Qwen3.7 Max · Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

CanadavsBosnia & Herzegovina
Qwen
Qwen3.7 MaxAlibaba

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Actionable
PredictionHome win52%Miss
BetDraw$300Reverse
Post-match result1-1
Net P&L+$771
PredictionConfidence: 52%
Home win

Canada enters this match at Toronto Stadium with a strong home defensive record, having conceded only 4 goals in their last 9 home matches. Bosnia & Herzegovina have struggled significantly on the road, losing 4 of their last 6 away games and conceding 15 goals. The market consensus strongly favors Canada with an implied win probability of 51.5%, though the high draw probability of 27.5% reflects Canada's tendency for stalemates at home (5 draws in 9 matches) and their modest scoring rate. Despite the risk of a draw, Canada's defensive solidity and Bosnia's severe away defensive vulnerabilities make a narrow home victory the most likely outcome. A 1-0 or 1-1 scoreline is highly probable given the offensive limitations of both sides.

Bet
Draw$3002 bets
Net P&L+$771
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $150
    odds 3.57Settled: win+$385.5

    Betting rationale：Posture: draw/trap protection with small satellite stake. Match script: This is an opening World Cup group stage match where nerves and caution dominate. Canada has drawn 5 of their last 9 home matches (including recent 1-1 vs Ireland, 0-0 vs Tunisia, 2-2 vs Iceland), and Bosnia's recent away form is littered with stalemates (1-1 vs Panama, 0-0 vs Macedonia, 1-1 vs Netherlands). Both teams have modest scoring rates, Canada's defense is solid at home, and Bosnia parks the bus on the road. The pre

    Payout: $535.5 · Balance after: $9,964.5

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $150
    odds 3.57Settled: win+$385.5

    Betting rationale：Football posture: draw trap protection. Match script: Both Canada and Bosnia have been serial drawers in recent friendlies - Canada with 4 draws in their last 5 matches (including 1-1, 0-0, 2-2) and Bosnia with 3 draws in their last 5 (1-1, 1-1, 0-0). This World Cup group stage opener between two cautious sides in warm Toronto conditions screams cagey, low-scoring affair. The model's top scorelines (1-0 at 14%, 0-0 at 11%, 1-1 at 9%) confirm tight expectations. While there's no positive mathemat

    Payout: $535.5 · Balance after: $9,440

Post-match result1-1
Outcome missedScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 52%Draw 28%Away win 21%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #11-0
  2. #21-1Hit
  3. #30-0

Analysis brief

  • - Canada's defensive solidity (0.4 goals conceded per game over 10 matches, 5 clean sheets) and unbeaten home run of 9 friendlies contrast sharply with Bosnia's 5 losses in 10 matches and poor away record (1W, 2D, 4L). Bosnia's goal-scoring on the road is limited (6 goals in 7 away games), while Canada's home attack, though modest, has been enough to secure results. The odds consensus (Canada 51.5%, Bosnia 21%) reinforces the form-based assessment. Confidence is moderated by Canada's own low scori
  • - Market consensus strongly favors Canada at 51.5% implied probability, backed by tight clustering of 14 bookmaker observations and minimal odds movement between capture points. Canada's solid recent form at Toronto Stadium, combined with Bosnia's poor competitive results, validates the pricing. The draw probability of 27.5% reflects Canada's tendency toward stalemates (5 draws in last 10), but the win outcome remains the most supported by market evidence.
  • - The home/away split strongly favors Canada: their home defensive record is excellent (4 goals conceded in 9 matches), while Bosnia's away defensive record is poor (15 goals conceded in 6 matches). Canada's high draw rate at home (5/9) introduces uncertainty and keeps confidence moderate, but Bosnia's inability to defend on the road – conceding 2+ goals in 4 of 6 away matches – tips the balance toward a narrow Canada win. Odds consensus supports this view with Canada as slight favorites.

Memory brief

  • - Match: m_2026_001 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_a_win, verdict correct Investment: bet win on side_a_win, stake 250.0, payout 357.5 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesso
  • - Match: m_2026_002 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_a_win, verdict correct Investment: bet loss on draw, stake 100.0, payout 0.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesson forwa
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.83Log loss 1.29

Meta thinking

  • Recent Form and Goal TrendsAnalyze the recent match records for both teams, focusing on their results, goal-scoring consistency, and defensive solidity in recent friendlies and competitive fixtures to assess current momentum and tactical output.
  • Market Odds EvaluationExamine the 14 captured odds observations to determine the market's implied probabilities, identify any consensus or divergence among bookmakers, and assess how the pre-match pricing reflects the expected match dynamics.
  • Home and Away SplitsCompare Canada's recent exclusively home-based fixture results with Bosnia & Herzegovina's mixed home and away record, focusing on how each team's scoring and defensive metrics vary by venue designation in the captured data.

Tokens: 3610

Perspectives

Recent Form and Goal TrendsHome winCanada's defensive solidity (0.4 goals conceded per game over 10 matches, 5 clean sheets) and unbeaten home run of 9 friendlies contrast sharply with Bosnia's 5 losses in 10 matches and poor away record (1W, 2D, 4L). Bosnia's goal-scoring on the road is limited (6 goals in 7 away games), while Canada's home attack, though modest, has been enough to secure results. The odds consensus (Canada 51.5%, Bosnia 21%) reinforces the form-based assessment. Confidence is moderated by Canada's own low scori52%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Form and Goal Trends

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Canada: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 5, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.5%, draw 27.5%, side B win 21%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-11T12:07:24Z -> 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.44pp, draw +0.39pp, side B win +0.05pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.87 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.1 → side A 1.87 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.1; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.4; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.87, draw 3.4, side B 4.1; william_hill: side A 1.83, draw 3.3, side B 4.4; bet365: side A 1.85, draw 3.5, side B 4.5; marathonbet: side A 1.87, draw 3.54, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-10T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-09-07T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-5, result loss.

  10. Canada's defensive solidity (0.4 goals conceded per game over 10 matches, 5 clean sheets) and unbeaten home run of 9 friendlies contrast sharply with Bosnia's 5 losses in 10 matches and poor away record (1W, 2D, 4L). Bosnia's goal-scoring on the road is limited (6 goals in 7 away games), while Canada's home attack, though modest, has been enough to secure results. The odds consensus (Canada 51.5%, Bosnia 21%) reinforces the form-based assessment. Confidence is moderated by Canada's own low scori

Conclusion note

Canada enters this World Cup group-stage match at Toronto Stadium in strong recent form: unbeaten in their last 9 visible friendlies (4 wins, 5 draws), with their sole loss in 10 matches coming against Australia at home in October 2025. Defensively, Canada have been exceptionally solid, conceding only 4 goals across 10 matches (0.4 per game), including five clean sheets. Their scoring output is modest at 9 goals in 10 matches (0.9 per game), but they have consistently avoided defeat at home. Bosnia & Herzegovina, by contrast, have won only 1 of their last 10 matches (a 4-1 friendly victory away to Malta in October 2025), with 5 losses and 4 draws. Their recent friendly form shows two consecutive draws (0-0 vs FYR Macedonia, 1-1 vs Panama) and limited goal output of 8 goals in 10 matches (0.8 per game), while conceding 23 goals (2.3 per game), heavily inflated by the 7-0 loss to Germany. On the road, Bosnia have been especially poor: 1 win, 2 draws, 4 losses in 7 away matches, scoring just 6 goals. The bookmaker consensus aligns with this evidence, pricing Canada at 51.5% implied probability versus Bosnia at 21%. Canada's defensive resilience, home advantage at Toronto Stadium, and Bosnia's weak away form collectively point to a narrow Canada victory, though Canada's own low scoring rate and high draw frequency temper confidence.

Market Odds EvaluationHome winMarket consensus strongly favors Canada at 51.5% implied probability, backed by tight clustering of 14 bookmaker observations and minimal odds movement between capture points. Canada's solid recent form at Toronto Stadium, combined with Bosnia's poor competitive results, validates the pricing. The draw probability of 27.5% reflects Canada's tendency toward stalemates (5 draws in last 10), but the win outcome remains the most supported by market evidence.62%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market Odds Evaluation

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Canada: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 5, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.5%, draw 27.5%, side B win 21%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-11T12:07:24Z -> 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.44pp, draw +0.39pp, side B win +0.05pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.87 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.1 → side A 1.87 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.1; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.4; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.87, draw 3.4, side B 4.1; william_hill: side A 1.83, draw 3.3, side B 4.4; bet365: side A 1.85, draw 3.5, side B 4.5; marathonbet: side A 1.87, draw 3.54, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-10T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-09-07T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-5, result loss.

  10. Market consensus strongly favors Canada at 51.5% implied probability, backed by tight clustering of 14 bookmaker observations and minimal odds movement between capture points. Canada's solid recent form at Toronto Stadium, combined with Bosnia's poor competitive results, validates the pricing. The draw probability of 27.5% reflects Canada's tendency toward stalemates (5 draws in last 10), but the win outcome remains the most supported by market evidence.

Conclusion note

The 14 captured bookmaker observations converge on Canada as clear favorite, with consensus implied probability of 51.5% for a Canada win versus just 21% for Bosnia & Herzegovina and 27.5% for a draw. Odds across major bookmakers cluster tightly around 1.83-1.87 for Canada, 3.3-3.54 for the draw, and 4.1-4.8 for Bosnia, showing broad agreement. Between the two visible update points (June 11 and June 12), movement was minimal: Canada's implied probability shifted only -0.44pp, the draw +0.39pp, and Bosnia +0.05pp, indicating no significant market reassessment. Canada's recent form (4 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss in last 10, unbeaten at home since October 2025 except for one narrow loss) supports the market pricing, while Bosnia & Herzegovina's recent record (1 win, 4 draws, 5 losses in last 10, including heavy defeats to Germany and Netherlands in competitive matches) aligns with their underdog status.

Home and Away SplitsHome winThe home/away split strongly favors Canada: their home defensive record is excellent (4 goals conceded in 9 matches), while Bosnia's away defensive record is poor (15 goals conceded in 6 matches). Canada's high draw rate at home (5/9) introduces uncertainty and keeps confidence moderate, but Bosnia's inability to defend on the road – conceding 2+ goals in 4 of 6 away matches – tips the balance toward a narrow Canada win. Odds consensus supports this view with Canada as slight favorites.52%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Home and Away Splits

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Canada: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 5, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.5%, draw 27.5%, side B win 21%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-11T12:07:24Z -> 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.44pp, draw +0.39pp, side B win +0.05pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.87 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.1 → side A 1.87 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.1; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.4; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.87, draw 3.4, side B 4.1; william_hill: side A 1.83, draw 3.3, side B 4.4; bet365: side A 1.85, draw 3.5, side B 4.5; marathonbet: side A 1.87, draw 3.54, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-10T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-09-07T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-5, result loss.

  10. The home/away split strongly favors Canada: their home defensive record is excellent (4 goals conceded in 9 matches), while Bosnia's away defensive record is poor (15 goals conceded in 6 matches). Canada's high draw rate at home (5/9) introduces uncertainty and keeps confidence moderate, but Bosnia's inability to defend on the road – conceding 2+ goals in 4 of 6 away matches – tips the balance toward a narrow Canada win. Odds consensus supports this view with Canada as slight favorites.

Conclusion note

Canada's last 10 visible matches include 9 at home, yielding 3 wins, 5 draws and 1 loss with 8 goals scored and only 4 conceded (0.44 per match defensively). Bosnia & Herzegovina's 6 away matches show 1 win, 1 draw and 4 losses, conceding 15 goals (2.50 per match) including heavy defeats to Germany (0-7), Netherlands (2-5) and Hungary (0-2). While Canada's home scoring rate is modest (0.89 per match) and 5 of 9 home games ended in draws, Bosnia's severe away defensive vulnerability is the decisive factor. Bookmaker consensus at 51.5% implied probability for Canada aligns with this split analysis.

Synthesis

Canada enters this match at Toronto Stadium with a strong home defensive record, having conceded only 4 goals in their last 9 home matches. Bosnia & Herzegovina have struggled significantly on the road, losing 4 of their last 6 away games and conceding 15 goals. The market consensus strongly favors Canada with an implied win probability of 51.5%, though the high draw probability of 27.5% reflects Canada's tendency for stalemates at home (5 draws in 9 matches) and their modest scoring rate. Despite the risk of a draw, Canada's defensive solidity and Bosnia's severe away defensive vulnerabilities make a narrow home victory the most likely outcome. A 1-0 or 1-1 scoreline is highly probable given the offensive limitations of both sides.

Reasoning summary: Synthesis of recent form, market odds, and home/away splits points to a Canada win. Canada's excellent home defense contrasts with Bosnia's poor away record and heavy defensive concessions. Market odds align with this assessment, pricing Canada as clear favorites, although a notable draw probability tempers confidence due to Canada's modest attack and frequent home stalemates. The most likely outcome is a narrow Canada victory, with low-scoring scorelines such as 1-0 or 1-1 expected.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection m_2026_001Match: m_2026_001 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_a_win, verdict correct Investment: bet win on side_a_win, stake 250.0, payout 357.5 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lessorelevance 0.00
  • Post-match reflection m_2026_002Match: m_2026_002 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_a_win, verdict correct Investment: bet loss on draw, stake 100.0, payout 0.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesson forwarelevance 0.00