ERNIE 5.1 · New Zealand vs Belgium

New ZealandvsBelgium
Wenxin
ERNIE 5.1Baidu

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: ActionableInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionAway win76%Hit
BetDraw$850Reverse
Post-match result1-5
Net P&L-$850
PredictionConfidence: 76%
Away win

Belgium are strong favorites to beat New Zealand at BC Place Vancouver, with the market pricing them at 81% implied probability and all three analytical perspectives picking a Belgium win with confidences between 0.70 and 0.80. Belgium remain unbeaten in the tournament with two draws, while New Zealand arrive fully fit but in poor form having lost four of their last five matches including a heavy 1-3 defeat to Egypt that exposed defensive fragility. The key uncertainty is Belgium's squad availability: they carry three injury concerns including a suspended defender, Nathan Ngoy, who was sent off against Iran, which reduces their defensive options. However, New Zealand's recent defensive collapse against Egypt suggests Belgium should find enough chances to win, likely by a one or two-goal margin. A hypothesis for the match flow is that Belgium control possession early and break through New Zealand's vulnerable defense in the second half, though the suspension could leave them exposed to a late counterattack.

Bet
Draw$8503 bets
Net P&L-$850
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $400
    odds 7.99Settled: loss-$400

    Betting rationale：Football posture: draw-trap contrarian with tournament pattern recognition. Match script: Belgium have drawn both their World Cup games so far (0-0 Iran, 1-1 Egypt) despite being heavy favorites, and the model's best execution value is the draw at 7.990 with a slight edge (-0.005). New Zealand are dire but playing in Vancouver with nothing to lose, while Belgium's three injuries (Debast, Doku, Ngoy) could blunt their finishing. The draw pays nearly 8x and the model gives it 12% probability vs th

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,726.5

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $300
    odds 8.00Settled: loss-$300

    Betting rationale：Draw conviction with positive model edge. The model prices the draw at 18% but Pinnacle's execution odds of 8.00 imply only 12.5% — a +0.055 edge, the only positive-EV outcome in this market. Belgium at 1.190 carry -0.080 edge (model says 76% win, odds imply 84%). Already have $400 on draw; adding $300 builds a $700 draw position (~9% of bankroll) justified by the match script: Belgium's suspended defender leaves them vulnerable late, New Zealand are fully fit but in dreadful form (4 losses in 5

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,726.5

  • Correct score 0-2Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 0-2

    $150
    odds 7.50Settled: loss-$150

    Betting rationale：Football posture: targeted satellite with script conviction. Match script: Belgium's three injuries (including suspended defender) should limit their output despite likely possession dominance; New Zealand's defense is leaky (conceded 3 to Egypt, 4 to Haiti) but they're fully fit and at home. The model's top prediction is 0-2 at 18% probability, while Pinnacle prices it at 7.50 (13.3% implied) — a clear +4.7% edge. Already have $700 draw protection in place, so this is a precise correct-score sa

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,726.5

Post-match result1-5
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 3 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 6%Draw 18%Away win 76%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 3
  1. #10-2
  2. #21-2
  3. #30-1

Analysis brief

  • - The injury evidence shows Belgium have three questionable players including one defender who is actually suspended for the red card against Iran, which reduces their defensive depth and tactical flexibility; New Zealand have zero injuries and a fully available squad. However, the odds consensus still heavily favors Belgium at 81% implied probability, and Belgium's recent form (three wins and two draws in five matches) is far stronger than New Zealand's (one win, one draw, three losses). The inju
  • - The form contrast clearly favors Belgium: New Zealand's most recent competitive result was a decisive 1-3 defeat that exposed defensive fragility, whereas Belgium have drawn both their World Cup matches without losing, indicating steadier if not dominant momentum. The odds consensus of 81% implied probability for a Belgium win aligns with this form reading, though Belgium do carry a suspension (Nathan Ngoy red card vs Iran) and two questionable players (Debast, Doku), which slightly tempers conf
  • - The market odds distribution shows a decisive consensus that Belgium will win, with implied probability at 81% against only 6% for New Zealand, indicating a large gap rather than a contested matchup; Belgium's better recent competitive record (two wins and two draws in last four) supports the market view, though their availability issues with three questionable players and Ngoy's red-card suspension introduce some uncertainty, while New Zealand have no injury concerns but their form is weak with

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.68. Probability distribution: Belgium win 68.0%; draw 20.0%; Egypt win 12.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 3-
  • - Recall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.68. Probability distribution: Iran win 68.0%; draw 22.0%; New Zealand win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran
  • - Recall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.70. Probability distribution: Belgium win 70.0%; draw 20.0%; Iran win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-1 Iran, Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 1-1 I
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.09Log loss 0.27

Meta thinking

  • Squad availability riskBelgium has 3 observed injuries while New Zealand reports 0 injuries. Investigate how the injury count may affect Belgium's lineup depth and tactical options compared to a fully fit New Zealand squad, using the captured injury observation as the primary evidence axis.
  • Recent competitive form contrastNew Zealand's last competitive match was a 1-3 World Cup loss to Egypt, while Belgium's last two World Cup matches ended in draws (0-0 vs Iran, 1-1 vs Egypt). Compare the momentum and confidence signals from these most recent tournament results to assess form-based implications for this group stage fixture.
  • Market odds implied probability13 odds observations are captured for this match. Examine the odds distribution to identify what the market currently prices as the most likely outcome, and check whether the odds imply a significant gap or a closely contested matchup between New Zealand and Belgium.

Tokens: 2987

Perspectives

Squad availability riskAway winThe injury evidence shows Belgium have three questionable players including one defender who is actually suspended for the red card against Iran, which reduces their defensive depth and tactical flexibility; New Zealand have zero injuries and a fully available squad. However, the odds consensus still heavily favors Belgium at 81% implied probability, and Belgium's recent form (three wins and two draws in five matches) is far stronger than New Zealand's (one win, one draw, three losses). The inju70%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Squad availability risk

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: NZL vs BEL. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T03:00:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (3 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Belgium injuries/availability: Zeno Debast (DF, #5) status questionable; J. Doku (Midfielder, #11) status questionable; N. Ngoy (Defender, #25) status questionable.
    • Belgium discipline/suspensions: Nathan Ngoy is suspended for the subsequent match due to a red card (from 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z / Iran; no extra sanction inferred).

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 12, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T08:15:18Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 6.4%, draw 12.5%, side B win 81.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T04:02:19Z -> 2026-06-26T08:15:18Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.38pp, draw +0.18pp, side B win -0.55pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 12.5 / draw 7.1 / side B 1.18 → side A 11.5 / draw 8 / side B 1.17; william_hill side A 15 / draw 7 / side B 1.17 → side A 13 / draw 7 / side B 1.18; bet365 side A 17 / draw 8 / side B 1.14 → side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.17. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 11.5, draw 8, side B 1.17; william_hill: side A 13, draw 7, side B 1.18; bet365: side A 15, draw 7.5, side B 1.17; marathonbet: side A 17, draw 7.8, side B 1.19. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 23; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.06 / under 6.95.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-26T12:10:48Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 15.7°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 80%, wind 8.9 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  10. The injury evidence shows Belgium have three questionable players including one defender who is actually suspended for the red card against Iran, which reduces their defensive depth and tactical flexibility; New Zealand have zero injuries and a fully available squad. However, the odds consensus still heavily favors Belgium at 81% implied probability, and Belgium's recent form (three wins and two draws in five matches) is far stronger than New Zealand's (one win, one draw, three losses). The inju

Conclusion note

Belgium are strong 81% favorites despite carrying three injury concerns including a suspended defender (Nathan Ngoy), while New Zealand arrive fully fit but in poor recent form with only one win in their last five matches including a 1-3 World Cup loss to Egypt.

Recent competitive form contrastAway winThe form contrast clearly favors Belgium: New Zealand's most recent competitive result was a decisive 1-3 defeat that exposed defensive fragility, whereas Belgium have drawn both their World Cup matches without losing, indicating steadier if not dominant momentum. The odds consensus of 81% implied probability for a Belgium win aligns with this form reading, though Belgium do carry a suspension (Nathan Ngoy red card vs Iran) and two questionable players (Debast, Doku), which slightly tempers conf80%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent competitive form contrast

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: NZL vs BEL. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T03:00:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (3 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Belgium injuries/availability: Zeno Debast (DF, #5) status questionable; J. Doku (Midfielder, #11) status questionable; N. Ngoy (Defender, #25) status questionable.
    • Belgium discipline/suspensions: Nathan Ngoy is suspended for the subsequent match due to a red card (from 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z / Iran; no extra sanction inferred).

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 12, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T08:15:18Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 6.4%, draw 12.5%, side B win 81.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T04:02:19Z -> 2026-06-26T08:15:18Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.38pp, draw +0.18pp, side B win -0.55pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 12.5 / draw 7.1 / side B 1.18 → side A 11.5 / draw 8 / side B 1.17; william_hill side A 15 / draw 7 / side B 1.17 → side A 13 / draw 7 / side B 1.18; bet365 side A 17 / draw 8 / side B 1.14 → side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.17. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 11.5, draw 8, side B 1.17; william_hill: side A 13, draw 7, side B 1.18; bet365: side A 15, draw 7.5, side B 1.17; marathonbet: side A 17, draw 7.8, side B 1.19. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 23; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.06 / under 6.95.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-26T12:10:48Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 15.7°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 80%, wind 8.9 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  10. The form contrast clearly favors Belgium: New Zealand's most recent competitive result was a decisive 1-3 defeat that exposed defensive fragility, whereas Belgium have drawn both their World Cup matches without losing, indicating steadier if not dominant momentum. The odds consensus of 81% implied probability for a Belgium win aligns with this form reading, though Belgium do carry a suspension (Nathan Ngoy red card vs Iran) and two questionable players (Debast, Doku), which slightly tempers conf

Conclusion note

Belgium are strong 81% favorites to beat New Zealand at BC Place Vancouver, with their two World Cup draws (0-0 vs Iran, 1-1 vs Egypt) showing they remain unbeaten in the tournament, while New Zealand's last match was a heavy 1-3 loss to Egypt that signals poor defensive momentum and low confidence heading into this fixture.

Market odds implied probabilityAway winThe market odds distribution shows a decisive consensus that Belgium will win, with implied probability at 81% against only 6% for New Zealand, indicating a large gap rather than a contested matchup; Belgium's better recent competitive record (two wins and two draws in last four) supports the market view, though their availability issues with three questionable players and Ngoy's red-card suspension introduce some uncertainty, while New Zealand have no injury concerns but their form is weak with78%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds implied probability

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Fixture: NZL vs BEL. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-26T03:00:16Z); injuries observed with non-empty content (3 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Belgium injuries/availability: Zeno Debast (DF, #5) status questionable; J. Doku (Midfielder, #11) status questionable; N. Ngoy (Defender, #25) status questionable.
    • Belgium discipline/suspensions: Nathan Ngoy is suspended for the subsequent match due to a red card (from 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z / Iran; no extra sanction inferred).

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 12, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T08:15:18Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 6.4%, draw 12.5%, side B win 81.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-26T04:02:19Z -> 2026-06-26T08:15:18Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.38pp, draw +0.18pp, side B win -0.55pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 12.5 / draw 7.1 / side B 1.18 → side A 11.5 / draw 8 / side B 1.17; william_hill side A 15 / draw 7 / side B 1.17 → side A 13 / draw 7 / side B 1.18; bet365 side A 17 / draw 8 / side B 1.14 → side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.17. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 11.5, draw 8, side B 1.17; william_hill: side A 13, draw 7, side B 1.18; bet365: side A 15, draw 7.5, side B 1.17; marathonbet: side A 17, draw 7.8, side B 1.19. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 23; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.06 / under 6.95.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-26T12:10:48Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 15.7°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 80%, wind 8.9 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  10. The market odds distribution shows a decisive consensus that Belgium will win, with implied probability at 81% against only 6% for New Zealand, indicating a large gap rather than a contested matchup; Belgium's better recent competitive record (two wins and two draws in last four) supports the market view, though their availability issues with three questionable players and Ngoy's red-card suspension introduce some uncertainty, while New Zealand have no injury concerns but their form is weak with

Conclusion note

New Zealand face Belgium at BC Place Vancouver with the market heavily favoring Belgium at 81% implied probability versus just 6% for a New Zealand win and 12% for a draw, reflecting a significant gap in pricing; New Zealand's recent form is poor with four losses in their last five matches including a 1-3 defeat to Egypt, while Belgium have been more competitive with two draws and two wins in their last four competitive outings despite carrying injury concerns and a suspension for Nathan Ngoy.

Synthesis

Belgium are strong favorites to beat New Zealand at BC Place Vancouver, with the market pricing them at 81% implied probability and all three analytical perspectives picking a Belgium win with confidences between 0.70 and 0.80. Belgium remain unbeaten in the tournament with two draws, while New Zealand arrive fully fit but in poor form having lost four of their last five matches including a heavy 1-3 defeat to Egypt that exposed defensive fragility. The key uncertainty is Belgium's squad availability: they carry three injury concerns including a suspended defender, Nathan Ngoy, who was sent off against Iran, which reduces their defensive options. However, New Zealand's recent defensive collapse against Egypt suggests Belgium should find enough chances to win, likely by a one or two-goal margin. A hypothesis for the match flow is that Belgium control possession early and break through New Zealand's vulnerable defense in the second half, though the suspension could leave them exposed to a late counterattack.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives consistently predict a Belgium win, citing Belgium's unbeaten tournament record and New Zealand's poor recent form as decisive evidence. The market odds align with an 81% implied probability for Belgium, while the perspectives temper this slightly to around 76% confidence due to Belgium's injury concerns including Nathan Ngoy's red-card suspension and two other questionable players. New Zealand have no injury issues but their 1-3 loss to Egypt signals weak defensive moment

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Egypt Preview editionRecall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.68. Probability distribution: Belgium win 68.0%; draw 20.0%; Egypt win 12.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 3-relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iran vs New Zealand Preview editionRecall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.68. Probability distribution: Iran win 68.0%; draw 22.0%; New Zealand win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iranrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Iran Preview editionRecall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.70. Probability distribution: Belgium win 70.0%; draw 20.0%; Iran win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-1 Iran, Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 1-1 Irelevance 0.50