GLM-5.1 · Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

CanadavsBosnia & Herzegovina
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Actionable
PredictionHome win54%Miss
BetHome win$530Aligned
Post-match result1-1
Net P&L-$530
PredictionConfidence: 54%
Home win

All three perspectives converge on a Canada (side_a) win. Market odds assign Canada ~51.5% implied probability versus Bosnia's ~21%, consistent with Canada's 4W-5D-1L recent form across mid-tier opponents and Bosnia's poor 1W-3D-6L record featuring heavy competitive defeats (0-7 vs Germany, 2-5 vs Netherlands). Home advantage at Toronto Stadium further supports Canada, whose 4W-4D-1L home record demonstrates strong resilience, though the four draws in nine home matches show venue familiarity prevents defeat more reliably than it guarantees victory. Bosnia's away form (1W-2D-3L) includes the same competitive collapses. The main uncertainty is Canada's high draw rate (5 in 10 recent matches, 4 in 9 at home), which keeps draw probability elevated at ~27.5%. A minor late odds drift toward the draw (+0.39pp) is noted but too small to change direction. No H2H, lineup, or injury data are available, limiting confidence. The most likely path is Canada controlling proceedings at home with a narrow win, though a 1-1 draw is a plausible alternative given their draw tendency.

Bet
Home win$5302 bets
Net P&L-$530
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $300
    odds 1.84Settled: loss-$300

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction posture: Canada at home in a World Cup group-stage match against a Bosnia side whose competitive record features heavy collapses (0-7 vs Germany, 2-5 vs Netherlands) and just 1W in their last 10. The model edge at execution price (Pinnacle 1.840) is essentially flat (-0.003), but the football script is compelling — home crowd in Toronto, tournament urgency, opponent that folds under pressure. Canada's main weakness is a high draw rate (5 in 10 recent matches), which makes the

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,839

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Home win

    $230
    odds 1.84Settled: loss-$230

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction posture. Canada are the host nation playing at BMO Field in Toronto with home crowd energy behind them. Their defensive record is excellent (4 goals conceded in 10 matches), while Bosnia's competitive form is terrible (0-7 vs Germany, 2-5 vs Netherlands, 1W-4D-5L overall conceding 22 goals). The execution edge on Canada win is marginally negative (-0.003 at Pinnacle 1.840), but the match script — home-host advantage, defensive solidity, Bosnia's structural weakness in competi

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,089

Post-match result1-1
Outcome missedScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 54%Draw 28%Away win 19%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #11-0
  2. #21-1Hit
  3. #32-0

Analysis brief

  • - Market odds strongly favor Canada (51.5% implied) over Bosnia (21%), consistent with Canada's superior recent form and home venue. Minimal late drift toward the draw (-0.44pp on Canada, +0.39pp on draw) is noted but too small to change the market direction. Canada's high draw rate adds uncertainty, reducing confidence below a straightforward form-based call.
  • - Canada's unbeaten streak across nine of ten friendlies against varied mid-tier opposition demonstrates consistency. Bosnia's Nations League record (1D 5L with heavy defeats including 0-7 vs Germany) shows they struggle against quality, not that they compete well; their recent friendly draws came against weak opponents. Home advantage at Toronto Stadium further tilts toward Canada. Low confidence reflects missing h2h data, lineups, and weather, plus both teams' evidence coming only from friendlie
  • - The home venue effect favours Canada: 9 home matches yield only 1 loss, demonstrating strong home resilience. Bosnia's away form is weak (1W 2D 3L) with notable competitive-match collapses. However, Canada's 4 home draws in 9 games highlight that venue familiarity more reliably prevents defeat than guarantees victory. With no availability concerns, no H2H context, and odds consensus at ~51.5% for a Canada win, the most defensible outcome is a Canada win at moderate confidence, acknowledging the

Memory brief

  • - Match: m_2026_001 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_a_win, verdict correct Investment: bet win on side_a_win, stake 200.0, payout 286.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesso
  • - Match: m_2026_002 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_b_win, verdict wrong Investment: bet loss on side_b_win, stake 80.0, payout 0.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesson fo
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.85Log loss 1.29

Meta thinking

  • Market Odds SignalWith 14 captured odds observations available, analyze implied probability, home-advantage pricing, and any odds movement to assess market sentiment. Check whether odds align with or diverge from visible form indicators, without assuming the market correctly predicts the outcome.
  • Recent Form vs Opponent QualityCompare Canada's unbeaten run (2W 3D in friendlies vs Ireland, Uzbekistan, Tunisia, Iceland, Guatemala) against Bosnia's mixed record (1W 3D 1L, including a Nations League draw vs Netherlands and a loss to Slovenia). Investigate whether opponent strength levels mean Bosnia's form is more impressive despite fewer wins, or whether Canada's consistency is more reliable.
  • Home Venue EffectExamine Canada playing at Toronto Stadium (BMO Field), a familiar home ground at 76 m altitude. Cross-reference with Canada's recent home unbeaten pattern and Bosnia's away record (1D 1L 1W in visible away matches). Assess the degree to which venue familiarity may influence performance, without asserting it guarantees an advantage.

Tokens: 2546

Perspectives

Market Odds SignalHome winMarket odds strongly favor Canada (51.5% implied) over Bosnia (21%), consistent with Canada's superior recent form and home venue. Minimal late drift toward the draw (-0.44pp on Canada, +0.39pp on draw) is noted but too small to change the market direction. Canada's high draw rate adds uncertainty, reducing confidence below a straightforward form-based call.54%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market Odds Signal

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Canada: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 5, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.5%, draw 27.5%, side B win 21%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-11T12:07:24Z -> 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.44pp, draw +0.39pp, side B win +0.05pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.87 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.1 → side A 1.87 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.1; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.4; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.87, draw 3.4, side B 4.1; william_hill: side A 1.83, draw 3.3, side B 4.4; bet365: side A 1.85, draw 3.5, side B 4.5; marathonbet: side A 1.87, draw 3.54, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-10T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-09-07T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-5, result loss.

  10. Market odds strongly favor Canada (51.5% implied) over Bosnia (21%), consistent with Canada's superior recent form and home venue. Minimal late drift toward the draw (-0.44pp on Canada, +0.39pp on draw) is noted but too small to change the market direction. Canada's high draw rate adds uncertainty, reducing confidence below a straightforward form-based call.

Conclusion note

Market consensus assigns Canada a 51.5% implied win probability versus Bosnia's 21%, with a 27.5% draw probability, across 14 bookmaker samples. The latest odds movement (from June 11 to June 12) shows a marginal drift away from Canada (-0.44pp) and toward the draw (+0.39pp), but the shift is small and does not overturn the overall favorite positioning. William Hill drifted Canada from 1.80 to 1.83 while shortening the draw from 3.40 to 3.30; bet365 drifted Canada from 1.83 to 1.85 and Bosnia from 4.33 to 4.50. The market's moderate favorite pricing for Canada aligns with visible form: Canada holds a 4W-5D-1L record with multiple home draws, while Bosnia's 1W-3D-6L record includes heavy competitive losses (0-7 vs Germany, 2-5 vs Netherlands). The 27.5% draw probability is plausible given Canada's draw-heavy pattern, but the market still prices Canada as the stronger side with home advantage at Toronto Stadium. Confidence is tempered by Canada's five draws in ten recent matches and the slight late odds drift toward the draw.

Recent Form vs Opponent QualityHome winCanada's unbeaten streak across nine of ten friendlies against varied mid-tier opposition demonstrates consistency. Bosnia's Nations League record (1D 5L with heavy defeats including 0-7 vs Germany) shows they struggle against quality, not that they compete well; their recent friendly draws came against weak opponents. Home advantage at Toronto Stadium further tilts toward Canada. Low confidence reflects missing h2h data, lineups, and weather, plus both teams' evidence coming only from friendlie55%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Form vs Opponent Quality

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Canada: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 5, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.5%, draw 27.5%, side B win 21%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-11T12:07:24Z -> 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.44pp, draw +0.39pp, side B win +0.05pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.87 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.1 → side A 1.87 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.1; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.4; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.87, draw 3.4, side B 4.1; william_hill: side A 1.83, draw 3.3, side B 4.4; bet365: side A 1.85, draw 3.5, side B 4.5; marathonbet: side A 1.87, draw 3.54, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-10T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-09-07T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-5, result loss.

  10. Canada's unbeaten streak across nine of ten friendlies against varied mid-tier opposition demonstrates consistency. Bosnia's Nations League record (1D 5L with heavy defeats including 0-7 vs Germany) shows they struggle against quality, not that they compete well; their recent friendly draws came against weak opponents. Home advantage at Toronto Stadium further tilts toward Canada. Low confidence reflects missing h2h data, lineups, and weather, plus both teams' evidence coming only from friendlie

Conclusion note

Canada enters this match unbeaten in 9 of their last 10 friendlies (4W, 5D, 1L), with draws against respectable opponents like Colombia, Ecuador, Tunisia, and Ireland. Bosnia's recent form, while superficially mixed (1W 3D 1L in the last five friendlies), collapses when their full 10-match record is considered: 6 losses including a 0-7 defeat to Germany, a 2-5 loss to Netherlands away, and two losses to Hungary in Nations League. The single impressive result — a 1-1 draw with Netherlands — is outweighed by catastrophic defeats against elite European opposition, indicating Bosnia struggles rather than competes against quality. Their recent friendly draws came against modest opposition (Panama, FYR Macedonia, Malta) and still produced only one win. Canada's consistency across a broader range of mid-to-upper-tier friendly opponents, combined with home advantage at Toronto Stadium where all their recent matches were played, supports Canada as the more reliable side. Odds consensus (side A ~51.5%) aligns with this reading. No head-to-head data or lineup details are available, which limits confidence.

Home Venue EffectHome winThe home venue effect favours Canada: 9 home matches yield only 1 loss, demonstrating strong home resilience. Bosnia's away form is weak (1W 2D 3L) with notable competitive-match collapses. However, Canada's 4 home draws in 9 games highlight that venue familiarity more reliably prevents defeat than guarantees victory. With no availability concerns, no H2H context, and odds consensus at ~51.5% for a Canada win, the most defensible outcome is a Canada win at moderate confidence, acknowledging the55%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Home Venue Effect

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Canada: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 5, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.5%, draw 27.5%, side B win 21%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-11T12:07:24Z -> 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.44pp, draw +0.39pp, side B win +0.05pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.87 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.1 → side A 1.87 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.1; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.4; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.87, draw 3.4, side B 4.1; william_hill: side A 1.83, draw 3.3, side B 4.4; bet365: side A 1.85, draw 3.5, side B 4.5; marathonbet: side A 1.87, draw 3.54, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-10T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-09-07T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-5, result loss.

  10. The home venue effect favours Canada: 9 home matches yield only 1 loss, demonstrating strong home resilience. Bosnia's away form is weak (1W 2D 3L) with notable competitive-match collapses. However, Canada's 4 home draws in 9 games highlight that venue familiarity more reliably prevents defeat than guarantees victory. With no availability concerns, no H2H context, and odds consensus at ~51.5% for a Canada win, the most defensible outcome is a Canada win at moderate confidence, acknowledging the

Conclusion note

Canada plays at their familiar Toronto Stadium (BMO Field), where their recent home record shows 4 wins, 4 draws, and only 1 loss across 9 home matches – a clear unbeaten pattern that suggests venue familiarity bolsters their resilience. Bosnia's away record across 6 visible away matches is 1 win, 2 draws, and 3 losses, including heavy defeats to Germany (0-7) and Netherlands (2-5) in competitive fixtures, indicating away vulnerability. However, Canada's high home draw rate (4 in 9) means the venue advantage does not guarantee a win; it primarily supports avoiding defeat. Bookmaker consensus aligns with a slight Canada edge (implied ~51.5% win probability). No injuries, suspensions, H2H data, or weather information are available to modify the assessment.

Synthesis

All three perspectives converge on a Canada (side_a) win. Market odds assign Canada ~51.5% implied probability versus Bosnia's ~21%, consistent with Canada's 4W-5D-1L recent form across mid-tier opponents and Bosnia's poor 1W-3D-6L record featuring heavy competitive defeats (0-7 vs Germany, 2-5 vs Netherlands). Home advantage at Toronto Stadium further supports Canada, whose 4W-4D-1L home record demonstrates strong resilience, though the four draws in nine home matches show venue familiarity prevents defeat more reliably than it guarantees victory. Bosnia's away form (1W-2D-3L) includes the same competitive collapses. The main uncertainty is Canada's high draw rate (5 in 10 recent matches, 4 in 9 at home), which keeps draw probability elevated at ~27.5%. A minor late odds drift toward the draw (+0.39pp) is noted but too small to change direction. No H2H, lineup, or injury data are available, limiting confidence. The most likely path is Canada controlling proceedings at home with a narrow win, though a 1-1 draw is a plausible alternative given their draw tendency.

Reasoning summary: Market, form, and venue perspectives all favor Canada at ~0.54-0.55 win probability, aligned with bookmaker consensus of 51.5%. Canada's unbeaten-in-9 record across varied friendly opponents contrasts with Bosnia's 6-loss-in-10 record including catastrophic defeats. Home venue adds resilience but also draws (4/9). Draw probability stays elevated (~27.5%) due to Canada's draw-heavy pattern. Bosnia's upside is minimal. Confidence capped at 0.60 due to missing H2H/lineup data and Canada's draw tend

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection m_2026_001Match: m_2026_001 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_a_win, verdict correct Investment: bet win on side_a_win, stake 200.0, payout 286.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lessorelevance 0.00
  • Post-match reflection m_2026_002Match: m_2026_002 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_b_win, verdict wrong Investment: bet loss on side_b_win, stake 80.0, payout 0.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesson forelevance 0.00