GLM-5.1 · Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

CanadavsBosnia & Herzegovina
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Actionable
PredictionHome win54%Miss
BetHome win$530Aligned
Post-match result1-1
Net P&L-$530
PredictionConfidence: 54%
Home win

All three perspectives converge on a Canada win. Canada are unbeaten in 9 of their last 10 (4W-5D-1L) with only 4 goals conceded, while Bosnia & Herzegovina have 1 win in 10 (1W-4D-5L) and conceded 22 goals, including 0-7 vs Germany and 2-5 vs Netherlands in competitive UEFA Nations League play. Canada benefit from home-host status at Toronto Stadium (BMO Field), where their recent home record is 4W-4D-1L. Bookmakers unanimously and stably price Canada at ~1.81 implied (~52% win probability), draw ~3.40 (~27.5%), Bosnia ~4.50 (~20.6%), with no odds movement across 14 samples. The main uncertainty is Canada's high draw rate: 5 draws in 10 overall and ~44% draws at home, combined with a modest scoring rate of 0.9 goals per match. Bosnia's recent friendly draws vs Panama and FYR Macedonia add draw credibility. No H2H or lineup data is available to refine further. These factors justify a moderate-confidence side_a_win pick, with the draw retained as a meaningful secondary outcome. The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, reflecting Canada's defensive solidity and limited goal production; 1-1 and 2-0 follow as the next likely scorelines.

Bet
Home win$5302 bets
Net P&L-$530
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $300
    odds 1.84Settled: loss-$300

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction posture: Canada at home in a World Cup group-stage match against a Bosnia side whose competitive record features heavy collapses (0-7 vs Germany, 2-5 vs Netherlands) and just 1W in their last 10. The model edge at execution price (Pinnacle 1.840) is essentially flat (-0.003), but the football script is compelling — home crowd in Toronto, tournament urgency, opponent that folds under pressure. Canada's main weakness is a high draw rate (5 in 10 recent matches), which makes the

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,839

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Home win

    $230
    odds 1.84Settled: loss-$230

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction posture. Canada are the host nation playing at BMO Field in Toronto with home crowd energy behind them. Their defensive record is excellent (4 goals conceded in 10 matches), while Bosnia's competitive form is terrible (0-7 vs Germany, 2-5 vs Netherlands, 1W-4D-5L overall conceding 22 goals). The execution edge on Canada win is marginally negative (-0.003 at Pinnacle 1.840), but the match script — home-host advantage, defensive solidity, Bosnia's structural weakness in competi

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,089

Post-match result1-1
Outcome missedScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 54%Draw 28%Away win 18%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #11-0
  2. #21-1Hit
  3. #32-0

Analysis brief

  • - Canada's unbeaten-in-9 record and defensive solidity (4 conceded in 10) contrast sharply with Bosnia's 5 losses and 22 goals conceded in 10, including heavy Nations League defeats. Home-host advantage further supports Canada. But Canada's modest scoring rate and draw-heavy pattern, combined with Bosnia's recent friendly draws against Panama and FYR Macedonia, introduce meaningful draw risk, limiting confidence.
  • - Bookmakers unanimously and stably favor Canada at ~52% implied win probability with no odds movement across 7 update points covering 14 samples. The odds consensus aligns with Canada's superior recent form and home advantage, though Canada's draw-heavy record and the sub-55% implied probability justify moderate rather than high confidence in a side A win.
  • - Canada's venue advantage as host nation at BMO Field is supported by an unbeaten recent home run (4W-4D-1L in 9 home friendlies), but the high draw frequency at home (~44%) limits how strongly the venue effect translates into a win expectation. Bosnia's poor overall record (1W-4D-5L, with heavy competitive losses) strengthens the case for a Canada win despite missing H2H and lineup data. Bookmaker consensus around 52% implied probability for a Canada win aligns with a modest home edge. The draws

Memory brief

  • - Match: m_2026_002 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_b_win, verdict wrong Investment: bet loss on side_b_win, stake 80.0, payout 0.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesson fo
  • - Match: m_2026_001 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_a_win, verdict correct Investment: bet win on side_a_win, stake 200.0, payout 286.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesso
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.84Log loss 1.27

Meta thinking

  • Recent Form ComparisonExamine the visible recent match records for both teams: Canada has 2 wins and 3 draws across five friendlies in 2026, while Bosnia & Herzegovina has 1 win, 3 draws, and 1 loss spanning friendlies and UEFA Nations League. Compare result consistency, goal production, and competition level to assess current form reliability.
  • Market Odds SignalAnalyze the 14 observed odds entries captured before kickoff to understand the implied probability distribution for outcome, goals, and potential scorelines. Check for consensus or divergence among oddsmakers regarding expected match dynamics, and note whether the odds align with or diverge from recent form indicators.
  • Host Nation Venue EffectCanada is listed as the venue-country host nation playing at Toronto Stadium (BMO Field), a familiar home venue with 44,315 capacity. Investigate whether captured evidence — form at home, crowd support assumptions, or historical host-nation group-stage performance — supports or contradicts any measurable venue advantage, while acknowledging no direct h2h or lineup data is available.

Tokens: 2074

Perspectives

Recent Form ComparisonHome winCanada's unbeaten-in-9 record and defensive solidity (4 conceded in 10) contrast sharply with Bosnia's 5 losses and 22 goals conceded in 10, including heavy Nations League defeats. Home-host advantage further supports Canada. But Canada's modest scoring rate and draw-heavy pattern, combined with Bosnia's recent friendly draws against Panama and FYR Macedonia, introduce meaningful draw risk, limiting confidence.55%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Form Comparison

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T15:00:00-04:00. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: side A is the venue-country host nation. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Canada: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.9%, draw 27.5%, side B win 20.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.82 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.35 → side A 1.82 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.35; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.5; bet365 side A 1.8 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.82, draw 3.45, side B 4.35; william_hill: side A 1.8, draw 3.3, side B 4.5; bet365: side A 1.8, draw 3.6, side B 4.5; marathonbet: side A 1.85, draw 3.54, side B 4.95. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; correct scores 0-0 8, 0-1 8.5, 0-2 17; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 8.5, 0-1 10, 0-2 23; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; correct scores 0-0 8, 0-1 11, 0-2 23.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-10T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-09-07T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-5, result loss.

  10. Canada's unbeaten-in-9 record and defensive solidity (4 conceded in 10) contrast sharply with Bosnia's 5 losses and 22 goals conceded in 10, including heavy Nations League defeats. Home-host advantage further supports Canada. But Canada's modest scoring rate and draw-heavy pattern, combined with Bosnia's recent friendly draws against Panama and FYR Macedonia, introduce meaningful draw risk, limiting confidence.

Conclusion note

Canada's recent form is notably more reliable: 4 wins, 5 draws, and only 1 loss in 10 friendlies, with just 4 goals conceded across those matches. Bosnia & Herzegovina have 1 win, 4 draws, and 5 losses in their last 10, including heavy competitive defeats (0-7 vs Germany, 2-5 vs Netherlands) in UEFA Nations League. While Bosnia faced higher-calibre opponents in competitive fixtures, their concession rate (22 goals in 10) signals defensive vulnerability. Canada also benefit from home-host status at Toronto Stadium. However, Canada's low goal production (9 in 10, averaging 0.9 per match) and high draw frequency (50%) mean a draw remains plausible, tempering confidence in an outright win.

Market Odds SignalHome winBookmakers unanimously and stably favor Canada at ~52% implied win probability with no odds movement across 7 update points covering 14 samples. The odds consensus aligns with Canada's superior recent form and home advantage, though Canada's draw-heavy record and the sub-55% implied probability justify moderate rather than high confidence in a side A win.55%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market Odds Signal

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T15:00:00-04:00. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: side A is the venue-country host nation. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Canada: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.9%, draw 27.5%, side B win 20.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.82 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.35 → side A 1.82 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.35; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.5; bet365 side A 1.8 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.82, draw 3.45, side B 4.35; william_hill: side A 1.8, draw 3.3, side B 4.5; bet365: side A 1.8, draw 3.6, side B 4.5; marathonbet: side A 1.85, draw 3.54, side B 4.95. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; correct scores 0-0 8, 0-1 8.5, 0-2 17; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 8.5, 0-1 10, 0-2 23; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; correct scores 0-0 8, 0-1 11, 0-2 23.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-10T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-09-07T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-5, result loss.

  10. Bookmakers unanimously and stably favor Canada at ~52% implied win probability with no odds movement across 7 update points covering 14 samples. The odds consensus aligns with Canada's superior recent form and home advantage, though Canada's draw-heavy record and the sub-55% implied probability justify moderate rather than high confidence in a side A win.

Conclusion note

The 14 observed bookmaker odds entries show a clear, stable consensus favoring Canada at approximately 51.9% implied probability for a win, with the draw at 27.5% and Bosnia & Herzegovina at 20.6%. All three major bookmakers (10bet, william_hill, bet365) align closely around Canada 1.80-1.82, draw 3.30-3.60, and Bosnia 4.35-4.50, with marathonbet offering the widest Bosnia price at 4.95. Odds showed no movement between the two captured update times, indicating a settled market with no divergence. This odds consensus aligns with recent form: Canada are unbeaten in 9 of 10 matches (4W, 5D, 1L) and play as the venue-country host nation, while Bosnia & Herzegovina have only 1 win in their last 10 (1W, 4D, 5L) including heavy competitive defeats. However, Canada's high draw rate (5 in 10) and the modest 51.9% win probability keep confidence moderate.

Host Nation Venue EffectHome winCanada's venue advantage as host nation at BMO Field is supported by an unbeaten recent home run (4W-4D-1L in 9 home friendlies), but the high draw frequency at home (~44%) limits how strongly the venue effect translates into a win expectation. Bosnia's poor overall record (1W-4D-5L, with heavy competitive losses) strengthens the case for a Canada win despite missing H2H and lineup data. Bookmaker consensus around 52% implied probability for a Canada win aligns with a modest home edge. The draws55%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Host Nation Venue Effect

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T15:00:00-04:00. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: side A is the venue-country host nation. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Canada: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 7, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.9%, draw 27.5%, side B win 20.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-12T12:14:28Z -> 2026-06-12T16:19:28Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.82 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.35 → side A 1.82 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.35; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.5; bet365 side A 1.8 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.8 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.82, draw 3.45, side B 4.35; william_hill: side A 1.8, draw 3.3, side B 4.5; bet365: side A 1.8, draw 3.6, side B 4.5; marathonbet: side A 1.85, draw 3.54, side B 4.95. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; correct scores 0-0 8, 0-1 8.5, 0-2 17; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 8.5, 0-1 10, 0-2 23; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; correct scores 0-0 8, 0-1 11, 0-2 23.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-10T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-09-07T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-5, result loss.

  10. Canada's venue advantage as host nation at BMO Field is supported by an unbeaten recent home run (4W-4D-1L in 9 home friendlies), but the high draw frequency at home (~44%) limits how strongly the venue effect translates into a win expectation. Bosnia's poor overall record (1W-4D-5L, with heavy competitive losses) strengthens the case for a Canada win despite missing H2H and lineup data. Bookmaker consensus around 52% implied probability for a Canada win aligns with a modest home edge. The draws

Conclusion note

Canada is the venue-country host nation playing at Toronto Stadium (BMO Field), a familiar ground with 44,315 capacity. In 9 recent home matches Canada went 4W-4D-1L (all friendlies), showing a solid but draws-heavy home record rather than a dominant one. Bosnia & Herzegovina's last 10 matches across friendlies and competitive fixtures yield only 1W-4D-5L, including heavy Nations League losses to Germany (0-7) and Netherlands (2-5). The bookmaker consensus implies ~52% for a Canada win, ~27.5% draw, ~20.6% Bosnia win. Canada's home venue advantage is measurable but moderate — they draw nearly half their home games, and no H2H or lineup data is available to refine the assessment. Against a weak-form Bosnia side, Canada's home edge tilts the 1X2 toward a home win, though the elevated draw risk from Canada's draws-heavy home pattern keeps confidence restrained.

Synthesis

All three perspectives converge on a Canada win. Canada are unbeaten in 9 of their last 10 (4W-5D-1L) with only 4 goals conceded, while Bosnia & Herzegovina have 1 win in 10 (1W-4D-5L) and conceded 22 goals, including 0-7 vs Germany and 2-5 vs Netherlands in competitive UEFA Nations League play. Canada benefit from home-host status at Toronto Stadium (BMO Field), where their recent home record is 4W-4D-1L. Bookmakers unanimously and stably price Canada at ~1.81 implied (~52% win probability), draw ~3.40 (~27.5%), Bosnia ~4.50 (~20.6%), with no odds movement across 14 samples. The main uncertainty is Canada's high draw rate: 5 draws in 10 overall and ~44% draws at home, combined with a modest scoring rate of 0.9 goals per match. Bosnia's recent friendly draws vs Panama and FYR Macedonia add draw credibility. No H2H or lineup data is available to refine further. These factors justify a moderate-confidence side_a_win pick, with the draw retained as a meaningful secondary outcome. The most probable exact scoreline is 1-0, reflecting Canada's defensive solidity and limited goal production; 1-1 and 2-0 follow as the next likely scorelines.

Reasoning summary: Consistent cross-perspective agreement on Canada win driven by superior form (unbeaten 9/10, 4 conceded), Bosnia's poor record (1W in 10, 22 conceded with heavy competitive losses), and stable home-venue edge at BMO Field. Bookmaker consensus at ~52% win aligns with form assessment. Confidence capped at moderate because Canada draw nearly half their matches and score only 0.9 per game; Bosnia's friendly draws also elevate draw risk. No H2H or lineup data limits refinement.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection m_2026_002Match: m_2026_002 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_b_win, verdict wrong Investment: bet loss on side_b_win, stake 80.0, payout 0.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesson forelevance 0.17
  • Post-match reflection m_2026_001Match: m_2026_001 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_a_win, verdict correct Investment: bet win on side_a_win, stake 200.0, payout 286.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lessorelevance 0.00