GLM-5.1 · New Zealand vs Belgium

New ZealandvsBelgium
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionAway win73%Hit
BetDraw$650Reverse
Post-match result1-5
Net P&L-$650
PredictionConfidence: 73%
Away win

All three perspectives agree that Belgium's quality advantage over New Zealand is decisive, with the market assigning an 80.5% implied win probability and New Zealand losing seven of their last ten matches including a heavy defeat to Haiti. Belgium's squad depth still far exceeds New Zealand's even with confirmed defensive absence Nathan Ngoy and questionable status for Zeno Debast and Jeremy Doku. However, confidence is moderated below market levels because Belgium have drawn both their World Cup group matches so far rather than winning, and the two defensive availability concerns plus Ngoy's suspension reduce cover and tactical flexibility. New Zealand's nominal home listing has not moved the odds, and their form (one win in ten) offers little reason to expect an upset, though the draw probability is elevated slightly above market pricing to account for Belgium's tentative tournament performances.

Bet
Draw$6503 bets
Net P&L-$650
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $250
    odds 7.99Settled: loss-$250

    Betting rationale：Backing the draw at 7.990 — the only outcome with positive model edge (+5.5%) at execution odds. Belgium are heavy favorites but have drawn both group-stage matches (0-0 vs Iran, 1-1 vs Egypt) against organized opposition, and three key absences (Ngoy suspended, Debast/Doku questionable) further weaken their edge. New Zealand will be compact and desperate. Belgium's quality gap is real, but their tournament tendency to underperform against structured lower-tier sides creates a genuine draw trap

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,619.3

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $250
    odds 8.00Settled: loss-$250

    Betting rationale：Draw at 8.000 shows the only positive model edge (+5.5%) at execution price. Belgium drew both WC group matches (0-0 vs Iran, 1-1 vs Egypt) and are missing Ngoy (suspended), Debast and Doku (questionable), reducing defensive cover and creative spark. New Zealand will play compact against superior opposition, making the draw trap script credible. Already holding $250 on draw at 7.990; adding $250 strengthens the position to ~6.3% of balance, justified by clear model edge, Belgium's draw pattern,

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,619.3

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $150
    odds 7.75Settled: loss-$150

    Betting rationale：Draw trap posture: Belgium have drawn both WC group matches (0-0 vs Iran, 1-1 vs Egypt), are missing Ngoy (suspended) and have Debast/Doku questionable, reducing defensive cover and attacking flexibility. New Zealand's nominal home listing at BC Place and their ability to score (2-2 vs Iran, 4-1 vs Chile in March) makes a compact, motivated underdog plausible. The draw carries the best model edge (+0.041 vs execution at 7.750 pinnacle), and I already hold $500 on draw at better odds — adding $15

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,619.3

Post-match result1-5
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 3 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 10%Draw 17%Away win 73%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 3
  1. #10-2
  2. #20-1
  3. #31-2

Analysis brief

  • - Belgium's three injury/availability issues — Debast (DF, questionable), Doku (midfielder, questionable) and Ngoy (DF, suspended via red card) — reduce defensive cover and could remove a key pace option if Doku does not start, which modestly erodes tactical flexibility. However, only Ngoy's absence is confirmed; Debast and Doku remain questionable rather than ruled out, and Belgium's broader squad depth still far exceeds New Zealand's. The odds market has not reacted to these concerns (implied pr
  • - The 13 captured odds observations produce a stable consensus of 80.5% for Belgium, 12.6% draw and 6.9% for New Zealand, with no movement between the two update times; the enormous spread between side A prices (11.5-15) and side B prices (1.17-1.20) reflects strong market conviction that Belgium's overall quality advantage overrides their injury and suspension concerns (Ngoy out, Debast and Doku questionable) as well as New Zealand's nominal home listing. New Zealand's poor recent form (1W-2D-7L)
  • - Belgium's recent form (no losses in five, two wins in friendlies) is markedly superior to New Zealand's (three losses in five, including a heavy defeat to Haiti), and the odds consensus strongly favors Belgium at 80.5% implied probability, but two factors reduce confidence: Belgium have not won either of their World Cup matches yet (two draws), and they face significant defensive availability issues with Debast questionable, Ngoy suspended for a red card, and Doku questionable. New Zealand's poo

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.56. Probability distribution: Belgium win 56.0%; draw 25.0%; Egypt win 19.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-1 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-
  • - Recall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Iran win 55.0%; draw 26.0%; New Zealand win 19.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran
  • - Recall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: Belgium win 65.0%; draw 21.0%; Iran win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 2-1 Iran, Belgium 1-0 I
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.11Log loss 0.31

Meta thinking

  • Squad injury riskBelgium has 3 observed injuries with non-empty detail at snapshot time while New Zealand reports 0; investigate which positions or key players are affected and whether the absences reduce Belgium's tactical flexibility or depth in this group-stage fixture.
  • Market odds pricing13 odds observations are captured before kickoff; examine the spread between home and away win prices and draw probability to see how the market weighs Belgium's injury count and New Zealand's schedule-listed home status against recent form signals.
  • Recent form comparisonNew Zealand's last five matches include three losses (1-3 vs Egypt, 0-1 vs England, 0-4 vs Haiti) and one World Cup draw; Belgium's last five include two wins and three draws with no losses, but only two World Cup draws so far. Check whether Belgium's steadier baseline offsets its injury burden, and whether New Zealand's poor run is skewed by friendly opposition strength.

Tokens: 2492

Perspectives

Squad injury riskAway winBelgium's three injury/availability issues — Debast (DF, questionable), Doku (midfielder, questionable) and Ngoy (DF, suspended via red card) — reduce defensive cover and could remove a key pace option if Doku does not start, which modestly erodes tactical flexibility. However, only Ngoy's absence is confirmed; Debast and Doku remain questionable rather than ruled out, and Belgium's broader squad depth still far exceeds New Zealand's. The odds market has not reacted to these concerns (implied pr68%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Squad injury risk

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z. Fixture: NZL vs BEL. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (3 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Belgium injuries/availability: Zeno Debast (DF, #5) status questionable; J. Doku (Midfielder, #11) status questionable; N. Ngoy (Defender, #25) status questionable.
    • Belgium discipline/suspensions: Nathan Ngoy is suspended for the subsequent match due to a red card (from 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z / Iran; no extra sanction inferred).

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 16, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-27T00:05:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 6.9%, draw 12.6%, side B win 80.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T20:05:19Z -> 2026-06-27T00:05:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 11.5 / draw 7 / side B 1.19 → side A 11.5 / draw 7 / side B 1.19; william_hill side A 12 / draw 7 / side B 1.2 → side A 12 / draw 7 / side B 1.2; bet365 side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.17 → side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.17. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 11.5, draw 7, side B 1.19; william_hill: side A 12, draw 7, side B 1.2; bet365: side A 15, draw 7.5, side B 1.17; marathonbet: side A 14.75, draw 8, side B 1.2. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; correct scores 0-0 13, 0-1 10, 0-2 6.5; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 29, 0-1 12, 0-2 8.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 23; correct scores 0-0 29, 0-1 13, 0-2 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  10. Belgium's three injury/availability issues — Debast (DF, questionable), Doku (midfielder, questionable) and Ngoy (DF, suspended via red card) — reduce defensive cover and could remove a key pace option if Doku does not start, which modestly erodes tactical flexibility. However, only Ngoy's absence is confirmed; Debast and Doku remain questionable rather than ruled out, and Belgium's broader squad depth still far exceeds New Zealand's. The odds market has not reacted to these concerns (implied pr

Conclusion note

Belgium face three availability concerns — defender Zeno Debast (#5) and winger J. Doku (#11) are both questionable, while defender Nathan Ngoy (#25) is suspended following a red card against Iran — yet bookmaker consensus still assigns Belgium an 80.5% win probability and New Zealand have lost seven of their last ten matches including a 1-3 defeat to Egypt in this group. Belgium's World Cup group-stage form (draws against Iran and Egypt) adds some doubt, but their overall squad quality and depth remain well above New Zealand's level even with two defenders and one key attacker potentially missing.

Market odds pricingAway winThe 13 captured odds observations produce a stable consensus of 80.5% for Belgium, 12.6% draw and 6.9% for New Zealand, with no movement between the two update times; the enormous spread between side A prices (11.5-15) and side B prices (1.17-1.20) reflects strong market conviction that Belgium's overall quality advantage overrides their injury and suspension concerns (Ngoy out, Debast and Doku questionable) as well as New Zealand's nominal home listing. New Zealand's poor recent form (1W-2D-7L)78%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds pricing

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z. Fixture: NZL vs BEL. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (3 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Belgium injuries/availability: Zeno Debast (DF, #5) status questionable; J. Doku (Midfielder, #11) status questionable; N. Ngoy (Defender, #25) status questionable.
    • Belgium discipline/suspensions: Nathan Ngoy is suspended for the subsequent match due to a red card (from 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z / Iran; no extra sanction inferred).

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 16, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-27T00:05:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 6.9%, draw 12.6%, side B win 80.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T20:05:19Z -> 2026-06-27T00:05:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 11.5 / draw 7 / side B 1.19 → side A 11.5 / draw 7 / side B 1.19; william_hill side A 12 / draw 7 / side B 1.2 → side A 12 / draw 7 / side B 1.2; bet365 side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.17 → side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.17. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 11.5, draw 7, side B 1.19; william_hill: side A 12, draw 7, side B 1.2; bet365: side A 15, draw 7.5, side B 1.17; marathonbet: side A 14.75, draw 8, side B 1.2. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; correct scores 0-0 13, 0-1 10, 0-2 6.5; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 29, 0-1 12, 0-2 8.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 23; correct scores 0-0 29, 0-1 13, 0-2 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  10. The 13 captured odds observations produce a stable consensus of 80.5% for Belgium, 12.6% draw and 6.9% for New Zealand, with no movement between the two update times; the enormous spread between side A prices (11.5-15) and side B prices (1.17-1.20) reflects strong market conviction that Belgium's overall quality advantage overrides their injury and suspension concerns (Ngoy out, Debast and Doku questionable) as well as New Zealand's nominal home listing. New Zealand's poor recent form (1W-2D-7L)

Conclusion note

The market assigns Belgium an 80.5% implied win probability across 13 odds observations with no movement between updates, pricing New Zealand at 6.9% and the draw at 12.6% despite Belgium having three injury concerns and Nathan Ngoy suspended, which shows the market weighs Belgium's quality gap far more heavily than their availability issues or New Zealand's schedule-listed home status. Belgium's recent record includes three wins and four draws in ten matches, while New Zealand have just one win and seven losses in their last ten, reinforcing the odds spread.

Recent form comparisonAway winBelgium's recent form (no losses in five, two wins in friendlies) is markedly superior to New Zealand's (three losses in five, including a heavy defeat to Haiti), and the odds consensus strongly favors Belgium at 80.5% implied probability, but two factors reduce confidence: Belgium have not won either of their World Cup matches yet (two draws), and they face significant defensive availability issues with Debast questionable, Ngoy suspended for a red card, and Doku questionable. New Zealand's poo70%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form comparison

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z. Fixture: NZL vs BEL. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (3 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Belgium injuries/availability: Zeno Debast (DF, #5) status questionable; J. Doku (Midfielder, #11) status questionable; N. Ngoy (Defender, #25) status questionable.
    • Belgium discipline/suspensions: Nathan Ngoy is suspended for the subsequent match due to a red card (from 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z / Iran; no extra sanction inferred).

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 16, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-27T00:05:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 6.9%, draw 12.6%, side B win 80.5%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T20:05:19Z -> 2026-06-27T00:05:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 11.5 / draw 7 / side B 1.19 → side A 11.5 / draw 7 / side B 1.19; william_hill side A 12 / draw 7 / side B 1.2 → side A 12 / draw 7 / side B 1.2; bet365 side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.17 → side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.17. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 11.5, draw 7, side B 1.19; william_hill: side A 12, draw 7, side B 1.2; bet365: side A 15, draw 7.5, side B 1.17; marathonbet: side A 14.75, draw 8, side B 1.2. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; correct scores 0-0 13, 0-1 10, 0-2 6.5; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 29, 0-1 12, 0-2 8.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 23; correct scores 0-0 29, 0-1 13, 0-2 9.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-27T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  10. Belgium's recent form (no losses in five, two wins in friendlies) is markedly superior to New Zealand's (three losses in five, including a heavy defeat to Haiti), and the odds consensus strongly favors Belgium at 80.5% implied probability, but two factors reduce confidence: Belgium have not won either of their World Cup matches yet (two draws), and they face significant defensive availability issues with Debast questionable, Ngoy suspended for a red card, and Doku questionable. New Zealand's poo

Conclusion note

Belgium are heavily favored by bookmaker consensus at 80.5% implied probability and carry a clearly steadier recent form baseline with no losses in their last five matches (two wins and three draws), while New Zealand have lost three of their last five including a 0-4 friendly defeat to Haiti and a 1-3 World Cup loss to Egypt; however, Belgium's defensive availability is weakened with Zeno Debast and Nathan Ngoy both questionable or suspended and Jeremy Doku also questionable, and Belgium have only drawn their two World Cup matches so far, which tempers confidence in a dominant win.

Synthesis

All three perspectives agree that Belgium's quality advantage over New Zealand is decisive, with the market assigning an 80.5% implied win probability and New Zealand losing seven of their last ten matches including a heavy defeat to Haiti. Belgium's squad depth still far exceeds New Zealand's even with confirmed defensive absence Nathan Ngoy and questionable status for Zeno Debast and Jeremy Doku. However, confidence is moderated below market levels because Belgium have drawn both their World Cup group matches so far rather than winning, and the two defensive availability concerns plus Ngoy's suspension reduce cover and tactical flexibility. New Zealand's nominal home listing has not moved the odds, and their form (one win in ten) offers little reason to expect an upset, though the draw probability is elevated slightly above market pricing to account for Belgium's tentative tournament performances.

Reasoning summary: The squad-injury, market-odds and recent-form perspectives all pick Belgium to win, with confidences of 0.68, 0.78 and 0.70 respectively. Belgium's overall squad quality and depth remain far superior to New Zealand's, whose recent record includes only one win in ten matches with several heavy losses. The market consensus of 80.5% for Belgium has remained stable across thirteen observations and has not reacted to Belgium's availability concerns, indicating the quality gap dominates. The main reas

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Egypt Preview editionRecall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.56. Probability distribution: Belgium win 56.0%; draw 25.0%; Egypt win 19.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-1 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iran vs New Zealand Preview editionRecall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Iran win 55.0%; draw 26.0%; New Zealand win 19.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iranrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Iran Preview editionRecall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: Belgium win 65.0%; draw 21.0%; Iran win 14.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 2-1 Iran, Belgium 1-0 Irelevance 0.50