GLM-5.1 · Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Qatar

Bosnia & HerzegovinavsQatar
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: ActionableInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionHome win63%Hit
BetDraw$560Reverse
Post-match result3-1
Net P&L-$560
PredictionConfidence: 63%
Home win

Both perspectives agree on Bosnia & Herzegovina winning, supported by bookmaker consensus at roughly 67.5% implied probability and Qatar's dire form with zero wins in ten matches and a 0-6 defeat to Canada. Qatar's two confirmed suspensions, Homam Al-Amin and Assim Madibo, further weaken their defensive structure. Confidence is moderated because Bosnia themselves have only one win in ten, lost Muharemović to a red-card suspension, and recent results include a 1-4 loss to Switzerland. The neutral Seattle venue offers no home advantage to either side, but Qatar's cumulative weaknesses outweigh Bosnia's modest record.

Bet
Draw$5603 bets
Net P&L-$560
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $240
    odds 5.29Settled: loss-$240

    Betting rationale：Draw-trap posture. The market has overreacted to Qatar's catastrophic 0-6 loss to Canada and squad suspensions, pricing Bosnia at 1.390 (implied ~72%) while the model assigns only 60% win probability, producing a -11.9% edge on the favorite at execution. However, Bosnia's own form is deeply shaky: 1-4 loss to Switzerland, draws with Canada and Panama, and only 1 goal scored in 3 of their last 4 matches. Qatar held Switzerland 1-1, showing they can compete when organized. The draw at 5.290 carrie

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,437.2

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $190
    odds 5.28Settled: loss-$190

    Betting rationale：Supplementary draw position on a neutral-venue match between two struggling sides. Qatar are in dire form (0-6 loss to Canada, zero wins in 10, two key suspensions) but Bosnia are themselves mediocre (1 win in 10, just lost 1-4 to Switzerland). At Seattle with no home advantage for either team, a tight, low-quality contest where neither side imposes itself is a realistic script. Execution draw odds at 5.280 carry the only positive model edge (+6.1%), undervaluing the draw at ~19% implied versus

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,437.2

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $130
    odds 5.60Settled: loss-$130

    Betting rationale：Supplement existing draw position ($430 at ~5.285) with a small add at the better 5.600 execution price. Draw remains the only side with positive model edge (+0.041). Match script supports it: Bosnia's terrible overall form (1 win in 10) doesn't justify heavy favorite pricing; neutral Seattle venue; Qatar drew Switzerland 1-1 while Bosnia lost 4-1 to the same opponent; both teams倾向 low-scoring cautious games. Total draw exposure rises to ~$560 (~6.5% of balance), within normal-to-strong convicti

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,437.2

Post-match result3-1
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 63%Draw 25%Away win 12%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - The odds consensus strongly favors Bosnia & Herzegovina at 67.5% implied probability with no detectable movement, and Qatar's recent form is worse (0-6 vs Canada, 0-3 vs Tunisia) combined with two confirmed suspensions reducing their defensive options. Bosnia also has a suspension (Muharemović red card) and mixed recent form (1-4 vs Switzerland, 1-1 vs Canada), which tempers confidence. The neutral Seattle venue does not shift advantage to either side. Given the cumulative evidence of Qatar's po
  • - The market consensus assigns Bosnia & Herzegovina roughly a 67.5% win probability against Qatar's 13.1%, with stable odds across multiple bookmakers and no movement between the two visible update times. Qatar's on-field evidence reinforces the market view: no wins in ten, a 0-6 defeat to Canada, and two key suspensions weaken their squad further. Bosnia's own form is uninspiring (1 win, 4 draws, 5 losses) and they also lose defender Muharemović to a red-card suspension, which tempers confidence,

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: qat sui group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Switzerland win with confidence 0.60. Probability distribution: Qatar win 18.0%; draw 22.0%; Switzerland win 60.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Qatar 0-2 Switzerland, Qatar 0-1 Switzer
  • - Recall anchors: qat sui group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Switzerland win with confidence 0.75. Probability distribution: Qatar win 9.0%; draw 16.0%; Switzerland win 75.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Qatar 0-1 Switzerland, Qatar 0-2 Switze
  • - Recall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.54. Probability distribution: Canada win 54.0%; draw 27.5%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 18.5%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina,
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.21Log loss 0.46

Meta thinking

  • rationalUse structured match, odds and team context.
  • marketCross-check the prediction against bookmaker odds.

Tokens: 64

Perspectives

rationalHome winThe odds consensus strongly favors Bosnia & Herzegovina at 67.5% implied probability with no detectable movement, and Qatar's recent form is worse (0-6 vs Canada, 0-3 vs Tunisia) combined with two confirmed suspensions reducing their defensive options. Bosnia also has a suspension (Muharemović red card) and mixed recent form (1-4 vs Switzerland, 1-1 vs Canada), which tempers confidence. The neutral Seattle venue does not shift advantage to either side. Given the cumulative evidence of Qatar's po65%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    rational

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. Fixture: Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar. Kickoff: 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-23T19:14:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (3 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-24T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Bosnia & Herzegovina injuries/availability: T. Muharemović (Defender, #4) status questionable.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina discipline/suspensions: Tarik Muharemović is suspended for the subsequent match due to a red card (from 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z / Switzerland; no extra sanction inferred).
    • Qatar injuries/availability: Homam Ahmed (Defender, #14) status questionable; Assim Madibo (Midfielder, #23) status questionable.
    • Qatar discipline/suspensions: Homam Al-Amin is suspended for the subsequent match due to a red card (from 2026-06-18T22:00:00Z / Canada; no extra sanction inferred); Assim Madibo is suspended for the subsequent match due to a red card (from 2026-06-18T22:00:00Z / Canada; no extra sanction inferred).

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 16, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-24T08:03:18Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 67.5%, draw 19.4%, side B win 13.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T06:00:13Z -> 2026-06-24T08:03:18Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.41 / draw 4.6 / side B 7 → side A 1.41 / draw 4.6 / side B 7; william_hill side A 1.4 / draw 4.75 / side B 7 → side A 1.4 / draw 4.75 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.4 / draw 5 / side B 7.5 → side A 1.4 / draw 5 / side B 7.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.41, draw 4.6, side B 7; william_hill: side A 1.4, draw 4.75, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.4, draw 5, side B 7.5; marathonbet: side A 1.42, draw 5.2, side B 7.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.08 / under 6.55.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-24T12:10:49Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 26.3°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 41%, wind 7.6 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Qatar:

    • 2026-06-18T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 0-6, result loss.
    • 2026-06-13T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against El Salvador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-05-28T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-07T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2025-12-04T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Syria, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-01T15:45:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Palestine, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-11-17T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-07T15:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2025-09-03T15:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.

  10. The odds consensus strongly favors Bosnia & Herzegovina at 67.5% implied probability with no detectable movement, and Qatar's recent form is worse (0-6 vs Canada, 0-3 vs Tunisia) combined with two confirmed suspensions reducing their defensive options. Bosnia also has a suspension (Muharemović red card) and mixed recent form (1-4 vs Switzerland, 1-1 vs Canada), which tempers confidence. The neutral Seattle venue does not shift advantage to either side. Given the cumulative evidence of Qatar's po

Conclusion note

Bosnia & Herzegovina is favored at 67.5% by bookmaker consensus and faces a Qatar side that conceded six goals against Canada and has two confirmed red-card suspensions (Homam Al-Amin and Assim Madibo), though Bosnia's own recent form is modest with one draw and one heavy loss in this tournament.

marketHome winThe market consensus assigns Bosnia & Herzegovina roughly a 67.5% win probability against Qatar's 13.1%, with stable odds across multiple bookmakers and no movement between the two visible update times. Qatar's on-field evidence reinforces the market view: no wins in ten, a 0-6 defeat to Canada, and two key suspensions weaken their squad further. Bosnia's own form is uninspiring (1 win, 4 draws, 5 losses) and they also lose defender Muharemović to a red-card suspension, which tempers confidence,65%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. Fixture: Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Qatar. Kickoff: 2026-06-24T19:00:00Z. Venue: Seattle Stadium, Seattle, altitude 4 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-23T19:14:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (3 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-24T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Bosnia & Herzegovina injuries/availability: T. Muharemović (Defender, #4) status questionable.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina discipline/suspensions: Tarik Muharemović is suspended for the subsequent match due to a red card (from 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z / Switzerland; no extra sanction inferred).
    • Qatar injuries/availability: Homam Ahmed (Defender, #14) status questionable; Assim Madibo (Midfielder, #23) status questionable.
    • Qatar discipline/suspensions: Homam Al-Amin is suspended for the subsequent match due to a red card (from 2026-06-18T22:00:00Z / Canada; no extra sanction inferred); Assim Madibo is suspended for the subsequent match due to a red card (from 2026-06-18T22:00:00Z / Canada; no extra sanction inferred).

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 16, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-24T08:03:18Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 67.5%, draw 19.4%, side B win 13.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-24T06:00:13Z -> 2026-06-24T08:03:18Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.41 / draw 4.6 / side B 7 → side A 1.41 / draw 4.6 / side B 7; william_hill side A 1.4 / draw 4.75 / side B 7 → side A 1.4 / draw 4.75 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.4 / draw 5 / side B 7.5 → side A 1.4 / draw 5 / side B 7.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.41, draw 4.6, side B 7; william_hill: side A 1.4, draw 4.75, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.4, draw 5, side B 7.5; marathonbet: side A 1.42, draw 5.2, side B 7.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 11; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.02 / under 17; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.08 / under 6.55.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-24T12:10:49Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 26.3°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 41%, wind 7.6 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-18T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-24T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Qatar:

    • 2026-06-18T22:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Canada, home/away away, score 0-6, result loss.
    • 2026-06-13T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Switzerland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against El Salvador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-05-28T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-12-07T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2025-12-04T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Syria, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-12-01T15:45:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Palestine, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-11-17T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Zimbabwe, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-07T15:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away home, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2025-09-03T15:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Bahrain, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.

  10. The market consensus assigns Bosnia & Herzegovina roughly a 67.5% win probability against Qatar's 13.1%, with stable odds across multiple bookmakers and no movement between the two visible update times. Qatar's on-field evidence reinforces the market view: no wins in ten, a 0-6 defeat to Canada, and two key suspensions weaken their squad further. Bosnia's own form is uninspiring (1 win, 4 draws, 5 losses) and they also lose defender Muharemović to a red-card suspension, which tempers confidence,

Conclusion note

Bookmaker odds firmly favour Bosnia & Herzegovina at around 67.5% implied probability with no visible movement between update snapshots, and Qatar's recent form includes zero wins in ten matches alongside a 0-6 World Cup loss to Canada and two red-card suspensions (Homam Al-Amin and Assim Madibo), supporting the market's direction despite Bosnia's own modest record of one win in ten.

Synthesis

Both perspectives agree on Bosnia & Herzegovina winning, supported by bookmaker consensus at roughly 67.5% implied probability and Qatar's dire form with zero wins in ten matches and a 0-6 defeat to Canada. Qatar's two confirmed suspensions, Homam Al-Amin and Assim Madibo, further weaken their defensive structure. Confidence is moderated because Bosnia themselves have only one win in ten, lost Muharemović to a red-card suspension, and recent results include a 1-4 loss to Switzerland. The neutral Seattle venue offers no home advantage to either side, but Qatar's cumulative weaknesses outweigh Bosnia's modest record.

Reasoning summary: The rational and market perspectives both select Bosnia & Herzegovina at 0.65 confidence, citing bookmaker odds around 67.5%, Qatar's ten-match winless run including a 0-6 loss to Canada, and Qatar's two red-card suspensions. Bosnia's own poor form and Muharemović suspension temper confidence slightly. Recalled memory confirms Qatar's vulnerability against stronger sides and Bosnia's limited win rate against Canada. The synthesized probability favors Bosnia at 0.63, with 0.25 for a draw and 0.12

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Qatar vs Switzerland Preview editionRecall anchors: qat sui group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Switzerland win with confidence 0.60. Probability distribution: Qatar win 18.0%; draw 22.0%; Switzerland win 60.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Qatar 0-2 Switzerland, Qatar 0-1 Switzerrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Qatar vs Switzerland Actionable editionRecall anchors: qat sui group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Switzerland win with confidence 0.75. Probability distribution: Qatar win 9.0%; draw 16.0%; Switzerland win 75.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Qatar 0-1 Switzerland, Qatar 0-2 Switzerelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina Actionable editionRecall anchors: can bih group_b_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Canada win with confidence 0.54. Probability distribution: Canada win 54.0%; draw 27.5%; Bosnia & Herzegovina win 18.5%. Top-3 scorelines: Canada 1-0 Bosnia & Herzegovina, relevance 0.50