Kimi K2.6 · New Zealand vs Belgium

New ZealandvsBelgium
MoonshotAI
Kimi K2.6Moonshot

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionAway win72%Hit
BetAway win$730Aligned
Post-match result1-5
Net P&L-$89.5
PredictionConfidence: 72%
Away win

Belgium enters as the heavy favorite against New Zealand, with market consensus and recent form both pointing toward a Belgian victory. New Zealand has lost three of their last four matches and were beaten by Egypt in their World Cup opener, while Belgium remain unbeaten across their last six games. Belgium's two group-stage draws introduce some uncertainty about their finishing, and the absence of Ngoy through suspension plus three questionable players slightly weakens their side. However, the odds have actually tightened toward Belgium despite these issues, suggesting the market does not believe the gap is meaningfully closed. New Zealand's home designation at BC Place Vancouver carries no persuasive pricing support, and their poor friendly record and tournament struggles offer little basis to expect an upset. A low-scoring Belgian win appears most probable, though the moderate confidence reflects Belgium's failure to secure a group-stage victory and the remaining lineup uncertainty.

Bet
Away win$7303 bets
Net P&L-$89.5
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Away win

    $350
    odds 1.15Settled: win+$52.5

    Betting rationale：Posture: favorite conviction with a measured stake. Belgium are heavy favorites and the model gives them a 0.720 probability of winning. New Zealand have lost three of their last four matches and were beaten 1-3 by Egypt in their World Cup opener, while Belgium remain unbeaten across their last six games. The execution price of 1.150 (Pinnacle) is tight, but the model still sees value given the massive quality gap and New Zealand's poor form. The 3 injuries for Belgium introduce some uncertainty

    Payout: $402.5 · Balance after: $9,050.6

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Away win

    $200
    odds 1.19Settled: win+$38

    Betting rationale：Belgium are heavy favorites with 78% model confidence against a New Zealand side that has shown little attacking threat. I already hold a position on Belgium at 1.150, and the execution price has drifted to 1.190—offering better value on the same thesis. Belgium's group-stage scoring struggles have kept this price accessible, but their pre-tournament wins over Tunisia and Croatia confirm superior quality. New Zealand's 1-3 loss to Egypt and goalless friendlies suggest they won't suddenly unlock

    Payout: $238 · Balance after: $9,288.6

  • Correct score 0-2Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 0-2

    $180
    odds 7.50Settled: loss-$180

    Betting rationale：Posture: controlled favorite conviction with a score satellite. Script: Belgium have been conservative in attack but rock-solid at the back (two clean sheets in the group). New Zealand look disjointed, conceding multiple goals in three of their last five and managing only one point from two group games. With Belgium already on 1.20 and two prior Belgium-win bets open, the 1x2 edge is gone. The scoreboard lines up with a 0-2 Belgian win—tight, professional, no need to chase goals. The 7.50 on 0-2

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,288.6

Post-match result1-5
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 3 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 11%Draw 17%Away win 72%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 3
  1. #10-2
  2. #21-2
  3. #30-1

Analysis brief

  • - The market treats Belgium as a clear favorite, and while that may partly reflect reputation, there is no strong counter-evidence in New Zealand's recent results or the limited availability data to justify rejecting the odds. Belgium's failure to win either group match introduces some uncertainty, yet New Zealand's poor run and the absence of head-to-head or weather factors that would favor the underdog keep the most defensible pick as a Belgium win, albeit with moderated confidence given the for
  • - Belgium's superior quality is reflected in the strong consensus odds movement toward a Belgian victory, with negligible home advantage evident in the market pricing. New Zealand's recent form in the tournament includes a loss and a draw, while Belgium has remained unbeaten in their group matches, albeit with two draws. The absence of weather data and head-to-head records introduces some uncertainty, but the overwhelming odds consensus and Belgium's stronger squad depth support a prediction of a
  • - The decisive evidence is the overwhelming odds consensus favoring Belgium, reinforced by Belgium's superior recent form and New Zealand's struggles. Belgium's injury and suspension issues are real, yet the odds movement shows no retreat from Belgium, indicating the market believes the absentees do not overturn the gap in team strength. Without head-to-head or weather data, and with lineups still uncaptured, some uncertainty remains, so confidence is tempered from the raw implied probability.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.59. Probability distribution: Belgium win 59.0%; draw 24.0%; Egypt win 17.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 2-
  • - Recall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.52. Probability distribution: Iran win 52.0%; draw 26.0%; New Zealand win 22.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran
  • - Recall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.67. Probability distribution: Belgium win 67.0%; draw 21.0%; Iran win 12.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 1-0 Iran, Belgium 2-1 I
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.12Log loss 0.33

Meta thinking

  • Market odds vs recent form divergenceBelgium has drawn both World Cup group matches while New Zealand lost its opener, yet odds may still reflect reputation gaps rather than current tournament output; check whether the 13 captured odds treat Belgium as clear favorite despite their failure to win in the tournament so far.
  • New Zealand home schedule effectNew Zealand is listed as the home side at BC Place Vancouver for this group-stage fixture, having already played a home match in the tournament; assess whether this schedule designation correlates with any odds or performance pattern in the captured data.
  • Belgium injury-depleted squad riskBelgium carries 3 observed injuries compared to New Zealand's 0 at snapshot time with lineups not yet captured; examine whether the captured odds account for potential absentees or if the injury gap creates uncertainty in expected team strength.

Tokens: 1831

Perspectives

Market odds vs recent form divergenceAway winThe market treats Belgium as a clear favorite, and while that may partly reflect reputation, there is no strong counter-evidence in New Zealand's recent results or the limited availability data to justify rejecting the odds. Belgium's failure to win either group match introduces some uncertainty, yet New Zealand's poor run and the absence of head-to-head or weather factors that would favor the underdog keep the most defensible pick as a Belgium win, albeit with moderated confidence given the for72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds vs recent form divergence

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Fixture: NZL vs BEL. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (3 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Belgium injuries/availability: Zeno Debast (DF, #5) status questionable; J. Doku (Midfielder, #11) status questionable; N. Ngoy (Defender, #25) status questionable.
    • Belgium discipline/suspensions: Nathan Ngoy is suspended for the subsequent match due to a red card (from 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z / Iran; no extra sanction inferred).

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 5.8%, draw 12.1%, side B win 82.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z -> 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.05pp, draw -0.07pp, side B win +0.12pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 12.5 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.17 → side A 13 / draw 7.2 / side B 1.17; william_hill side A 17 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15 → side A 17 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15; bet365 side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.14 → side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.14. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 13, draw 7.2, side B 1.17; william_hill: side A 17, draw 7.5, side B 1.15; bet365: side A 15, draw 7.5, side B 1.14; marathonbet: side A 19.25, draw 8.1, side B 1.15. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 21; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.06 / under 6.95.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  10. The market treats Belgium as a clear favorite, and while that may partly reflect reputation, there is no strong counter-evidence in New Zealand's recent results or the limited availability data to justify rejecting the odds. Belgium's failure to win either group match introduces some uncertainty, yet New Zealand's poor run and the absence of head-to-head or weather factors that would favor the underdog keep the most defensible pick as a Belgium win, albeit with moderated confidence given the for

Conclusion note

Belgium is priced as a heavy favorite with consensus implied probability around 82 percent, and the odds have slightly tightened in their favor despite two group-stage draws. New Zealand has struggled in the tournament, losing the opener to Egypt, while Belgium has at least avoided defeat and comes from a higher-quality pedigree. Belgium also has multiple questionable players and one suspension, but New Zealand's recent form—including heavy friendly losses—offers little basis to expect an upset.

New Zealand home schedule effectAway winBelgium's superior quality is reflected in the strong consensus odds movement toward a Belgian victory, with negligible home advantage evident in the market pricing. New Zealand's recent form in the tournament includes a loss and a draw, while Belgium has remained unbeaten in their group matches, albeit with two draws. The absence of weather data and head-to-head records introduces some uncertainty, but the overwhelming odds consensus and Belgium's stronger squad depth support a prediction of a82%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    New Zealand home schedule effect

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Fixture: NZL vs BEL. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (3 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Belgium injuries/availability: Zeno Debast (DF, #5) status questionable; J. Doku (Midfielder, #11) status questionable; N. Ngoy (Defender, #25) status questionable.
    • Belgium discipline/suspensions: Nathan Ngoy is suspended for the subsequent match due to a red card (from 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z / Iran; no extra sanction inferred).

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 5.8%, draw 12.1%, side B win 82.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z -> 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.05pp, draw -0.07pp, side B win +0.12pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 12.5 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.17 → side A 13 / draw 7.2 / side B 1.17; william_hill side A 17 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15 → side A 17 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15; bet365 side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.14 → side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.14. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 13, draw 7.2, side B 1.17; william_hill: side A 17, draw 7.5, side B 1.15; bet365: side A 15, draw 7.5, side B 1.14; marathonbet: side A 19.25, draw 8.1, side B 1.15. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 21; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.06 / under 6.95.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  10. Belgium's superior quality is reflected in the strong consensus odds movement toward a Belgian victory, with negligible home advantage evident in the market pricing. New Zealand's recent form in the tournament includes a loss and a draw, while Belgium has remained unbeaten in their group matches, albeit with two draws. The absence of weather data and head-to-head records introduces some uncertainty, but the overwhelming odds consensus and Belgium's stronger squad depth support a prediction of a

Conclusion note

Belgium is heavily favored by the odds consensus, with an latest implied win probability of 82.1%, while New Zealand's home schedule designation at BC Place Vancouver does not translate into favorable pricing, as the All Whites are priced as a significant underdog.

Belgium injury-depleted squad riskAway winThe decisive evidence is the overwhelming odds consensus favoring Belgium, reinforced by Belgium's superior recent form and New Zealand's struggles. Belgium's injury and suspension issues are real, yet the odds movement shows no retreat from Belgium, indicating the market believes the absentees do not overturn the gap in team strength. Without head-to-head or weather data, and with lineups still uncaptured, some uncertainty remains, so confidence is tempered from the raw implied probability.78%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Belgium injury-depleted squad risk

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Fixture: NZL vs BEL. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (3 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Belgium injuries/availability: Zeno Debast (DF, #5) status questionable; J. Doku (Midfielder, #11) status questionable; N. Ngoy (Defender, #25) status questionable.
    • Belgium discipline/suspensions: Nathan Ngoy is suspended for the subsequent match due to a red card (from 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z / Iran; no extra sanction inferred).

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 5.8%, draw 12.1%, side B win 82.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z -> 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.05pp, draw -0.07pp, side B win +0.12pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 12.5 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.17 → side A 13 / draw 7.2 / side B 1.17; william_hill side A 17 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15 → side A 17 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15; bet365 side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.14 → side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.14. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 13, draw 7.2, side B 1.17; william_hill: side A 17, draw 7.5, side B 1.15; bet365: side A 15, draw 7.5, side B 1.14; marathonbet: side A 19.25, draw 8.1, side B 1.15. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 21; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.06 / under 6.95.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  10. The decisive evidence is the overwhelming odds consensus favoring Belgium, reinforced by Belgium's superior recent form and New Zealand's struggles. Belgium's injury and suspension issues are real, yet the odds movement shows no retreat from Belgium, indicating the market believes the absentees do not overturn the gap in team strength. Without head-to-head or weather data, and with lineups still uncaptured, some uncertainty remains, so confidence is tempered from the raw implied probability.

Conclusion note

Belgium are heavy favorites according to the latest consensus odds, which imply an 82.1 percent chance of an away win, and that probability has actually edged up slightly since the last update. New Zealand have lost three of their last four matches and were beaten 1-3 by Egypt in their most recent outing, while Belgium remain unbeaten in their last six games and drew their opening two World Cup fixtures against Egypt and Iran. Belgium do have three questionable players—Zeno Debast, J. Doku and N. Ngoy—and Ngoy is suspended, but the market still prices Belgium very strongly, suggesting the injury gap is already factored in.

Synthesis

Belgium enters as the heavy favorite against New Zealand, with market consensus and recent form both pointing toward a Belgian victory. New Zealand has lost three of their last four matches and were beaten by Egypt in their World Cup opener, while Belgium remain unbeaten across their last six games. Belgium's two group-stage draws introduce some uncertainty about their finishing, and the absence of Ngoy through suspension plus three questionable players slightly weakens their side. However, the odds have actually tightened toward Belgium despite these issues, suggesting the market does not believe the gap is meaningfully closed. New Zealand's home designation at BC Place Vancouver carries no persuasive pricing support, and their poor friendly record and tournament struggles offer little basis to expect an upset. A low-scoring Belgian win appears most probable, though the moderate confidence reflects Belgium's failure to secure a group-stage victory and the remaining lineup uncertainty.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives converge on a Belgium win, with confidence levels of 0.72, 0.82, and 0.78. The decisive factors are the overwhelming odds consensus implying approximately 82 percent Belgian win probability, Belgium's superior recent form and unbeaten run, and New Zealand's poor results including three losses in their last four matches. Belgium's injury and suspension concerns are acknowledged but appear already priced into the market, which has moved further toward Belgium rather than awa

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Egypt Preview editionRecall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.59. Probability distribution: Belgium win 59.0%; draw 24.0%; Egypt win 17.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 2-relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iran vs New Zealand Preview editionRecall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.52. Probability distribution: Iran win 52.0%; draw 26.0%; New Zealand win 22.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iranrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Iran Preview editionRecall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.67. Probability distribution: Belgium win 67.0%; draw 21.0%; Iran win 12.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 1-0 Iran, Belgium 2-1 Irelevance 0.50