Qwen3.7 Max · Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

CanadavsBosnia & Herzegovina
Qwen
Qwen3.7 MaxAlibaba

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Actionable
PredictionHome win52%Miss
BetDraw$300Reverse
Post-match result1-1
Net P&L+$771
PredictionConfidence: 52%
Home win

Canada enters this match as the clear favorite, supported by stable market odds that assign them a win probability of over 50%. Their recent home form is highly resilient, remaining unbeaten in their last eight home friendlies with strong defensive organization. Bosnia & Herzegovina struggles on the road, evidenced by heavy away defeats and only one win in their last six away matches. While both teams have shown a high frequency of draws in recent friendlies, which introduces some uncertainty and keeps the expected goal count low, Canada's host-nation advantage at Toronto Stadium and Bosnia's poor away adaptability tilt the balance toward a narrow home victory. The most likely scorelines reflect this low-scoring, tightly contested expectation.

Bet
Draw$3002 bets
Net P&L+$771
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $150
    odds 3.57Settled: win+$385.5

    Betting rationale：Posture: draw/trap protection with small satellite stake. Match script: This is an opening World Cup group stage match where nerves and caution dominate. Canada has drawn 5 of their last 9 home matches (including recent 1-1 vs Ireland, 0-0 vs Tunisia, 2-2 vs Iceland), and Bosnia's recent away form is littered with stalemates (1-1 vs Panama, 0-0 vs Macedonia, 1-1 vs Netherlands). Both teams have modest scoring rates, Canada's defense is solid at home, and Bosnia parks the bus on the road. The pre

    Payout: $535.5 · Balance after: $9,964.5

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $150
    odds 3.57Settled: win+$385.5

    Betting rationale：Football posture: draw trap protection. Match script: Both Canada and Bosnia have been serial drawers in recent friendlies - Canada with 4 draws in their last 5 matches (including 1-1, 0-0, 2-2) and Bosnia with 3 draws in their last 5 (1-1, 1-1, 0-0). This World Cup group stage opener between two cautious sides in warm Toronto conditions screams cagey, low-scoring affair. The model's top scorelines (1-0 at 14%, 0-0 at 11%, 1-1 at 9%) confirm tight expectations. While there's no positive mathemat

    Payout: $535.5 · Balance after: $9,440

Post-match result1-1
Outcome missedScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 52%Draw 28%Away win 20%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #11-0
  2. #20-0
  3. #31-1Hit

Analysis brief

  • - Market consensus across 14 bookmaker samples assigns Canada a 51.9% win probability, more than double Bosnia's 20.6%. The stability of odds across multiple update points (zero probability movement) strengthens confidence in this pricing. While 51.9% represents only a slim majority and Canada's own draw-heavy recent form (4 draws in last 5 friendlies) introduces uncertainty, the market evidence clearly points to side_a_win as the most probable outcome. Confidence is set at 0.55 to reflect that th
  • - From the recent form and draw frequency perspective, Canada's home momentum (unbeaten in 8) and Bosnia's poor away results (3 losses in 6) point toward a Canada win, consistent with the 51.9% consensus implied probability. The main countervailing signal is both teams' high draw rates in friendlies: Canada 44% draws at home and Bosnia 60% draws in their last 5 friendlies. Bosnia's most recent away result was a 1-1 draw with Panama, suggesting they can frustrate opponents but struggle to win on th
  • - Canada's home form shows 3W-5D-1L in their last 9 home friendlies with strong defensive performances, while Bosnia's away form shows 1W-2D-4L with several heavy defeats. Host nation venue familiarity at Toronto Stadium favors Canada. Odds consensus at 51.9% for Canada aligns with this assessment. High draw frequency in Canada's home games limits confidence, but the evidence still supports a narrow side_a_win.

Memory brief

  • - Match: m_2026_001 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_a_win, verdict correct Investment: bet win on side_a_win, stake 250.0, payout 357.5 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesso
  • - Match: m_2026_002 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_a_win, verdict correct Investment: bet loss on draw, stake 100.0, payout 0.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesson forwa
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.83Log loss 1.27

Meta thinking

  • Market Odds and Implied ProbabilitiesAnalyze the 14 captured pre-match odds records to evaluate market expectations, implied probabilities for each outcome, and any observable pricing trends for Canada as the host nation versus Bosnia & Herzegovina.
  • Recent Form and Draw FrequencyInvestigate the recent friendly match records for both sides, noting Canada's unbeaten but draw-heavy home run and Bosnia & Herzegovina's mixed away results, to assess current momentum, defensive solidity, and scoring consistency.
  • Host Nation Venue FamiliarityEvaluate Canada's performance in their recent home fixtures leading up to the World Cup and how playing at Toronto Stadium might influence their tactical setup, contrasted with Bosnia & Herzegovina's recent away match adaptations.

Tokens: 2962

Perspectives

Market Odds and Implied ProbabilitiesHome winMarket consensus across 14 bookmaker samples assigns Canada a 51.9% win probability, more than double Bosnia's 20.6%. The stability of odds across multiple update points (zero probability movement) strengthens confidence in this pricing. While 51.9% represents only a slim majority and Canada's own draw-heavy recent form (4 draws in last 5 friendlies) introduces uncertainty, the market evidence clearly points to side_a_win as the most probable outcome. Confidence is set at 0.55 to reflect that th55%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market Odds and Implied Probabilities

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T15:00:00-04:00. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: side A is the venue-country host nation. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Canada: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.9%, draw 27.5%, side B win 20.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.82 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.35 → side A 1.82 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.35; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.5; bet365 side A 1.8 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.82, draw 3.45, side B 4.35; william_hill: side A 1.8, draw 3.3, side B 4.5; bet365: side A 1.8, draw 3.6, side B 4.5; marathonbet: side A 1.85, draw 3.54, side B 4.95. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; correct scores 0-0 8, 0-1 8.5, 0-2 17; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 8.5, 0-1 10, 0-2 23; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; correct scores 0-0 8, 0-1 11, 0-2 23.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-10T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-09-07T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-5, result loss.

  10. Market consensus across 14 bookmaker samples assigns Canada a 51.9% win probability, more than double Bosnia's 20.6%. The stability of odds across multiple update points (zero probability movement) strengthens confidence in this pricing. While 51.9% represents only a slim majority and Canada's own draw-heavy recent form (4 draws in last 5 friendlies) introduces uncertainty, the market evidence clearly points to side_a_win as the most probable outcome. Confidence is set at 0.55 to reflect that th

Conclusion note

The 14 captured pre-match odds records from 7 update points consistently price Canada as clear favorites with a 51.9% implied win probability versus Bosnia & Herzegovina's 20.6%. Representative bookmaker lines cluster tightly around 1.80-1.85 for a Canada win, 3.30-3.60 for a draw, and 4.35-4.95 for a Bosnia win. Odds showed zero movement between the 12:14 and 16:19 UTC updates, indicating stable market conviction. Extended markets reinforce a low-scoring expectation (total 0.5 over priced at 1.07-1.08), with 0-0 and 1-0 type correct scores among the shortest prices. Canada's host-nation status at Toronto Stadium is reflected in the pricing, while Bosnia's weaker recent form (1 win in last 10 matches, including heavy Nations League defeats) likely contributes to their underdog pricing.

Recent Form and Draw FrequencyHome winFrom the recent form and draw frequency perspective, Canada's home momentum (unbeaten in 8) and Bosnia's poor away results (3 losses in 6) point toward a Canada win, consistent with the 51.9% consensus implied probability. The main countervailing signal is both teams' high draw rates in friendlies: Canada 44% draws at home and Bosnia 60% draws in their last 5 friendlies. Bosnia's most recent away result was a 1-1 draw with Panama, suggesting they can frustrate opponents but struggle to win on th48%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Form and Draw Frequency

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T15:00:00-04:00. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: side A is the venue-country host nation. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Canada: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.9%, draw 27.5%, side B win 20.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.82 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.35 → side A 1.82 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.35; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.5; bet365 side A 1.8 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.82, draw 3.45, side B 4.35; william_hill: side A 1.8, draw 3.3, side B 4.5; bet365: side A 1.8, draw 3.6, side B 4.5; marathonbet: side A 1.85, draw 3.54, side B 4.95. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; correct scores 0-0 8, 0-1 8.5, 0-2 17; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 8.5, 0-1 10, 0-2 23; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; correct scores 0-0 8, 0-1 11, 0-2 23.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-10T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-09-07T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-5, result loss.

  10. From the recent form and draw frequency perspective, Canada's home momentum (unbeaten in 8) and Bosnia's poor away results (3 losses in 6) point toward a Canada win, consistent with the 51.9% consensus implied probability. The main countervailing signal is both teams' high draw rates in friendlies: Canada 44% draws at home and Bosnia 60% draws in their last 5 friendlies. Bosnia's most recent away result was a 1-1 draw with Panama, suggesting they can frustrate opponents but struggle to win on th

Conclusion note

Canada is unbeaten in their last 8 home friendlies (4 wins, 4 draws, 0 losses since a 0-1 loss to Australia in October 2025), showing solid defensive organization with only 4 goals conceded in 9 home matches. Bosnia & Herzegovina's away record is weak: 1 win, 2 draws, 3 losses in their last 6 away matches, including heavy defeats to Germany (0-7) and Netherlands (2-5). The bookmaker consensus strongly favors Canada at 51.9% implied probability, with Bosnia at just 20.6%. However, both teams show high draw frequency — Canada has drawn 4 of 9 recent home games (0-0, 0-0, 1-1, 2-2) and Bosnia has drawn 3 of their last 5 friendlies — which tempers confidence in a decisive result.

Host Nation Venue FamiliarityHome winCanada's home form shows 3W-5D-1L in their last 9 home friendlies with strong defensive performances, while Bosnia's away form shows 1W-2D-4L with several heavy defeats. Host nation venue familiarity at Toronto Stadium favors Canada. Odds consensus at 51.9% for Canada aligns with this assessment. High draw frequency in Canada's home games limits confidence, but the evidence still supports a narrow side_a_win.52%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Host Nation Venue Familiarity

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T15:00:00-04:00. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: side A is the venue-country host nation. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Canada: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.9%, draw 27.5%, side B win 20.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.82 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.35 → side A 1.82 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.35; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.5; bet365 side A 1.8 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.82, draw 3.45, side B 4.35; william_hill: side A 1.8, draw 3.3, side B 4.5; bet365: side A 1.8, draw 3.6, side B 4.5; marathonbet: side A 1.85, draw 3.54, side B 4.95. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; correct scores 0-0 8, 0-1 8.5, 0-2 17; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 8.5, 0-1 10, 0-2 23; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; correct scores 0-0 8, 0-1 11, 0-2 23.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-10T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-09-07T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-5, result loss.

  10. Canada's home form shows 3W-5D-1L in their last 9 home friendlies with strong defensive performances, while Bosnia's away form shows 1W-2D-4L with several heavy defeats. Host nation venue familiarity at Toronto Stadium favors Canada. Odds consensus at 51.9% for Canada aligns with this assessment. High draw frequency in Canada's home games limits confidence, but the evidence still supports a narrow side_a_win.

Conclusion note

Canada has been highly resilient at home in their recent friendlies leading up to this World Cup match, going unbeaten in 8 of their last 9 home fixtures (3 wins, 5 draws, 1 loss) with multiple clean sheets against opponents like Uzbekistan, Guatemala, Venezuela, Ecuador and Colombia. Playing at Toronto Stadium as the host nation provides venue familiarity and crowd support. Bosnia & Herzegovina's away record is considerably weaker: in their recent away matches, they managed only 1 win (against Malta), 2 draws, and suffered heavy defeats to Germany (0-7) and the Netherlands (2-5). The bookmaker consensus strongly favors Canada at 51.9% implied probability. While Canada's tendency to draw at home (5 of 9) introduces uncertainty and prevents higher confidence, the combination of Canada's home solidity and Bosnia's poor away adaptability points to a narrow Canada victory.

Synthesis

Canada enters this match as the clear favorite, supported by stable market odds that assign them a win probability of over 50%. Their recent home form is highly resilient, remaining unbeaten in their last eight home friendlies with strong defensive organization. Bosnia & Herzegovina struggles on the road, evidenced by heavy away defeats and only one win in their last six away matches. While both teams have shown a high frequency of draws in recent friendlies, which introduces some uncertainty and keeps the expected goal count low, Canada's host-nation advantage at Toronto Stadium and Bosnia's poor away adaptability tilt the balance toward a narrow home victory. The most likely scorelines reflect this low-scoring, tightly contested expectation.

Reasoning summary: All perspectives favor Canada based on strong home form, Bosnia & Herzegovina's weak away record, and stable market odds pricing Canada as clear favorites. High draw rates in recent friendlies for both teams temper confidence and point to a low-scoring affair, but the host advantage and defensive solidity make a narrow Canada win the most probable outcome.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection m_2026_001Match: m_2026_001 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_a_win, verdict correct Investment: bet win on side_a_win, stake 250.0, payout 357.5 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lessorelevance 0.00
  • Post-match reflection m_2026_002Match: m_2026_002 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_a_win, verdict correct Investment: bet loss on draw, stake 100.0, payout 0.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesson forwarelevance 0.00