Qwen3.7 Max · New Zealand vs Belgium

New ZealandvsBelgium
Qwen
Qwen3.7 MaxAlibaba

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: PreviewInvestment source version: Late
PredictionAway win82%Hit
BetDraw$90Reverse
Post-match result1-5
Net P&L-$90
PredictionConfidence: 82%
Away win

Belgium enters this group stage match at BC Place Vancouver as overwhelming favorites against New Zealand, backed by an 82.1% implied win probability from the betting market. The decisive evidence tradeoff centers on the stark contrast in defensive stability and recent form. Belgium has conceded just two goals across their last five matches, including only one in their two World Cup group games, whereas New Zealand has conceded 11 goals in their last five matches and suffered heavy defeats in recent outings. Although Belgium will be without the suspended Nathan Ngoy and has a couple of questionable players, their squad depth remains vastly superior to a New Zealand side that has managed just one win in their last ten matches. Consequently, Belgium's structural quality and tight defensive record should comfortably overcome New Zealand's full squad availability.

Bet
Draw$903 bets
Net P&L-$90
  • Correct score 0-1Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 0-1

    $50
    odds 12.00Settled: loss-$50

    Betting rationale：Football posture: satellite correct-score shot aligned with Belgium's tournament narrative. Belgium has been struggling to break down compact defenses at this World Cup with 0-0 vs Iran and 1-1 vs Egypt, suggesting another tight, low-scoring affair rather than a rout. New Zealand sat deep against England (only 0-1 loss) and held Iran to 2-2, so a narrow Belgium win is a plausible script. The model assigns 11% to a 0-1 scoreline while execution odds of 12.00 imply only 8.3%, giving roughly +2.7%

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,186.48

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $30
    odds 8.00Settled: loss-$30

    Betting rationale：Football posture: draw trap protection, adding to existing small position. Match script: Belgium has drawn both their World Cup group matches (0-0 vs Iran, 1-1 vs Egypt), showing a persistent inability to convert dominance into wins. They're missing key players (Ngoy suspended, Debast and Doku injury doubts), which blunts their attacking edge. New Zealand showed they can compete by drawing 2-2 with Iran and are fighting for survival. The model gives the draw 14% probability vs the market's 12.5%

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,186.48

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $10
    odds 7.99Settled: loss-$10

    Betting rationale：Football posture: disciplined skip due to unplayable favorite price. Match script: Belgium are overwhelming favorites with superior squad depth and defensive stability, while New Zealand have conceded 11 goals in their last five matches and lack the quality to threaten consistently. However, the execution odds for a Belgium win (1.150) imply an 87% probability versus the model's 82%, creating negative edge (-5%). The only positive edge is on the draw (+0.005), which is statistically negligible a

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,186.48

Post-match result1-5
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 3 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 5%Draw 13%Away win 82%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 3
  1. #10-2
  2. #20-3
  3. #30-1

Analysis brief

  • - The decisive evidence tradeoff centers on the stark contrast in defensive stability: Belgium's World Cup group stage defensive record (1 goal conceded in 2 matches, clean sheet against Iran) and overall recent form (2 goals conceded in 5 matches) sharply contrasts with New Zealand's vulnerability (5 goals conceded in 2 World Cup matches, 11 in their last 5 overall). Belgium's Nathan Ngoy is suspended and Debast, Doku are questionable, which weakens their defensive depth slightly, but the consens
  • - The decisive evidence is the overwhelming market consensus: 82.1% implied probability for Belgium across 14 bookmaker samples, with odds stable or slightly shortening even after Belgium's two tournament draws and confirmed injury/suspension issues. New Zealand's poor recent form (one win in ten, heavy defeats to England, Haiti, Ecuador, Colombia, and Egypt) provides no counter-signal strong enough to challenge the market's view. The slight odds movement favoring Belgium suggests the market has a
  • - The decisive evidence tradeoff centers on Belgium's confirmed loss of Ngoy to suspension and two questionable players against New Zealand's full squad availability. However, Belgium's squad depth at a World Cup means even rotation-level replacements are typically superior to New Zealand's options, and the market's 82.1% implied probability for a Belgium win reflects this structural quality gap. New Zealand's poor recent form with multiple heavy defeats undermines any theoretical advantage from B

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.58. Probability distribution: Belgium win 58.0%; draw 24.0%; Egypt win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 2-
  • - Recall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.58. Probability distribution: Iran win 58.0%; draw 24.0%; New Zealand win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran
  • - Recall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.66. Probability distribution: Belgium win 66.0%; draw 21.0%; Iran win 13.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 1-0 Iran, Belgium 2-1 I
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.05Log loss 0.20

Meta thinking

  • Recent Form and Defensive StabilityExamine the contrast in recent performances, focusing on New Zealand's high goals conceded in their last five matches compared to Belgium's tight defensive records in their World Cup group stage games, to assess how each team's defensive setup might influence the match outcome.
  • Market Odds and Implied ProbabilitiesReview the 13 captured pre-match odds records to determine how the betting market evaluates Belgium's chances despite their two consecutive draws in the tournament and the presence of three injuries in their squad.
  • Squad Availability and Injury ImpactAnalyze the impact of the three reported injuries for Belgium against New Zealand's fully available squad, considering how missing personnel might affect Belgium's tactical depth and overall performance in this crucial group stage fixture.

Tokens: 2975

Perspectives

Recent Form and Defensive StabilityAway winThe decisive evidence tradeoff centers on the stark contrast in defensive stability: Belgium's World Cup group stage defensive record (1 goal conceded in 2 matches, clean sheet against Iran) and overall recent form (2 goals conceded in 5 matches) sharply contrasts with New Zealand's vulnerability (5 goals conceded in 2 World Cup matches, 11 in their last 5 overall). Belgium's Nathan Ngoy is suspended and Debast, Doku are questionable, which weakens their defensive depth slightly, but the consens82%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Form and Defensive Stability

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Fixture: NZL vs BEL. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (3 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Belgium injuries/availability: Zeno Debast (DF, #5) status questionable; J. Doku (Midfielder, #11) status questionable; N. Ngoy (Defender, #25) status questionable.
    • Belgium discipline/suspensions: Nathan Ngoy is suspended for the subsequent match due to a red card (from 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z / Iran; no extra sanction inferred).

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 5.8%, draw 12.1%, side B win 82.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z -> 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.05pp, draw -0.07pp, side B win +0.12pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 12.5 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.17 → side A 13 / draw 7.2 / side B 1.17; william_hill side A 17 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15 → side A 17 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15; bet365 side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.14 → side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.14. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 13, draw 7.2, side B 1.17; william_hill: side A 17, draw 7.5, side B 1.15; bet365: side A 15, draw 7.5, side B 1.14; marathonbet: side A 19.25, draw 8.1, side B 1.15. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 21; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.06 / under 6.95.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  10. The decisive evidence tradeoff centers on the stark contrast in defensive stability: Belgium's World Cup group stage defensive record (1 goal conceded in 2 matches, clean sheet against Iran) and overall recent form (2 goals conceded in 5 matches) sharply contrasts with New Zealand's vulnerability (5 goals conceded in 2 World Cup matches, 11 in their last 5 overall). Belgium's Nathan Ngoy is suspended and Debast, Doku are questionable, which weakens their defensive depth slightly, but the consens

Conclusion note

Belgium enters this World Cup group stage match at BC Place Vancouver as overwhelming favorites with an 82.1% implied win probability from bookmaker consensus, supported by their tight defensive record of conceding just 2 goals across their last 5 matches (0.4 per game), including only 1 goal in 2 World Cup group games against Iran and Egypt. New Zealand, by contrast, have conceded 11 goals in their last 5 matches (2.2 per game) including 5 goals in their 2 World Cup matches, and their recent form shows just 1 win against Chile in a FIFA Series alongside 7 losses in their last 10 visible matches.

Market Odds and Implied ProbabilitiesAway winThe decisive evidence is the overwhelming market consensus: 82.1% implied probability for Belgium across 14 bookmaker samples, with odds stable or slightly shortening even after Belgium's two tournament draws and confirmed injury/suspension issues. New Zealand's poor recent form (one win in ten, heavy defeats to England, Haiti, Ecuador, Colombia, and Egypt) provides no counter-signal strong enough to challenge the market's view. The slight odds movement favoring Belgium suggests the market has a78%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market Odds and Implied Probabilities

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Fixture: NZL vs BEL. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (3 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Belgium injuries/availability: Zeno Debast (DF, #5) status questionable; J. Doku (Midfielder, #11) status questionable; N. Ngoy (Defender, #25) status questionable.
    • Belgium discipline/suspensions: Nathan Ngoy is suspended for the subsequent match due to a red card (from 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z / Iran; no extra sanction inferred).

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 5.8%, draw 12.1%, side B win 82.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z -> 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.05pp, draw -0.07pp, side B win +0.12pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 12.5 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.17 → side A 13 / draw 7.2 / side B 1.17; william_hill side A 17 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15 → side A 17 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15; bet365 side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.14 → side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.14. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 13, draw 7.2, side B 1.17; william_hill: side A 17, draw 7.5, side B 1.15; bet365: side A 15, draw 7.5, side B 1.14; marathonbet: side A 19.25, draw 8.1, side B 1.15. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 21; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.06 / under 6.95.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  10. The decisive evidence is the overwhelming market consensus: 82.1% implied probability for Belgium across 14 bookmaker samples, with odds stable or slightly shortening even after Belgium's two tournament draws and confirmed injury/suspension issues. New Zealand's poor recent form (one win in ten, heavy defeats to England, Haiti, Ecuador, Colombia, and Egypt) provides no counter-signal strong enough to challenge the market's view. The slight odds movement favoring Belgium suggests the market has a

Conclusion note

The betting market across 13 bookmaker samples assigns Belgium an 82.1% implied win probability with odds ranging from 1.14 to 1.17, and this consensus slightly strengthened (Belgium +0.12pp) between the two most recent visible update points despite Belgium's two consecutive World Cup draws and three squad absences including Nathan Ngoy's confirmed suspension. New Zealand's visible recent form shows only one win in ten matches, including a 1-3 World Cup loss to Egypt, which aligns with the market's overwhelming assessment that Belgium remains the far stronger side.

Squad Availability and Injury ImpactAway winThe decisive evidence tradeoff centers on Belgium's confirmed loss of Ngoy to suspension and two questionable players against New Zealand's full squad availability. However, Belgium's squad depth at a World Cup means even rotation-level replacements are typically superior to New Zealand's options, and the market's 82.1% implied probability for a Belgium win reflects this structural quality gap. New Zealand's poor recent form with multiple heavy defeats undermines any theoretical advantage from B72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Squad Availability and Injury Impact

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Fixture: NZL vs BEL. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (3 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Belgium injuries/availability: Zeno Debast (DF, #5) status questionable; J. Doku (Midfielder, #11) status questionable; N. Ngoy (Defender, #25) status questionable.
    • Belgium discipline/suspensions: Nathan Ngoy is suspended for the subsequent match due to a red card (from 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z / Iran; no extra sanction inferred).

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 5.8%, draw 12.1%, side B win 82.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z -> 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.05pp, draw -0.07pp, side B win +0.12pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 12.5 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.17 → side A 13 / draw 7.2 / side B 1.17; william_hill side A 17 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15 → side A 17 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15; bet365 side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.14 → side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.14. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 13, draw 7.2, side B 1.17; william_hill: side A 17, draw 7.5, side B 1.15; bet365: side A 15, draw 7.5, side B 1.14; marathonbet: side A 19.25, draw 8.1, side B 1.15. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 21; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.06 / under 6.95.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  10. The decisive evidence tradeoff centers on Belgium's confirmed loss of Ngoy to suspension and two questionable players against New Zealand's full squad availability. However, Belgium's squad depth at a World Cup means even rotation-level replacements are typically superior to New Zealand's options, and the market's 82.1% implied probability for a Belgium win reflects this structural quality gap. New Zealand's poor recent form with multiple heavy defeats undermines any theoretical advantage from B

Conclusion note

Belgium enters this group stage fixture with confirmed suspension of defender Nathan Ngoy following his red card against Iran, plus questionable status for Zeno Debast and J. Doku, yet the consensus odds still heavily favor Belgium at 82.1% implied probability. New Zealand's squad is fully available but their recent form is alarming with seven losses in ten matches including a 1-3 defeat to Egypt and a 0-4 loss to Haiti, indicating they lack the quality to exploit Belgium's potential defensive depth issues.

Synthesis

Belgium enters this group stage match at BC Place Vancouver as overwhelming favorites against New Zealand, backed by an 82.1% implied win probability from the betting market. The decisive evidence tradeoff centers on the stark contrast in defensive stability and recent form. Belgium has conceded just two goals across their last five matches, including only one in their two World Cup group games, whereas New Zealand has conceded 11 goals in their last five matches and suffered heavy defeats in recent outings. Although Belgium will be without the suspended Nathan Ngoy and has a couple of questionable players, their squad depth remains vastly superior to a New Zealand side that has managed just one win in their last ten matches. Consequently, Belgium's structural quality and tight defensive record should comfortably overcome New Zealand's full squad availability.

Reasoning summary: All three analytical perspectives strongly favor Belgium, aligning with the overwhelming market consensus that assigns them an 82.1% win probability. Belgium's recent defensive stability and superior squad depth easily offset the suspension of Nathan Ngoy and minor injury concerns. New Zealand's alarming recent form, characterized by multiple heavy defeats and a high goals-conceded rate, provides no credible counter-signal, making a Belgium victory the most defensible outcome.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Egypt Preview editionRecall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.58. Probability distribution: Belgium win 58.0%; draw 24.0%; Egypt win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 2-relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iran vs New Zealand Preview editionRecall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.58. Probability distribution: Iran win 58.0%; draw 24.0%; New Zealand win 18.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iranrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Iran Preview editionRecall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.66. Probability distribution: Belgium win 66.0%; draw 21.0%; Iran win 13.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 1-0 Iran, Belgium 2-1 Irelevance 0.50