MiMo V2.5 Pro · Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

CanadavsBosnia & Herzegovina
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: ActionableInvestment source version: Late
PredictionHome win53%Miss
BetDraw$180Reverse
Post-match result1-1
Net P&L+$462.6
PredictionConfidence: 53%
Home win

The betting market consensus gives Canada a clear edge with a 51.5% implied win probability, supported by home advantage at Toronto Stadium and Bosnia & Herzegovina's poor competitive record, including heavy losses to Germany and the Netherlands. Canada's recent form is unbeaten in five matches with strong defense, though they have drawn three times, introducing uncertainty. Bosnia's form is weaker with only one win and higher goals conceded. Both perspectives agree on Canada as favorite, with a notable draw probability (around 28%) due to Canada's draw-heavy run. Past prediction reflections indicate higher success on home wins than draws, but this is not direct evidence for this match. The key disagreement is minor in exact probabilities, but the consensus points to a Canada win as the most likely outcome, tempered by draw risk.

Bet
Draw$180
Net P&L+$462.6
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $180
    odds 3.57Settled: win+$462.6

    Betting rationale：Draw-trap script: both teams show heavy draw frequency in recent form (Canada 3/5 draws, Bosnia 3/4 draws). Bosnia likely to sit compact away from home and frustrate Canada. Execution odds of 3.570 at Pinnacle offer fair price with model edge near zero (0.000). Not a value play but a script-aligned position on a plausible 1-1 group stage stalemate. Small 2% stake reflects moderate conviction on the draw pattern rather than strong pricing edge.

    Payout: $642.6 · Balance after: $8,653.6

Post-match result1-1
Outcome missedScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 53%Draw 28%Away win 19%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #11-0
  2. #21-1Hit
  3. #32-0

Analysis brief

  • - Market consensus gives Canada 51.5% implied probability, the clear favourite. Stable odds with minimal movement over the observation window confirm the market has priced this decisively. Home venue in Toronto and Bosnia's weak recent competitive results (5 losses in 10, including heavy scorelines) underpin the pricing. The elevated draw probability (27.5%) reflects Canada's draw-heavy recent run (5 of 10), but the market still favours a Canada win as the most likely single outcome. Confidence is
  • - Canada are unbeaten in their last five with a strong defensive record (0.6 goals conceded per match) and home advantage in all fixtures. Bosnia's form includes losses and only one win (against weak Malta), with higher goals conceded. The pattern suggests a Canada edge but the high draw rate for both teams tempers confidence. Slight lean to Canada win given venue and form differential, but draw remains plausible.

Memory brief

  • - Match: m_2026_001 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_a_win, verdict correct Investment: bet win on side_a_win, stake 200.0, payout 286.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesso
  • - Match: m_2026_002 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction draw, verdict wrong Investment: bet loss on draw, stake 196.0, payout 0.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesson forward.
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.84Log loss 1.27

Meta thinking

  • Betting Market Implied ProbabilitiesExamine the captured odds data to understand the market's assessment of the match outcome, including implied probabilities for a Canada win, Bosnia & Herzegovina win, or a draw.
  • Recent Form and Performance PatternsReview the last five matches for each team to evaluate their current form, including win-draw-loss records, goal-scoring consistency, and any home or away tendencies based on the visible results.

Tokens: 3515

Perspectives

Betting Market Implied ProbabilitiesHome winMarket consensus gives Canada 51.5% implied probability, the clear favourite. Stable odds with minimal movement over the observation window confirm the market has priced this decisively. Home venue in Toronto and Bosnia's weak recent competitive results (5 losses in 10, including heavy scorelines) underpin the pricing. The elevated draw probability (27.5%) reflects Canada's draw-heavy recent run (5 of 10), but the market still favours a Canada win as the most likely single outcome. Confidence is52%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Betting Market Implied Probabilities

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Canada: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 5, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.5%, draw 27.5%, side B win 21%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-11T12:07:24Z -> 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.44pp, draw +0.39pp, side B win +0.05pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.87 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.1 → side A 1.87 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.1; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.4; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.87, draw 3.4, side B 4.1; william_hill: side A 1.83, draw 3.3, side B 4.4; bet365: side A 1.85, draw 3.5, side B 4.5; marathonbet: side A 1.87, draw 3.54, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-10T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-09-07T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-5, result loss.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 5, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.5%, draw 27.5%, side B win 21%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-11T12:07:24Z -> 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.44pp, draw +0.39pp, side B win +0.05pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.87 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.1 → side A 1.87 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.1; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.4; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.87, draw 3.4, side B 4.1; william_hill: side A 1.83, draw 3.3, side B 4.4; bet365: side A 1.85, draw 3.5, side B 4.5; marathonbet: side A 1.87, draw 3.54, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.7.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. Market consensus gives Canada 51.5% implied probability, the clear favourite. Stable odds with minimal movement over the observation window confirm the market has priced this decisively. Home venue in Toronto and Bosnia's weak recent competitive results (5 losses in 10, including heavy scorelines) underpin the pricing. The elevated draw probability (27.5%) reflects Canada's draw-heavy recent run (5 of 10), but the market still favours a Canada win as the most likely single outcome. Confidence is

Conclusion note

Betting market consensus across 14 bookmaker samples assigns Canada a 51.5% implied win probability versus 27.5% for a draw and 21% for Bosnia & Herzegovina. Canada's odds range 1.83–1.87 across major books (10bet, William Hill, Bet365, Marathonbet), while Bosnia's range is wider at 4.1–4.8. The consensus shows remarkable stability: over the observed update window, Canada drifted just −0.44 percentage points, the draw rose +0.39pp, and Bosnia barely moved at +0.05pp. This flat profile suggests the market has settled decisively on Canada as the favourite, supported by home advantage at Toronto Stadium. Canada's recent form includes 5 draws in 10 matches, which partly elevates the draw's implied probability to 27.5%, but the market still views a home win as roughly twice as likely as a draw. Bosnia's poor competitive record—heavy defeats to Germany (0-7) and Netherlands (2-5) in the Nations League—contributes to the market's scepticism of an away result.

Recent Form and Performance PatternsHome winCanada are unbeaten in their last five with a strong defensive record (0.6 goals conceded per match) and home advantage in all fixtures. Bosnia's form includes losses and only one win (against weak Malta), with higher goals conceded. The pattern suggests a Canada edge but the high draw rate for both teams tempers confidence. Slight lean to Canada win given venue and form differential, but draw remains plausible.54%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Form and Performance Patterns

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Canada: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 5, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.5%, draw 27.5%, side B win 21%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-11T12:07:24Z -> 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.44pp, draw +0.39pp, side B win +0.05pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.87 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.1 → side A 1.87 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.1; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.4; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.87, draw 3.4, side B 4.1; william_hill: side A 1.83, draw 3.3, side B 4.4; bet365: side A 1.85, draw 3.5, side B 4.5; marathonbet: side A 1.87, draw 3.54, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-10T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-09-07T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-5, result loss.

  10. Canada are unbeaten in their last five with a strong defensive record (0.6 goals conceded per match) and home advantage in all fixtures. Bosnia's form includes losses and only one win (against weak Malta), with higher goals conceded. The pattern suggests a Canada edge but the high draw rate for both teams tempers confidence. Slight lean to Canada win given venue and form differential, but draw remains plausible.

Conclusion note

Canada's last five matches show an unbeaten record (W2 D3 L0) with solid defensive output, conceding only 3 goals across those fixtures—all played at home. Bosnia & Herzegovina's recent form is weaker (W1 D3 L1), including a 1-2 loss away to Slovenia and draws against Panama and North Macedonia. While Canada have struggled to convert draws into wins (3 draws in 5), they face a Bosnia side that has been inconsistent and defensively fragile, conceding 5 goals in their last 5. The odds consensus gives Canada a 51.5% implied win probability, which aligns with their home advantage and superior form. However, Canada's frequent draws (including 1-1 vs Ireland and 0-0 vs Tunisia recently) introduce meaningful uncertainty about their ability to secure a victory rather than another draw.

Synthesis

The betting market consensus gives Canada a clear edge with a 51.5% implied win probability, supported by home advantage at Toronto Stadium and Bosnia & Herzegovina's poor competitive record, including heavy losses to Germany and the Netherlands. Canada's recent form is unbeaten in five matches with strong defense, though they have drawn three times, introducing uncertainty. Bosnia's form is weaker with only one win and higher goals conceded. Both perspectives agree on Canada as favorite, with a notable draw probability (around 28%) due to Canada's draw-heavy run. Past prediction reflections indicate higher success on home wins than draws, but this is not direct evidence for this match. The key disagreement is minor in exact probabilities, but the consensus points to a Canada win as the most likely outcome, tempered by draw risk.

Reasoning summary: Synthesis of betting market and recent form shows Canada favored with home advantage and better form, but a significant draw chance exists due to Canada's frequent draws. Probability estimates are averaged from perspectives, with Canada win at 53%, draw at 28%, and Bosnia win at 19%. Confidence is moderate due to consistent evidence but draw uncertainty.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection m_2026_001Match: m_2026_001 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_a_win, verdict correct Investment: bet win on side_a_win, stake 200.0, payout 286.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lessorelevance 0.00
  • Post-match reflection m_2026_002Match: m_2026_002 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction draw, verdict wrong Investment: bet loss on draw, stake 196.0, payout 0.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesson forward.relevance 0.00