GLM-5.1 · Brazil vs Haiti

BrazilvsHaiti
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: PreviewInvestment source version: Late
PredictionHome win82%Hit
BetBet portfolio$580Bet portfolio
Post-match result3-0
Net P&L-$120.8
PredictionConfidence: 82%
Home win

All three perspectives agree that Brazil are strong favourites to beat Haiti, and the bookmaker consensus assigns Brazil an 86.6% implied win probability reflecting the substantial quality and form gap. Brazil average 2.6 goals per match over their last five compared to Haiti's 1.2, and both sides concede at a similar rate, making Brazil's attacking superiority decisive. However, confidence is tempered below the market implied level because Brazil drew their World Cup opener 1-1 against Morocco rather than dominating, and Haiti held Scotland to a narrow 0-1 defeat, showing some defensive organisation against stronger opposition. Missing lineup, head-to-head and weather data add further uncertainty to the heavy-favourite scenario. The most likely scorelines reflect Brazil's attacking edge with a clean sheet, though a 2-1 outcome remains plausible if Haiti exploit limited competitive-match frailty.

Bet
Bet portfolio$5802 bets
Net P&L-$120.8
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Home win

    $410
    odds 1.12Settled: win+$49.2

    Betting rationale：Posture: favorite conviction. Brazil drew their opener vs Morocco and now face Haiti — a side that lost to Scotland and has only one competitive win in recent memory. Brazil's attacking quality (6-2 vs Panama, 3-1 vs Croatia) should dominate Haiti's fragile defense under warm, dry Philadelphia conditions. The model gives 85% win probability vs 89% implied — negative edge on pure pricing, but this is a tournament group-stage must-win for Brazil after dropping points. The draw trap is already hedg

    Payout: $459.2 · Balance after: $8,620.9

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $170
    odds 11.49Settled: loss-$170

    Betting rationale：Draw trap angle: Brazil drew their World Cup opener 1-1 vs Morocco, showing they can struggle to dominate mid-tier opposition, while Haiti held Scotland to a narrow 0-1 loss, revealing some defensive compactness. Model assigns draw 12% vs Pinnacle's implied ~8.7%, yielding a +0.033 edge at 11.49 payout — the best executable value in this market. Brazil at 1.100 carries negative edge (-0.089) and minimal return; Haiti win at 21.53 has tiny edge (+0.014) but no convincing upset script. A draw at ~

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,161.7

Post-match result3-0
Outcome hitScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 82%Draw 12%Away win 6%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #12-0
  2. #23-0Hit
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - Across 14 odds samples from bookmakers including bet365, william_hill and 10bet, Brazil is priced at roughly 1.09–1.10, the draw at 9.5–11 and Haiti at 18–25, yielding an 86.6% implied probability for a Brazil win. The slight positive drift on Brazil's implied probability (+0.21pp) and the corresponding small declines on draw and Haiti outcomes indicate the market is tightening around a dominant Brazil win, not narrowing toward a more competitive contest. Haiti's recent form of only 3 wins in 10
  • - Brazil's recent form is substantially superior in both results and goal output (3W 1D 1L, 2.6 goals per match) compared to Haiti's 1W 1D 3L with 1.2 goals per match. Both teams concede at the same rate (1.4 per match), but Brazil's attacking superiority makes that far less costly. The only competitive World Cup result for Brazil was a draw against Morocco, a much stronger opponent than Haiti, whereas Haiti lost 0-1 to Scotland in their competitive match. Odds consensus of 86.6% for a Brazil win
  • - The market consensus gives Brazil an 86.6% win probability, reflecting the substantial quality gap between the two sides. Brazil's recent form includes dominant friendly wins over Panama, South Korea and Croatia, but their World Cup opener was a 1-1 draw versus Morocco, suggesting they can underperform in competitive matches. Haiti lost only 0-1 to Scotland in their WC opener, indicating some defensive resilience, yet their broader record against decent opposition is consistently poor. The absen

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bra mar group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Brazil win with confidence 0.56. Probability distribution: Brazil win 56.0%; draw 26.0%; Morocco win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Brazil 2-1 Morocco, Brazil 1-0 Morocco, Brazil 1
  • - Recall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Scotland win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: Haiti win 15.0%; draw 21.0%; Scotland win 64.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 0-2 Scotland, Haiti 0-1 Scotland, Haiti
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.05Log loss 0.20

Meta thinking

  • Market odds pricingAnalyze the 14 captured odds observations to determine implied probability distribution and market consensus on outcome likelihood, checking whether pricing reflects the visible quality gap or suggests narrower expectations.
  • Recent form and scoring patternsCompare the 5 visible recent matches for Brazil (3W 1D 1L, 13 goals scored, 7 conceded) and Haiti (1W 1D 3L, 6 goals scored, 7 conceded), examining consistency, defensive vulnerabilities, and whether friendly dominance translates to competitive contexts.
  • Contrarian risk signals in apparent mismatchInvestigate whether visible evidence complicates the mismatch narrative: Brazil drew Morocco 1-1 in their WC opener rather than dominating, while Haiti lost only 0-1 to Scotland. Combined with the evaluator's high-confidence calibration of 0.667, explore whether a heavy-favorite scenario carries hidden risk based on captured data.

Tokens: 2991

Perspectives

Market odds pricingHome winAcross 14 odds samples from bookmakers including bet365, william_hill and 10bet, Brazil is priced at roughly 1.09–1.10, the draw at 9.5–11 and Haiti at 18–25, yielding an 86.6% implied probability for a Brazil win. The slight positive drift on Brazil's implied probability (+0.21pp) and the corresponding small declines on draw and Haiti outcomes indicate the market is tightening around a dominant Brazil win, not narrowing toward a more competitive contest. Haiti's recent form of only 3 wins in 1087%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds pricing

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. Fixture: Brazil vs HAI. Kickoff: 2026-06-20T00:30:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Brazil: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Brazil: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-18T20:01:40Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 86.6%, draw 9.1%, side B win 4.3%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-18T16:00:44Z -> 2026-06-18T20:01:40Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.21pp, draw -0.15pp, side B win -0.06pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.11 / draw 9.1 / side B 17.5 → side A 1.1 / draw 9.5 / side B 18; william_hill side A 1.1 / draw 10 / side B 21 → side A 1.1 / draw 10 / side B 23; bet365 side A 1.09 / draw 11 / side B 23 → side A 1.09 / draw 11 / side B 23. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.1, draw 9.5, side B 18; william_hill: side A 1.1, draw 10, side B 23; bet365: side A 1.09, draw 11, side B 23; marathonbet: side A 1.1, draw 11, side B 25. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 1.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 29; marathonbet: total 1.5 over 1.04 / under 6.75.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Brazil:

    • 2026-06-13T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Morocco, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Egypt, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T21:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away home, score 6-2, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-18T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-14T10:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2025-10-10T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2024-07-07T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Uruguay, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-14T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Nations League, against Puerto Rico, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Across 14 odds samples from bookmakers including bet365, william_hill and 10bet, Brazil is priced at roughly 1.09–1.10, the draw at 9.5–11 and Haiti at 18–25, yielding an 86.6% implied probability for a Brazil win. The slight positive drift on Brazil's implied probability (+0.21pp) and the corresponding small declines on draw and Haiti outcomes indicate the market is tightening around a dominant Brazil win, not narrowing toward a more competitive contest. Haiti's recent form of only 3 wins in 10

Conclusion note

The 14 captured bookmaker observations produce a consensus implied probability of 86.6% for Brazil winning, 9.1% for a draw and 4.3% for Haiti, with the latest movement drifting slightly further toward Brazil at +0.21 percentage points, confirming that market pricing fully reflects the large quality gap rather than suggesting narrower expectations.

Recent form and scoring patternsHome winBrazil's recent form is substantially superior in both results and goal output (3W 1D 1L, 2.6 goals per match) compared to Haiti's 1W 1D 3L with 1.2 goals per match. Both teams concede at the same rate (1.4 per match), but Brazil's attacking superiority makes that far less costly. The only competitive World Cup result for Brazil was a draw against Morocco, a much stronger opponent than Haiti, whereas Haiti lost 0-1 to Scotland in their competitive match. Odds consensus of 86.6% for a Brazil win85%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form and scoring patterns

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. Fixture: Brazil vs HAI. Kickoff: 2026-06-20T00:30:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Brazil: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Brazil: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-18T20:01:40Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 86.6%, draw 9.1%, side B win 4.3%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-18T16:00:44Z -> 2026-06-18T20:01:40Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.21pp, draw -0.15pp, side B win -0.06pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.11 / draw 9.1 / side B 17.5 → side A 1.1 / draw 9.5 / side B 18; william_hill side A 1.1 / draw 10 / side B 21 → side A 1.1 / draw 10 / side B 23; bet365 side A 1.09 / draw 11 / side B 23 → side A 1.09 / draw 11 / side B 23. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.1, draw 9.5, side B 18; william_hill: side A 1.1, draw 10, side B 23; bet365: side A 1.09, draw 11, side B 23; marathonbet: side A 1.1, draw 11, side B 25. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 1.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 29; marathonbet: total 1.5 over 1.04 / under 6.75.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Brazil:

    • 2026-06-13T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Morocco, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Egypt, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T21:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away home, score 6-2, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-18T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-14T10:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2025-10-10T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2024-07-07T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Uruguay, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-14T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Nations League, against Puerto Rico, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.

  10. Brazil's recent form is substantially superior in both results and goal output (3W 1D 1L, 2.6 goals per match) compared to Haiti's 1W 1D 3L with 1.2 goals per match. Both teams concede at the same rate (1.4 per match), but Brazil's attacking superiority makes that far less costly. The only competitive World Cup result for Brazil was a draw against Morocco, a much stronger opponent than Haiti, whereas Haiti lost 0-1 to Scotland in their competitive match. Odds consensus of 86.6% for a Brazil win

Conclusion note

Brazil's last five matches show 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss with 13 goals scored and 7 conceded, while Haiti's last five show only 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses with 6 goals scored and 7 conceded; bookmaker consensus assigns Brazil an 86.6% implied win probability, reflecting the large quality and form gap between the sides.

Contrarian risk signals in apparent mismatchHome winThe market consensus gives Brazil an 86.6% win probability, reflecting the substantial quality gap between the two sides. Brazil's recent form includes dominant friendly wins over Panama, South Korea and Croatia, but their World Cup opener was a 1-1 draw versus Morocco, suggesting they can underperform in competitive matches. Haiti lost only 0-1 to Scotland in their WC opener, indicating some defensive resilience, yet their broader record against decent opposition is consistently poor. The absen75%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Contrarian risk signals in apparent mismatch

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. Fixture: Brazil vs HAI. Kickoff: 2026-06-20T00:30:00Z. Venue: Philadelphia Stadium, Philadelphia, altitude 3 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Brazil: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Brazil: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Haiti: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. Visible odds update points: 10, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-18T20:01:40Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 86.6%, draw 9.1%, side B win 4.3%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-18T16:00:44Z -> 2026-06-18T20:01:40Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.21pp, draw -0.15pp, side B win -0.06pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.11 / draw 9.1 / side B 17.5 → side A 1.1 / draw 9.5 / side B 18; william_hill side A 1.1 / draw 10 / side B 21 → side A 1.1 / draw 10 / side B 23; bet365 side A 1.09 / draw 11 / side B 23 → side A 1.09 / draw 11 / side B 23. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.1, draw 9.5, side B 18; william_hill: side A 1.1, draw 10, side B 23; bet365: side A 1.09, draw 11, side B 23; marathonbet: side A 1.1, draw 11, side B 25. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 1.5 over 1.08 / under 7.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 29; marathonbet: total 1.5 over 1.04 / under 6.75.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Brazil:

    • 2026-06-13T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Morocco, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T22:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Egypt, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2026-05-31T21:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away home, score 6-2, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-26T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-18T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-11-15T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Senegal, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-14T10:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Japan, home/away away, score 2-3, result loss.
    • 2025-10-10T11:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2024-07-07T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Uruguay, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-19T00:30:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Haiti:

    • 2026-06-14T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Scotland, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-06T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Peru, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-29T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-06-22T23:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against USA, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-06-19T22:45:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Trinidad and Tobago, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-06-16T00:15:00Z, competition CONCACAF Gold Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-03-22T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Azerbaijan, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-19T00:00:00Z, competition CONCACAF Nations League, against Puerto Rico, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.

  10. The market consensus gives Brazil an 86.6% win probability, reflecting the substantial quality gap between the two sides. Brazil's recent form includes dominant friendly wins over Panama, South Korea and Croatia, but their World Cup opener was a 1-1 draw versus Morocco, suggesting they can underperform in competitive matches. Haiti lost only 0-1 to Scotland in their WC opener, indicating some defensive resilience, yet their broader record against decent opposition is consistently poor. The absen

Conclusion note

Brazil are overwhelming favourites at 86.6% implied probability and clearly hold a large quality advantage over Haiti, but contrarian risk exists: Brazil drew their World Cup opener 1-1 against Morocco rather than dominating, and Haiti's 0-1 loss to Scotland in their opener shows they can remain organised against stronger opposition. No lineups, head-to-head data, or weather forecasts are available, which adds uncertainty to the heavy-favourite scenario.

Synthesis

All three perspectives agree that Brazil are strong favourites to beat Haiti, and the bookmaker consensus assigns Brazil an 86.6% implied win probability reflecting the substantial quality and form gap. Brazil average 2.6 goals per match over their last five compared to Haiti's 1.2, and both sides concede at a similar rate, making Brazil's attacking superiority decisive. However, confidence is tempered below the market implied level because Brazil drew their World Cup opener 1-1 against Morocco rather than dominating, and Haiti held Scotland to a narrow 0-1 defeat, showing some defensive organisation against stronger opposition. Missing lineup, head-to-head and weather data add further uncertainty to the heavy-favourite scenario. The most likely scorelines reflect Brazil's attacking edge with a clean sheet, though a 2-1 outcome remains plausible if Haiti exploit limited competitive-match frailty.

Reasoning summary: Brazil hold a clear quality and form advantage, scoring 2.6 goals per match versus Haiti's 1.2, with bookmakers pricing a Brazil win at roughly 86.6% implied probability across 14 samples. Recent form and the market both strongly favour Brazil. The contrarian perspective highlights two risk factors: Brazil's 1-1 draw against Morocco in their competitive opener suggests potential underperformance in tournament matches, and Haiti's narrow 0-1 loss to Scotland indicates defensive resilience that co

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Brazil vs Morocco Preview editionRecall anchors: bra mar group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Brazil win with confidence 0.56. Probability distribution: Brazil win 56.0%; draw 26.0%; Morocco win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Brazil 2-1 Morocco, Brazil 1-0 Morocco, Brazil 1relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Haiti vs Scotland Preview editionRecall anchors: hai sco group_c_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Scotland win with confidence 0.64. Probability distribution: Haiti win 15.0%; draw 21.0%; Scotland win 64.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Haiti 0-2 Scotland, Haiti 0-1 Scotland, Haiti relevance 0.50