ERNIE 5.1 · New Zealand vs Belgium

New ZealandvsBelgium
Wenxin
ERNIE 5.1Baidu

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionAway win82%Hit
BetDraw$850Reverse
Post-match result1-5
Net P&L-$850
PredictionConfidence: 82%
Away win

Belgium are heavy favorites to beat New Zealand at BC Place Vancouver, with all three perspectives agreeing on a Belgium win at 72-88% confidence. The market prices Belgium at 82.1% implied probability, a figure that already accounts for three doubtful Belgian players (Debast, Doku, Ngoy) who are not confirmed absent, and Ngoy is actually suspended only for the next match. New Zealand's form is dire: just one win in ten matches including a 1-3 loss to Egypt and a 0-4 defeat to Haiti, while Belgium have four wins and four draws in their last ten and showed attacking potency with a 5-0 friendly win over Tunisia. The main uncertainty is Belgium's draw-heavy World Cup pattern so far, which keeps the draw probability at a non-trivial 12%, but the form gap is too wide to overturn. A likely scenario is Belgium controlling the game and converting chances in a 2-0 or 1-0 victory, though New Zealand could snatch a consolation goal given Belgium's tendency to see games stay tight.

Bet
Draw$8503 bets
Net P&L-$850
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $400
    odds 7.99Settled: loss-$400

    Betting rationale：Football posture: draw-trap contrarian with tournament pattern recognition. Match script: Belgium have drawn both their World Cup games so far (0-0 Iran, 1-1 Egypt) despite being heavy favorites, and the model's best execution value is the draw at 7.990 with a slight edge (-0.005). New Zealand are dire but playing in Vancouver with nothing to lose, while Belgium's three injuries (Debast, Doku, Ngoy) could blunt their finishing. The draw pays nearly 8x and the model gives it 12% probability vs th

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,726.5

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $300
    odds 8.00Settled: loss-$300

    Betting rationale：Draw conviction with positive model edge. The model prices the draw at 18% but Pinnacle's execution odds of 8.00 imply only 12.5% — a +0.055 edge, the only positive-EV outcome in this market. Belgium at 1.190 carry -0.080 edge (model says 76% win, odds imply 84%). Already have $400 on draw; adding $300 builds a $700 draw position (~9% of bankroll) justified by the match script: Belgium's suspended defender leaves them vulnerable late, New Zealand are fully fit but in dreadful form (4 losses in 5

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,726.5

  • Correct score 0-2Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 0-2

    $150
    odds 7.50Settled: loss-$150

    Betting rationale：Football posture: targeted satellite with script conviction. Match script: Belgium's three injuries (including suspended defender) should limit their output despite likely possession dominance; New Zealand's defense is leaky (conceded 3 to Egypt, 4 to Haiti) but they're fully fit and at home. The model's top prediction is 0-2 at 18% probability, while Pinnacle prices it at 7.50 (13.3% implied) — a clear +4.7% edge. Already have $700 draw protection in place, so this is a precise correct-score sa

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,726.5

Post-match result1-5
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 3 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 6%Draw 12%Away win 82%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 3
  1. #10-2
  2. #20-1
  3. #31-2

Analysis brief

  • - Belgium's three questionable players are all listed as doubtful rather than confirmed absent, and their squad depth as a top-tier nation should compensate against a New Zealand side that has lost four of their last five competitive matches. The 82% implied probability from 14 bookmakers already prices in the injury uncertainty, and Belgium's undefeated World Cup run (two draws) contrasts sharply with New Zealand's 1-3 defeat in their opener. The injury risk lowers confidence from the raw odds bu
  • - New Zealand's form trajectory is clearly negative (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses in last 5) with a heavy World Cup loss to Egypt, while Belgium's trajectory is stable and unbeaten (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses) though their World Cup matches have both ended in draws rather than wins; the odds market heavily prices Belgium at 82% and the form gap supports that, but Belgium's draw-heavy recent pattern and three questionable players including a red-card suspension for Ngoy introduce some uncertainty, making
  • - The market odds distribution correctly reflects the massive form gap: New Zealand have won only 1 of their last 10 matches while Belgium have lost just 2 of 10, and the implied probabilities (5.8% / 12.1% / 82.1%) align with this evidence with no clear mispricing; the slight odds drift toward Belgium (+0.12pp) is consistent with the injury news and form differential, and the home-schedule label for New Zealand at a neutral Canadian venue provides only a marginal counterweight that the market has

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.68. Probability distribution: Belgium win 68.0%; draw 20.0%; Egypt win 12.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 3-
  • - Recall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.68. Probability distribution: Iran win 68.0%; draw 22.0%; New Zealand win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran
  • - Recall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.70. Probability distribution: Belgium win 70.0%; draw 20.0%; Iran win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-1 Iran, Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 1-1 I
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.05Log loss 0.20

Meta thinking

  • Squad injury impactBelgium has 3 injuries observed as of snapshot time while New Zealand reports 0 injuries. Investigate how the absence of key Belgium players might affect their starting XI and tactical options, especially given that lineups are not yet captured and the injury count is the only visible squad risk signal.
  • Recent competitive form trajectoryNew Zealand's last 5 matches show 1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses including a 1-3 World Cup loss to Egypt and a 2-2 draw with Iran. Belgium's last 5 show 2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses including two World Cup draws (0-0 vs Iran, 1-1 vs Egypt) and a dominant 5-0 friendly win over Tunisia. Compare how each team's form entering this group stage decider may influence expectations.
  • Market odds implied probabilities13 odds observations are captured for this fixture. Examine the odds distribution to understand how the market is weighting the injury differential, form records, and home-schedule labeling for New Zealand versus Belgium, and whether the implied probabilities reveal any mispricing relative to the visible evidence.

Tokens: 3174

Perspectives

Squad injury impactAway winBelgium's three questionable players are all listed as doubtful rather than confirmed absent, and their squad depth as a top-tier nation should compensate against a New Zealand side that has lost four of their last five competitive matches. The 82% implied probability from 14 bookmakers already prices in the injury uncertainty, and Belgium's undefeated World Cup run (two draws) contrasts sharply with New Zealand's 1-3 defeat in their opener. The injury risk lowers confidence from the raw odds bu78%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Squad injury impact

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Fixture: NZL vs BEL. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (3 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Belgium injuries/availability: Zeno Debast (DF, #5) status questionable; J. Doku (Midfielder, #11) status questionable; N. Ngoy (Defender, #25) status questionable.
    • Belgium discipline/suspensions: Nathan Ngoy is suspended for the subsequent match due to a red card (from 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z / Iran; no extra sanction inferred).

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 5.8%, draw 12.1%, side B win 82.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z -> 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.05pp, draw -0.07pp, side B win +0.12pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 12.5 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.17 → side A 13 / draw 7.2 / side B 1.17; william_hill side A 17 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15 → side A 17 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15; bet365 side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.14 → side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.14. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 13, draw 7.2, side B 1.17; william_hill: side A 17, draw 7.5, side B 1.15; bet365: side A 15, draw 7.5, side B 1.14; marathonbet: side A 19.25, draw 8.1, side B 1.15. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 21; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.06 / under 6.95.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  10. Belgium's three questionable players are all listed as doubtful rather than confirmed absent, and their squad depth as a top-tier nation should compensate against a New Zealand side that has lost four of their last five competitive matches. The 82% implied probability from 14 bookmakers already prices in the injury uncertainty, and Belgium's undefeated World Cup run (two draws) contrasts sharply with New Zealand's 1-3 defeat in their opener. The injury risk lowers confidence from the raw odds bu

Conclusion note

Belgium are heavy 82% favorites to beat New Zealand at BC Place Vancouver despite three questionable players (defender Zeno Debast, midfielder J. Doku, and defender N. Ngoy), while New Zealand have zero injuries but poor recent form with only one win in their last ten matches including a 1-3 loss to Egypt. The odds have slightly shifted in Belgium's favor since the last update, suggesting the market views the injuries as manageable rather than decisive.

Recent competitive form trajectoryAway winNew Zealand's form trajectory is clearly negative (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses in last 5) with a heavy World Cup loss to Egypt, while Belgium's trajectory is stable and unbeaten (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses) though their World Cup matches have both ended in draws rather than wins; the odds market heavily prices Belgium at 82% and the form gap supports that, but Belgium's draw-heavy recent pattern and three questionable players including a red-card suspension for Ngoy introduce some uncertainty, making72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent competitive form trajectory

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Fixture: NZL vs BEL. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (3 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Belgium injuries/availability: Zeno Debast (DF, #5) status questionable; J. Doku (Midfielder, #11) status questionable; N. Ngoy (Defender, #25) status questionable.
    • Belgium discipline/suspensions: Nathan Ngoy is suspended for the subsequent match due to a red card (from 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z / Iran; no extra sanction inferred).

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 5.8%, draw 12.1%, side B win 82.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z -> 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.05pp, draw -0.07pp, side B win +0.12pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 12.5 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.17 → side A 13 / draw 7.2 / side B 1.17; william_hill side A 17 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15 → side A 17 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15; bet365 side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.14 → side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.14. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 13, draw 7.2, side B 1.17; william_hill: side A 17, draw 7.5, side B 1.15; bet365: side A 15, draw 7.5, side B 1.14; marathonbet: side A 19.25, draw 8.1, side B 1.15. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 21; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.06 / under 6.95.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  10. New Zealand's form trajectory is clearly negative (1 win, 1 draw, 3 losses in last 5) with a heavy World Cup loss to Egypt, while Belgium's trajectory is stable and unbeaten (2 wins, 3 draws, 0 losses) though their World Cup matches have both ended in draws rather than wins; the odds market heavily prices Belgium at 82% and the form gap supports that, but Belgium's draw-heavy recent pattern and three questionable players including a red-card suspension for Ngoy introduce some uncertainty, making

Conclusion note

Belgium are strong favorites at 82% implied probability against a New Zealand side that has lost 3 of its last 5 matches including a 1-3 World Cup defeat to Egypt, while Belgium remain unbeaten in 5 with 2 wins and 3 draws, though their World Cup results so far are both draws; New Zealand's only win in that span came against Chile, whereas Belgium's most recent competitive output includes a 5-0 friendly rout of Tunisia showing attacking potency despite questionable availability for Debast, Doku and the suspended Ngoy.

Market odds implied probabilitiesAway winThe market odds distribution correctly reflects the massive form gap: New Zealand have won only 1 of their last 10 matches while Belgium have lost just 2 of 10, and the implied probabilities (5.8% / 12.1% / 82.1%) align with this evidence with no clear mispricing; the slight odds drift toward Belgium (+0.12pp) is consistent with the injury news and form differential, and the home-schedule label for New Zealand at a neutral Canadian venue provides only a marginal counterweight that the market has88%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds implied probabilities

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Fixture: NZL vs BEL. Kickoff: 2026-06-27T03:00:00Z. Venue: BC Place Vancouver, Vancouver, altitude 15 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries observed with non-empty content (3 observed, non-empty observation time 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (13 observed); events not captured (not included at snapshot time); statistics not captured (not included at snapshot time); fixture players not captured (not included at snapshot time); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • New Zealand: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • New Zealand: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Belgium injuries/availability: Zeno Debast (DF, #5) status questionable; J. Doku (Midfielder, #11) status questionable; N. Ngoy (Defender, #25) status questionable.
    • Belgium discipline/suspensions: Nathan Ngoy is suspended for the subsequent match due to a red card (from 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z / Iran; no extra sanction inferred).

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 5.8%, draw 12.1%, side B win 82.1%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-25T20:02:21Z -> 2026-06-26T00:15:17Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.05pp, draw -0.07pp, side B win +0.12pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 12.5 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.17 → side A 13 / draw 7.2 / side B 1.17; william_hill side A 17 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15 → side A 17 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.15; bet365 side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.14 → side A 15 / draw 7.5 / side B 1.14. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 13, draw 7.2, side B 1.17; william_hill: side A 17, draw 7.5, side B 1.15; bet365: side A 15, draw 7.5, side B 1.14; marathonbet: side A 19.25, draw 8.1, side B 1.15. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.01 / under 21; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.06 / under 6.95.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for New Zealand:

    • 2026-06-22T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T20:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against England, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Haiti, home/away away, score 0-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-30T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Chile, home/away home, score 4-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T06:15:00Z, competition FIFA Series, against Finland, home/away home, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-19T01:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ecuador, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2025-11-16T00:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2025-10-09T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Poland, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-26T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Iran, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.

  10. The market odds distribution correctly reflects the massive form gap: New Zealand have won only 1 of their last 10 matches while Belgium have lost just 2 of 10, and the implied probabilities (5.8% / 12.1% / 82.1%) align with this evidence with no clear mispricing; the slight odds drift toward Belgium (+0.12pp) is consistent with the injury news and form differential, and the home-schedule label for New Zealand at a neutral Canadian venue provides only a marginal counterweight that the market has

Conclusion note

Belgium are priced at 82.1% implied probability by the market, heavily favored over New Zealand at 5.8%, with odds drifting slightly toward Belgium (+0.12pp) in the latest update; New Zealand's recent form shows just 1 win in 10 matches including a 1-3 loss to Egypt and 0-4 defeat to Haiti, while Belgium have 4 wins and 4 draws in their last 10, and although New Zealand carry the home schedule label at BC Place Vancouver, Belgium's three questionable players (Debast, Doku, Ngoy) do not include Ngoy who is only suspended for the subsequent match, leaving the injury impact minimal for this fixture.

Synthesis

Belgium are heavy favorites to beat New Zealand at BC Place Vancouver, with all three perspectives agreeing on a Belgium win at 72-88% confidence. The market prices Belgium at 82.1% implied probability, a figure that already accounts for three doubtful Belgian players (Debast, Doku, Ngoy) who are not confirmed absent, and Ngoy is actually suspended only for the next match. New Zealand's form is dire: just one win in ten matches including a 1-3 loss to Egypt and a 0-4 defeat to Haiti, while Belgium have four wins and four draws in their last ten and showed attacking potency with a 5-0 friendly win over Tunisia. The main uncertainty is Belgium's draw-heavy World Cup pattern so far, which keeps the draw probability at a non-trivial 12%, but the form gap is too wide to overturn. A likely scenario is Belgium controlling the game and converting chances in a 2-0 or 1-0 victory, though New Zealand could snatch a consolation goal given Belgium's tendency to see games stay tight.

Reasoning summary: All three analytical perspectives pick Belgium to win with confidence between 72% and 88%, and the market odds of 82.1% for Belgium align with the evidence. New Zealand have won only 1 of their last 10 matches with heavy defeats to Egypt and Haiti, while Belgium are unbeaten in their last 10 with 4 wins and 4 draws. Belgium's three questionable players are all doubtful rather than confirmed absent, and one is suspended only for the subsequent fixture, so injury impact is minimal. Recalled predic

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Egypt Preview editionRecall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.68. Probability distribution: Belgium win 68.0%; draw 20.0%; Egypt win 12.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 3-relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iran vs New Zealand Preview editionRecall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.68. Probability distribution: Iran win 68.0%; draw 22.0%; New Zealand win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iranrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Iran Preview editionRecall anchors: bel irn group_g_round_2. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.70. Probability distribution: Belgium win 70.0%; draw 20.0%; Iran win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-1 Iran, Belgium 2-0 Iran, Belgium 1-1 Irelevance 0.50