DeepSeek V4 Pro · Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina

CanadavsBosnia & Herzegovina
DeepSeek
DeepSeek V4 ProDeepseek

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Actionable
PredictionHome win47%Miss
BetBet portfolio$550Bet portfolio
Post-match result1-1
Net P&L+$521
PredictionConfidence: 47%
Home win

Canada enter this match with an unbeaten run of five games (2W-3D), boasting a strong defensive record that includes only three goals conceded in those matches and four in the last ten. Playing at home in Toronto, they benefit from fan support and a higher FIFA ranking (30 vs 65). Bookmaker odds across 14 operators consistently price a Canada win at around 51.5% implied probability, with minimal market movement. Bosnia, ranked 65th, have managed one win in their last five (1W-3D-1L) and have a poor away record, yet they have shown the ability to draw, including a credible result against the Netherlands. The contrarian view emphasizes that Canada have drawn half of their last ten matches and score only 0.9 goals per game; Bosnia have drawn four of their last ten. This suggests the draw is undervalued relative to market pricing. After reconciling these signals, Canada's overall package—home advantage, defensive solidity, and market confidence—makes them the most likely winner, but the high draw frequency and Canada's low scoring output raise the chance of a stalemate, tempering confidence. A tight, low-scoring match is expected, with 1-0 for Canada the most probable exact result, followed by 0-0 and 1-1.

Bet
Bet portfolio$5502 bets
Net P&L+$521
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $300
    odds 3.57Settled: win+$771

    Betting rationale：Football posture: cold value with a draw-trap instinct. Match script: Canada's World Cup opener on home soil in Toronto brings emotion and pressure, but they are serial draw specialists — half of their last ten and three of their last five have ended level, and they score just 0.9 goals per game. Bosnia, though lower-ranked, are awkward, resilient travellers who held the Netherlands 1-1 and have drawn four of their last ten. A tight, low-block away performance looks likely, and Canada's blunt at

    Payout: $1,071 · Balance after: $9,750

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Home win

    $250
    odds 1.84Settled: loss-$250

    Betting rationale：Posture: favorite conviction. Match script: Canada kick off their home World Cup at BMO Field with a compact 4-4-2, an unbeaten run, and only 0.6 goals conceded per game recently. Bosnia have one win in ten and struggle away. The model gives Canada a 54% win probability, with the most likely scorelines 1-0 and 2-0. At 1.84 the price is fair and playable. A low-scoring home win fits the evidence. Stake: $250 (~2.6% of bankroll), a measured bet that acknowledges the draw risk but backs the stronge

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,550

Post-match result1-1
Outcome missedScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 47%Draw 35%Away win 18%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 0
  1. #11-0
  2. #20-0
  3. #31-1Hit

Analysis brief

  • - Recent form evaluation strongly favors Canada: unbeaten in last 5 with only 3 conceded across those matches, while Bosnia has 1 win in 5 and a poor overall last-10 record defensively. Home venue, FIFA ranking gap (30 vs 65), and odds consensus all point toward a Canada win. Canada's draw frequency and low goal output moderate confidence.
  • - Consensus implied probabilities across 14 bookmakers give Canada ~51.5%, draw ~27.5%, Bosnia ~21%. No dispersion; odds stable. Canada higher ranked (30 vs 65), playing at home in Toronto, with solid recent home results. Bosnia away form poor. Market signals align with fundamental evidence, making side_a_win the most defensible pick at moderate confidence.
  • - Canada win rate (40%) trails market-implied probability (51.5%); both teams draw frequently — Canada 5/10, Bosnia 4/10 — yet draw implied at only 27.5%. Canada's low goals output (0.9 per match) and Bosnia's recent friendly draws reinforce the mismatch. The contrarian read points to draw as undervalued, though Canada's home strength keeps confidence moderate.

Memory brief

  • - Match: m_2026_001 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_a_win, verdict correct Investment: bet win on side_a_win, stake 200.0, payout 286.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesso
  • - Match: m_2026_002 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction draw, verdict wrong Investment: bet loss on draw, stake 200.0, payout 0.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesson forward.
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.68Log loss 1.05

Meta thinking

  • Recent Form EvaluationReview the last five matches for Canada and Bosnia, examining results, goals scored/conceded, and the quality of opposition. Note that Canada’s recent schedule is entirely home friendlies, while Bosnia’s includes a Nations League fixture and a mix of home and away games. This assessment gauges each team’s pre-tournament trajectory without drawing conclusions.
  • Pre-Match Betting Market SignalsAnalyze the 14 captured pre-match odds to infer the market’s implied probabilities for a Canada win, draw, or Bosnia win. Look for consistency across bookmakers or any notable dispersion that could signal uncertainty, sharp money, or potential value opportunities in the pricing.
  • Form vs. Odds Contrarian CheckCross-reference the observed recent form of both teams with the betting market’s expectations. Identify any discrepancies where the odds may overrate or underrate a team relative to their recent results. This evidence-based contrarian angle focuses on mismatches between performance data and market sentiment.

Tokens: 5261

Perspectives

Recent Form EvaluationHome winRecent form evaluation strongly favors Canada: unbeaten in last 5 with only 3 conceded across those matches, while Bosnia has 1 win in 5 and a poor overall last-10 record defensively. Home venue, FIFA ranking gap (30 vs 65), and odds consensus all point toward a Canada win. Canada's draw frequency and low goal output moderate confidence.62%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Form Evaluation

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Canada: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 5, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.5%, draw 27.5%, side B win 21%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-11T12:07:24Z -> 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.44pp, draw +0.39pp, side B win +0.05pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.87 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.1 → side A 1.87 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.1; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.4; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.87, draw 3.4, side B 4.1; william_hill: side A 1.83, draw 3.3, side B 4.4; bet365: side A 1.85, draw 3.5, side B 4.5; marathonbet: side A 1.87, draw 3.54, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-10T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-09-07T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-5, result loss.

  10. Check match details

    #9

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  11. Check availability facts

    #10

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Canada: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  12. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #11

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 5, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.5%, draw 27.5%, side B win 21%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-11T12:07:24Z -> 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.44pp, draw +0.39pp, side B win +0.05pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.87 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.1 → side A 1.87 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.1; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.4; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.87, draw 3.4, side B 4.1; william_hill: side A 1.83, draw 3.3, side B 4.4; bet365: side A 1.85, draw 3.5, side B 4.5; marathonbet: side A 1.87, draw 3.54, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.7.

  13. Check tournament context

    #12

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina group context: Group B; visible fixtures show 0 completed matches and 5 remaining. Current group table: Bosnia & Herzegovina 0 pts/0 played; Canada 0 pts/0 played; Qatar 0 pts/0 played; Switzerland 0 pts/0 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Bosnia & Herzegovina can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Canada can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Qatar can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Switzerland can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina; Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina; Canada vs Qatar; Switzerland vs Canada. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  14. Check team ranking facts

    #13

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Canada's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 30. points 1556.48; previous rank 29; previous points 1559.15; rated matches 60; confederation CONCACAF.

  15. Check team ranking facts

    #14

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Bosnia & Herzegovina's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 65. points 1385.84; previous rank 71; previous points 1362.37; rated matches 44; confederation UEFA.

  16. Check team process facts

    #15

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Canada recent sample: 10 visible matches, with detailed data for 10. record 4W-5D-1L；goals for/against 9/4, per-match 0.9/0.4。 Stat averages: shots 9.88, shots on target 3.62, possession 48.12, corners 5.75, fouls 9.88, yellow cards 2, red cards 1, passes 333.5, pass accuracy 78.88. Event sample: scored first in 5, conceded first in 2, penalty events 2/0, 126 substitution events, average minute 67. Lineup sample: starting XI visible in 10; formations recorded: 4-4-2 (8). Coverage notes: player-performance data covers only part of the sample；statistics cover only part of the sample.

  17. Check team process facts

    #16

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Bosnia & Herzegovina recent sample: 10 visible matches, with detailed data for 10. record 1W-4D-5L；goals for/against 10/21, per-match 1.0/2.1。 Stat averages: shots 8.43, shots on target 2.57, possession 40.71, corners 2, fouls 12.29, yellow cards 2.14, red cards 0, passes 319.67, pass accuracy 75.17. Event sample: scored first in 2, conceded first in 6, penalty events 0/3, 120 substitution events, average minute 66. Lineup sample: starting XI visible in 10; formations recorded: 5-3-2 (4), 4-4-2 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1). Coverage notes: player-performance data covers only part of the sample；statistics cover only part of the sample.

  18. Check stadium history

    #17

    Stadium history: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. match records: no items.

  19. Check head-to-head

    #18

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  20. Recent Form Evaluation: Canada's last 5 matches show 2W-3D-0L (GF 6, GA 3), all home friendlies. Opposition included Rep. of Ireland, Uzbekistan, Tunisia, Iceland, and Guatemala — a mix of mid-tier sides. Canada has been defensively solid, conceding only 0.4 goals per match across their last 10. Bosnia's last 5: 1W-3D-1L (GF 7, GA 5), featuring a mix of home/away friendlies plus a Nations League draw vs Netherlands. Bosnia's broader last-10 record (1W-4D-5L, GA 21) reveals persistent defensive v

  21. Recent form evaluation strongly favors Canada: unbeaten in last 5 with only 3 conceded across those matches, while Bosnia has 1 win in 5 and a poor overall last-10 record defensively. Home venue, FIFA ranking gap (30 vs 65), and odds consensus all point toward a Canada win. Canada's draw frequency and low goal output moderate confidence.

Conclusion note

Canada enter this group opener unbeaten in their last five matches (2W-3D), with all five played at home and only three goals conceded. Bosnia's last five (1W-3D-1L) include a credible draw against the Netherlands but also a goalless stalemate with North Macedonia and a narrow loss to Slovenia, and the broader ten-match picture (1W-4D-5L, 21 conceded) reveals deeper defensive fragility. Canada's consistent defensive shape — just four goals conceded across their last ten outings — and the home setting at Toronto Stadium give them a clear form advantage, though their own modest scoring output and frequent draws (five of the last ten) introduce uncertainty. The bookmaker consensus (51.5% implied probability for Canada) aligns with the form gap. No head-to-head history or injury/suspension concerns alter the assessment.

Pre-Match Betting Market SignalsHome winConsensus implied probabilities across 14 bookmakers give Canada ~51.5%, draw ~27.5%, Bosnia ~21%. No dispersion; odds stable. Canada higher ranked (30 vs 65), playing at home in Toronto, with solid recent home results. Bosnia away form poor. Market signals align with fundamental evidence, making side_a_win the most defensible pick at moderate confidence.55%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Pre-Match Betting Market Signals

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Canada: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 5, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.5%, draw 27.5%, side B win 21%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-11T12:07:24Z -> 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.44pp, draw +0.39pp, side B win +0.05pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.87 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.1 → side A 1.87 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.1; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.4; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.87, draw 3.4, side B 4.1; william_hill: side A 1.83, draw 3.3, side B 4.4; bet365: side A 1.85, draw 3.5, side B 4.5; marathonbet: side A 1.87, draw 3.54, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-10T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-09-07T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-5, result loss.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 5, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.5%, draw 27.5%, side B win 21%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-11T12:07:24Z -> 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.44pp, draw +0.39pp, side B win +0.05pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.87 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.1 → side A 1.87 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.1; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.4; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.87, draw 3.4, side B 4.1; william_hill: side A 1.83, draw 3.3, side B 4.4; bet365: side A 1.85, draw 3.5, side B 4.5; marathonbet: side A 1.87, draw 3.54, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.7.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Canada's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 30. points 1556.48; previous rank 29; previous points 1559.15; rated matches 60; confederation CONCACAF.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Bosnia & Herzegovina's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 65. points 1385.84; previous rank 71; previous points 1362.37; rated matches 44; confederation UEFA.

  13. Check tournament context

    #12

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina group context: Group B; visible fixtures show 0 completed matches and 5 remaining. Current group table: Bosnia & Herzegovina 0 pts/0 played; Canada 0 pts/0 played; Qatar 0 pts/0 played; Switzerland 0 pts/0 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Bosnia & Herzegovina can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Canada can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Qatar can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Switzerland can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina; Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina; Canada vs Qatar; Switzerland vs Canada. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  14. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  15. Consensus implied probabilities across 14 bookmakers give Canada ~51.5%, draw ~27.5%, Bosnia ~21%. No dispersion; odds stable. Canada higher ranked (30 vs 65), playing at home in Toronto, with solid recent home results. Bosnia away form poor. Market signals align with fundamental evidence, making side_a_win the most defensible pick at moderate confidence.

Conclusion note

The 14 captured bookmaker odds show consistent pricing across the market, with latest consensus implied probabilities of 51.5% for Canada, 27.5% for a draw, and 21.0% for Bosnia. No notable dispersion exists among the sampled bookmakers (10bet, William Hill, bet365, Marathonbet all imply Canada around 50–52%). The minimal odds movement over the last day (Canada –0.44pp, draw +0.39pp) signals a stable market without sharp shifts. Canada's FIFA ranking (30th vs Bosnia's 65th) and recent home-friendly form (unbeaten in 8 of last 9 at home) support the favorite status already priced in. Bosnia's away record is weaker (one win in last six road matches). The market clearly points to a Canada win as the most likely single outcome, though the draw probability of 27.5% keeps confidence moderate.

Form vs. Odds Contrarian CheckDrawCanada win rate (40%) trails market-implied probability (51.5%); both teams draw frequently — Canada 5/10, Bosnia 4/10 — yet draw implied at only 27.5%. Canada's low goals output (0.9 per match) and Bosnia's recent friendly draws reinforce the mismatch. The contrarian read points to draw as undervalued, though Canada's home strength keeps confidence moderate.35%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Form vs. Odds Contrarian Check

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Canada: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Canada: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Bosnia & Herzegovina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 5, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.5%, draw 27.5%, side B win 21%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-11T12:07:24Z -> 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.44pp, draw +0.39pp, side B win +0.05pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.87 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.1 → side A 1.87 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.1; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.4; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.87, draw 3.4, side B 4.1; william_hill: side A 1.83, draw 3.3, side B 4.4; bet365: side A 1.85, draw 3.5, side B 4.5; marathonbet: side A 1.87, draw 3.54, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Canada:

    • 2026-06-05T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Rep. Of Ireland, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-02T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uzbekistan, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Iceland, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-01-18T03:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-11-14T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-15T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-10T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Australia, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2025-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Wales, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Bosnia & Herzegovina:

    • 2026-06-06T19:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Panama, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-05-29T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against FYR Macedonia, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2025-10-12T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Malta, home/away away, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2025-06-10T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-11-19T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-16T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away away, score 0-7, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-11T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Germany, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-09-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Hungary, home/away away, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2024-09-07T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 2-5, result loss.

  10. Check match details

    #9

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Fixture: Canada vs Bosnia and Herzegovina. Kickoff: 2026-06-12T19:00:00Z. Venue: Toronto Stadium, Toronto, altitude 76 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z: lineups not captured (source returned no rows); injuries not captured (source returned no rows); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  11. Check tournament context

    #10

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina group context: Group B; visible fixtures show 0 completed matches and 5 remaining. Current group table: Bosnia & Herzegovina 0 pts/0 played; Canada 0 pts/0 played; Qatar 0 pts/0 played; Switzerland 0 pts/0 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Bosnia & Herzegovina can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Canada can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Qatar can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Switzerland can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Canada vs Bosnia & Herzegovina; Switzerland vs Bosnia & Herzegovina; Canada vs Qatar; Switzerland vs Canada. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Canada's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 30. points 1556.48; previous rank 29; previous points 1559.15; rated matches 60; confederation CONCACAF.

  13. Check team ranking facts

    #12

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Bosnia & Herzegovina's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 65. points 1385.84; previous rank 71; previous points 1362.37; rated matches 44; confederation UEFA.

  14. Check stadium history

    #13

    Stadium history: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. match records: no items.

  15. Check head-to-head

    #14

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  16. Check team process facts

    #15

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Canada recent sample: 10 visible matches, with detailed data for 10. record 4W-5D-1L；goals for/against 9/4, per-match 0.9/0.4。 Stat averages: shots 9.88, shots on target 3.62, possession 48.12, corners 5.75, fouls 9.88, yellow cards 2, red cards 1, passes 333.5, pass accuracy 78.88. Event sample: scored first in 5, conceded first in 2, penalty events 2/0, 126 substitution events, average minute 67. Lineup sample: starting XI visible in 10; formations recorded: 4-4-2 (8). Coverage notes: player-performance data covers only part of the sample；statistics cover only part of the sample.

  17. Check team process facts

    #16

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Bosnia & Herzegovina recent sample: 10 visible matches, with detailed data for 10. record 1W-4D-5L；goals for/against 10/21, per-match 1.0/2.1。 Stat averages: shots 8.43, shots on target 2.57, possession 40.71, corners 2, fouls 12.29, yellow cards 2.14, red cards 0, passes 319.67, pass accuracy 75.17. Event sample: scored first in 2, conceded first in 6, penalty events 0/3, 120 substitution events, average minute 66. Lineup sample: starting XI visible in 10; formations recorded: 5-3-2 (4), 4-4-2 (2), 4-3-3 (2), 4-2-3-1 (1). Coverage notes: player-performance data covers only part of the sample；statistics cover only part of the sample.

  18. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #17

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-12T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 5, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 51.5%, draw 27.5%, side B win 21%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-11T12:07:24Z -> 2026-06-12T08:11:35Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.44pp, draw +0.39pp, side B win +0.05pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.87 / draw 3.45 / side B 4.1 → side A 1.87 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.1; william_hill side A 1.8 / draw 3.4 / side B 4.5 → side A 1.83 / draw 3.3 / side B 4.4; bet365 side A 1.83 / draw 3.6 / side B 4.33 → side A 1.85 / draw 3.5 / side B 4.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.87, draw 3.4, side B 4.1; william_hill: side A 1.83, draw 3.3, side B 4.4; bet365: side A 1.85, draw 3.5, side B 4.5; marathonbet: side A 1.87, draw 3.54, side B 4.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.07 / under 8; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.08 / under 8; marathonbet: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 7.7.

  19. Form vs. Odds Contrarian Check: Canada's recent form shows a 40% win rate (4W-5D-1L in last 10) with a low-scoring profile (0.9 GF, 0.4 GA per match). Bosnia's form is weaker (1W-4D-5L) but they have drawn their two most recent friendlies. The market implies Canada win at 51.5%, which overrates their actual win frequency, while the draw at 27.5% appears undervalued given both teams' high draw tendencies. The slight market movement toward the draw (+0.39pp) supports this contrarian read. The pred

  20. Canada win rate (40%) trails market-implied probability (51.5%); both teams draw frequently — Canada 5/10, Bosnia 4/10 — yet draw implied at only 27.5%. Canada's low goals output (0.9 per match) and Bosnia's recent friendly draws reinforce the mismatch. The contrarian read points to draw as undervalued, though Canada's home strength keeps confidence moderate.

Conclusion note

Canada's recent form shows a clear pattern: only 4 wins in 10 (40%), with 5 draws and a very low-scoring profile (0.9 goals scored, 0.4 conceded per match). Despite being ranked 30th and playing at home, their actual results do not support a 51.5% win probability implied by the market. Bosnia & Herzegovina have drawn their two most recent friendlies and 4 of their last 10 overall. The draw, priced at 27.5% implied, appears undervalued relative to both teams' tendency to share points. The slight market movement towards the draw (+0.39pp) further supports this contrarian angle. Canada's strong home defence makes a Bosnia win unlikely, but a low-scoring stalemate fits the form evidence better than the odds suggest.

Synthesis

Canada enter this match with an unbeaten run of five games (2W-3D), boasting a strong defensive record that includes only three goals conceded in those matches and four in the last ten. Playing at home in Toronto, they benefit from fan support and a higher FIFA ranking (30 vs 65). Bookmaker odds across 14 operators consistently price a Canada win at around 51.5% implied probability, with minimal market movement. Bosnia, ranked 65th, have managed one win in their last five (1W-3D-1L) and have a poor away record, yet they have shown the ability to draw, including a credible result against the Netherlands. The contrarian view emphasizes that Canada have drawn half of their last ten matches and score only 0.9 goals per game; Bosnia have drawn four of their last ten. This suggests the draw is undervalued relative to market pricing. After reconciling these signals, Canada's overall package—home advantage, defensive solidity, and market confidence—makes them the most likely winner, but the high draw frequency and Canada's low scoring output raise the chance of a stalemate, tempering confidence. A tight, low-scoring match is expected, with 1-0 for Canada the most probable exact result, followed by 0-0 and 1-1.

Reasoning summary: Recent form and market odds favor Canada, but both teams draw frequently, making a draw undervalued. Balanced synthesis gives Canada a narrow edge, with moderate confidence.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection m_2026_001Match: m_2026_001 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction side_a_win, verdict correct Investment: bet win on side_a_win, stake 200.0, payout 286.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lessorelevance 0.00
  • Post-match reflection m_2026_002Match: m_2026_002 Result: side_a Prediction evaluations by target: - t_minus_6h: prediction draw, verdict wrong Investment: bet loss on draw, stake 200.0, payout 0.0 Future rule: compare prediction direction, confidence and betting result before carrying this lesson forward.relevance 0.00