DeepSeek V4 Pro · USA vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

USAvsBosnia & Herzegovina
DeepSeek
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Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win70%Miss
BetHome win$430Aligned
Post-match result1-0 after extra time
Net P&L-$430
PredictionConfidence: 70%
Home win

Spain enter the knockout stage unbeaten in ten matches with quality wins over Uruguay, Denmark, Switzerland and Serbia, while Austria's only loss in the same span came against world champions Argentina — the one top-tier opponent they faced. The betting market assigns Spain roughly a 72% implied win probability, with odds tightening further in latest updates. There is some uncertainty: Spain were held to draws by Cape Verde Islands, Iraq and Egypt, and Austria's attack has been prolific against mid-level opponents and scored three against Algeria. However, the decisive weight of form against stronger sides and the overwhelming market consensus support a Spain victory within 90 minutes. A low-scoring Spain win, such as 2-0 or 1-0, appears the most likely outcome.

Bet
Home win$430
Net P&L-$430
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $430
    odds 1.33Settled: loss-$430

    Betting rationale：Posture: favorite conviction. Spain enter this round-of-32 knockout unbeaten in ten, with real quality wins over Uruguay, Denmark, Switzerland, and Serbia. Austria's only recent loss to a top-tier side came against Argentina — and they conceded twice without reply. Spain's recent draws against minnows (Cape Verde, Iraq, Egypt) are a mild concern, but knockout football sharpens focus, and Austria lack the individual class to punish Spain the way Argentina did. The 1.33 execution price is short bu

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $13,345.6

Post-match result1-0 after extra time
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 70%Draw 20%Away win 10%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - Spain's recent form includes wins over Uruguay, Denmark, Switzerland and Serbia, showing they can beat quality sides, while Austria's only loss came against Argentina and their other high-scoring results were against weaker teams. Odds heavily favour Spain (72% implied probability, with the market drifting further toward Spain in the latest updates). Spain's three draws against weaker opposition and Austria's attacking threat introduce some uncertainty, but the gap in both opponent quality and m
  • - The odds consensus is decisive: Spain's win price sits in a razor-thin 1.30–1.33 band across all sampled bookmakers, implying ~72% probability, with bet365's late shortening reinforcing the trend. Austria's double-digit odds (9.00–10.50) and their group-stage loss to Argentina align with the market's skepticism. The draw at 4.75–5.30 is a distant second. With no contrary evidence from form, availability, or venue, the market's strong signal points firmly to a Spain victory within 90 minutes, tho

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.88. Probability distribution: Spain win 88.3%; draw 8.2%; Cape Verde Islands win 3.5%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 2-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 3-0
  • - Recall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.87. Probability distribution: Spain win 87.0%; draw 9.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 4.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 2-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 3-0 C
  • - Recall anchors: aut jor group_j_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Austria win with confidence 0.75. Probability distribution: Austria win 75.0%; draw 18.0%; Jordan win 7.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Austria 2-0 Jordan, Austria 1-0 Jordan, Austria
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 1.14Log loss 1.61

Meta thinking

  • Recent match results and quality of oppositionEvaluate Spain's performances (1-0 win at Uruguay, 4-0 win vs Saudi Arabia, 0-0 draw vs Cape Verde Islands, and draws against Iraq and Egypt) alongside Austria's results (3-3 draw at Algeria, 0-2 loss at Argentina, 3-1 win vs Jordan, and friendly wins vs Tunisia and South Korea) to assess current form, offensive output, defensive stability, and the relative strength of opponents faced in the run-up to this knockout match.
  • Market odds and consensus across bookmakersAnalyze the 12 captured odds for the Spain vs Austria match to gauge market sentiment, extract implied probabilities for each outcome, spot any outliers or large disagreements between bookmakers, and consider whether the odds align with the evidence from recent form.

Tokens: 3662

Perspectives

Recent match results and quality of oppositionHome winSpain's recent form includes wins over Uruguay, Denmark, Switzerland and Serbia, showing they can beat quality sides, while Austria's only loss came against Argentina and their other high-scoring results were against weaker teams. Odds heavily favour Spain (72% implied probability, with the market drifting further toward Spain in the latest updates). Spain's three draws against weaker opposition and Austria's attacking threat introduce some uncertainty, but the gap in both opponent quality and m70%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent match results and quality of opposition

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Spain vs AUT. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T19:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Spain: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Spain: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Austria: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Austria: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-07-01T16:15:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 72%, draw 18.6%, side B win 9.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-07-01T12:01:26Z -> 2026-07-01T16:15:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.09pp, draw +0.03pp, side B win -0.12pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.33 / draw 4.75 / side B 9.5 → side A 1.33 / draw 4.75 / side B 9.5; william_hill side A 1.33 / draw 4.8 / side B 9 → side A 1.33 / draw 4.8 / side B 9; bet365 side A 1.33 / draw 5.25 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.3 / draw 5.25 / side B 10. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.33, draw 4.75, side B 9.5; william_hill: side A 1.33, draw 4.8, side B 9; bet365: side A 1.3, draw 5.25, side B 10; marathonbet: side A 1.33, draw 5.3, side B 10.5. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 1.0 over 1.01 / under 9.3.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Spain:

    • 2026-06-27T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Uruguay, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-21T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Cape Verde Islands, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iraq, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Egypt, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-18T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-15T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Denmark, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-15T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-12T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Denmark, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Austria:

    • 2026-06-28T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Algeria, home/away away, score 3-3, result draw.
    • 2026-06-22T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Argentina, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-17T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Jordan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-01T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ghana, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-14T15:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-13T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Norway, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.

  10. Check team ranking facts

    #9

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-07-02 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-07-02 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check tournament context

    #11

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z. Group context for the current match is unavailable: the match is not a resolvable group-stage fixture.

  13. Spain vs Austria — evaluating recent form and opposition quality. Spain unbeaten in 10 (W7 D3), with quality wins over Uruguay, Denmark, Switzerland and Serbia. Austria also strong (W7 D2 L1) but the only top-tier opponent faced was Argentina, who beat them 0-2. Spain's draws against Cape Verde Islands, Iraq and Egypt are mild concerns but did not result in defeat. Odds heavily favor Spain at ~72% implied probability. The market and form gap both point to a Spain win, though Austria's attacking

  14. Spain's recent form includes wins over Uruguay, Denmark, Switzerland and Serbia, showing they can beat quality sides, while Austria's only loss came against Argentina and their other high-scoring results were against weaker teams. Odds heavily favour Spain (72% implied probability, with the market drifting further toward Spain in the latest updates). Spain's three draws against weaker opposition and Austria's attacking threat introduce some uncertainty, but the gap in both opponent quality and m

Conclusion note

Spain enter the knockout stage unbeaten in ten matches with quality wins over Uruguay, Denmark, Switzerland and Serbia, while Austria's only loss in the same span came against world champions Argentina — the one top-tier opponent they have faced. The betting market assigns Spain a roughly 72% implied win probability, and although Spain were held to draws by Cape Verde Islands, Iraq and Egypt, they have not been beaten; Austria's high-scoring record (25 goals in 10) was built largely against mid-level opposition and their defence conceded three against Algeria. The weight of both form against stronger opponents and the decisive odds consensus supports a Spain victory.

Market odds and consensus across bookmakersHome winThe odds consensus is decisive: Spain's win price sits in a razor-thin 1.30–1.33 band across all sampled bookmakers, implying ~72% probability, with bet365's late shortening reinforcing the trend. Austria's double-digit odds (9.00–10.50) and their group-stage loss to Argentina align with the market's skepticism. The draw at 4.75–5.30 is a distant second. With no contrary evidence from form, availability, or venue, the market's strong signal points firmly to a Spain victory within 90 minutes, tho70%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds and consensus across bookmakers

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Spain vs AUT. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T19:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Spain: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Spain: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Austria: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Austria: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-07-01T16:15:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 72%, draw 18.6%, side B win 9.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-07-01T12:01:26Z -> 2026-07-01T16:15:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.09pp, draw +0.03pp, side B win -0.12pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.33 / draw 4.75 / side B 9.5 → side A 1.33 / draw 4.75 / side B 9.5; william_hill side A 1.33 / draw 4.8 / side B 9 → side A 1.33 / draw 4.8 / side B 9; bet365 side A 1.33 / draw 5.25 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.3 / draw 5.25 / side B 10. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.33, draw 4.75, side B 9.5; william_hill: side A 1.33, draw 4.8, side B 9; bet365: side A 1.3, draw 5.25, side B 10; marathonbet: side A 1.33, draw 5.3, side B 10.5. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 1.0 over 1.01 / under 9.3.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Spain:

    • 2026-06-27T00:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Uruguay, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-21T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Saudi Arabia, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-15T16:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Cape Verde Islands, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iraq, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-31T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Egypt, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-11-18T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 3-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-15T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Denmark, home/away away, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-15T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Serbia, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-12T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Denmark, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Austria:

    • 2026-06-28T02:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Algeria, home/away away, score 3-3, result draw.
    • 2026-06-22T17:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Argentina, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-06-17T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Jordan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-06-01T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ghana, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-14T15:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-13T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Norway, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.

  10. Check match details

    #9

    Match details: Data as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z. Fixture: Spain vs AUT. Kickoff: 2026-07-02T19:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (12 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-07-02 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-07-02 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  13. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #12

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-07-01T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 12 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-07-01T16:15:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 72%, draw 18.6%, side B win 9.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-07-01T12:01:26Z -> 2026-07-01T16:15:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.09pp, draw +0.03pp, side B win -0.12pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.33 / draw 4.75 / side B 9.5 → side A 1.33 / draw 4.75 / side B 9.5; william_hill side A 1.33 / draw 4.8 / side B 9 → side A 1.33 / draw 4.8 / side B 9; bet365 side A 1.33 / draw 5.25 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.3 / draw 5.25 / side B 10. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.33, draw 4.75, side B 9.5; william_hill: side A 1.33, draw 4.8, side B 9; bet365: side A 1.3, draw 5.25, side B 10; marathonbet: side A 1.33, draw 5.3, side B 10.5. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 1.0 over 1.01 / under 9.3.

  14. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  15. The odds consensus is decisive: Spain's win price sits in a razor-thin 1.30–1.33 band across all sampled bookmakers, implying ~72% probability, with bet365's late shortening reinforcing the trend. Austria's double-digit odds (9.00–10.50) and their group-stage loss to Argentina align with the market's skepticism. The draw at 4.75–5.30 is a distant second. With no contrary evidence from form, availability, or venue, the market's strong signal points firmly to a Spain victory within 90 minutes, tho

Conclusion note

Across 12 bookmakers, the market overwhelmingly favors Spain with an implied win probability of 72%, reflected in tightly clustered odds of 1.30–1.33. Bet365's recent move from 1.33 to 1.30 on Spain and from 8.50 to 10.00 on Austria signals growing market conviction behind the favorite, while Austria's only recent defeat came against Argentina — the one elite side they faced. No injury, suspension, or head-to-head evidence is available to contradict the market consensus, though the absence of lineup and weather data tempers certainty.

Synthesis

Spain enter the knockout stage unbeaten in ten matches with quality wins over Uruguay, Denmark, Switzerland and Serbia, while Austria's only loss in the same span came against world champions Argentina — the one top-tier opponent they faced. The betting market assigns Spain roughly a 72% implied win probability, with odds tightening further in latest updates. There is some uncertainty: Spain were held to draws by Cape Verde Islands, Iraq and Egypt, and Austria's attack has been prolific against mid-level opponents and scored three against Algeria. However, the decisive weight of form against stronger sides and the overwhelming market consensus support a Spain victory within 90 minutes. A low-scoring Spain win, such as 2-0 or 1-0, appears the most likely outcome.

Reasoning summary: Both perspective summaries give a 0.70 confidence to a Spain win, highlighting their superior recent results against quality opponents and a strong market signal implying a ~72% win probability. Austria’s only loss in the same period came against elite side Argentina, and their high goal tally was built largely against weaker teams. No contradictory injury or disciplinary evidence is present. The main evidence tradeoff is Spain’s three draws against lesser sides and Austria’s attacking threat, w

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Spain vs Cape Verde Islands Actionable editionRecall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.88. Probability distribution: Spain win 88.3%; draw 8.2%; Cape Verde Islands win 3.5%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 2-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 3-0relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Spain vs Cape Verde Islands Preview editionRecall anchors: esp cpv group_h_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Spain win with confidence 0.87. Probability distribution: Spain win 87.0%; draw 9.0%; Cape Verde Islands win 4.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Spain 2-0 Cape Verde Islands, Spain 3-0 Crelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Austria vs Jordan Preview editionRecall anchors: aut jor group_j_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Austria win with confidence 0.75. Probability distribution: Austria win 75.0%; draw 18.0%; Jordan win 7.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Austria 2-0 Jordan, Austria 1-0 Jordan, Austria relevance 0.50