MiMo V2.5 Pro · Belgium vs Iran

BelgiumvsIran
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: PreviewInvestment source version: Actionable
PredictionHome win65%Miss
BetBet portfolio$245Bet portfolio
Post-match result0-0
Net P&L+$185.2
PredictionConfidence: 65%
Home win

Belgium are clear favorites based on bookmaker odds and recent form, but their draw against Egypt and Iran's draw with New Zealand introduce uncertainty. The decisive factor is Belgium's superior quality against a resilient Iran side, though the market's strong lean for Belgium is tempered by their inconsistent Nations League results.

Bet
Bet portfolio$2453 bets
Net P&L+$185.2
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $130
    odds 1.45Settled: loss-$130

    Betting rationale：Belgium are strong favorites (64% model probability) with attacking firepower (5-0 wins vs Tunisia, USA) against an Iran side showing defensive vulnerabilities (conceding 2 to New Zealand, lost to Nigeria). Already holding a $90 draw position, adding a moderate Belgium win hedge creates balanced coverage: the draw bet captures value if Iran's compact approach holds, while the Belgium bet backs the most likely outcome. Belgian quality in a must-win tournament context justifies 2% stake allocation

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,041.5

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $90
    odds 4.78Settled: win+$340.2

    Betting rationale：Belgium vs Iran - Draw trap position. Belgium showed vulnerability with a 1-1 draw against Egypt, and Iran's compact defensive structure can frustrate technically superior sides. Model gives 22% draw probability with +0.011 edge at Pinnacle's 4.78 execution price. World Cup group stage dynamics favor cautious play from underdogs, and Belgium's recent inconsistency (draws with Egypt, Mexico) supports this script. Small watchlist stake at ~1.5% bankroll on a live football angle with modest positiv

    Payout: $430.2 · Balance after: $6,041.5

  • Correct score 2-0Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 2-0

    $25
    odds 5.75Settled: loss-$25

    Betting rationale：Small satellite bet on Belgium 2-0, the model's top predicted score (15% probability). The match script favors a controlled Belgium win against a compact Iran defense. With existing $130 Belgium win and $90 draw hedge already in place, this correct-score position captures the most likely margin without overexposing the portfolio. At 5.750 odds, a modest $25 (~0.4% of balance) is a disciplined play on the expected game state.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,041.5

Post-match result0-0
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 65%Draw 22%Away win 13%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #12-0
  2. #22-1
  3. #31-0

Analysis brief

  • - The captured odds from 14 bookmaker samples show stable, strong market sentiment favoring Belgium at roughly 1.42-1.44 to win, translating to approximately 66.5% implied probability with no line movement over the visible update window. Iran's odds of 7.0-7.6 indicate the market sees them as clear underdogs at only 12.8% implied win probability. Belgium's mixed recent form—solid friendlies but a draw against Egypt and prior Nations League struggles—slightly tempers confidence below the raw market
  • - Belgium's recent form shows W3-D2-L0 in 2026 with quality wins over Croatia and USA and 14 goals scored, while Iran's 2026 record is W3-D1-L1 with victories against weaker opponents and a 2-2 draw against New Zealand in their World Cup opener. Both teams drew their opening World Cup matches, but Belgium's came against Egypt versus Iran's against New Zealand, and the bookmaker consensus at 66.5% for Belgium win aligns with this form gap, though the neutral venue and missing lineup data introduce

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.61. Probability distribution: Belgium win 61.5%; draw 22.5%; Egypt win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 2-1 Egypt, Belgium 1-
  • - Recall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Iran win 55.0%; draw 25.7%; New Zealand win 19.3%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 1.05Log loss 1.51

Meta thinking

  • Market Odds AnalysisExamine the captured odds data to assess market sentiment and implied probabilities for Belgium versus Iran in this group stage match.
  • Recent Form ComparisonAnalyze the visible recent match records for Belgium and Iran to evaluate current performance trends and consistency heading into the fixture.

Tokens: 2823

Perspectives

Market Odds AnalysisHome winThe captured odds from 14 bookmaker samples show stable, strong market sentiment favoring Belgium at roughly 1.42-1.44 to win, translating to approximately 66.5% implied probability with no line movement over the visible update window. Iran's odds of 7.0-7.6 indicate the market sees them as clear underdogs at only 12.8% implied win probability. Belgium's mixed recent form—solid friendlies but a draw against Egypt and prior Nations League struggles—slightly tempers confidence below the raw market67%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market Odds Analysis

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Fixture: BEL vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Belgium: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Belgium: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-20T16:15:26Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 66.5%, draw 20.8%, side B win 12.8%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-20T12:08:31Z -> 2026-06-20T16:15:26Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.4 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.4; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 7 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.42 / draw 4.75 / side B 7 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.75 / side B 7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.42, draw 4.35, side B 7.4; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4.33, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.42, draw 4.75, side B 7; marathonbet: side A 1.44, draw 4.65, side B 7.6. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 1.0 over 1.02 / under 8.7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.

  10. The captured odds from 14 bookmaker samples show stable, strong market sentiment favoring Belgium at roughly 1.42-1.44 to win, translating to approximately 66.5% implied probability with no line movement over the visible update window. Iran's odds of 7.0-7.6 indicate the market sees them as clear underdogs at only 12.8% implied win probability. Belgium's mixed recent form—solid friendlies but a draw against Egypt and prior Nations League struggles—slightly tempers confidence below the raw market

Conclusion note

Belgium are clear market favorites against Iran, with bookmaker consensus implying a 66.5% probability of a Belgium victory compared to just 12.8% for an Iran win, supported by odds around 1.42-1.44 for Belgium versus 7.0-7.6 for Iran across major bookmakers; however, Belgium's recent form shows inconsistency with a 1-1 draw against Egypt in their World Cup opener and several Nations League losses in late 2024, introducing some uncertainty despite the market's strong lean.

Recent Form ComparisonHome winBelgium's recent form shows W3-D2-L0 in 2026 with quality wins over Croatia and USA and 14 goals scored, while Iran's 2026 record is W3-D1-L1 with victories against weaker opponents and a 2-2 draw against New Zealand in their World Cup opener. Both teams drew their opening World Cup matches, but Belgium's came against Egypt versus Iran's against New Zealand, and the bookmaker consensus at 66.5% for Belgium win aligns with this form gap, though the neutral venue and missing lineup data introduce66%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Form Comparison

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Fixture: BEL vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Belgium: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Belgium: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-20T16:15:26Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 66.5%, draw 20.8%, side B win 12.8%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-20T12:08:31Z -> 2026-06-20T16:15:26Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.4 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.4; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 7 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.42 / draw 4.75 / side B 7 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.75 / side B 7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.42, draw 4.35, side B 7.4; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4.33, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.42, draw 4.75, side B 7; marathonbet: side A 1.44, draw 4.65, side B 7.6. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 1.0 over 1.02 / under 8.7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.

  10. Check recent form

    #9

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Recent form is not captured: not captured.

  11. Check recent form

    #10

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Recent form is not captured: not captured.

  12. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  13. Belgium's recent form shows W3-D2-L0 in 2026 with quality wins over Croatia and USA and 14 goals scored, while Iran's 2026 record is W3-D1-L1 with victories against weaker opponents and a 2-2 draw against New Zealand in their World Cup opener. Both teams drew their opening World Cup matches, but Belgium's came against Egypt versus Iran's against New Zealand, and the bookmaker consensus at 66.5% for Belgium win aligns with this form gap, though the neutral venue and missing lineup data introduce

Conclusion note

Belgium have recorded three wins and two draws in their last five 2026 matches, including strong victories over Croatia (2-0) and USA (5-2) while scoring 14 goals, whereas Iran's wins came against lower-ranked Mali, Gambia, and Costa Rica and they drew their World Cup opener 2-2 with New Zealand, indicating Belgium hold a clear form advantage heading into this fixture.

Synthesis

Belgium are clear favorites based on bookmaker odds and recent form, but their draw against Egypt and Iran's draw with New Zealand introduce uncertainty. The decisive factor is Belgium's superior quality against a resilient Iran side, though the market's strong lean for Belgium is tempered by their inconsistent Nations League results.

Reasoning summary: Both market odds and recent form analysis favor Belgium to win, with implied probabilities around 65-67%. Iran's wins have come against weaker opposition, and both teams drew their World Cup openers. The evidence points to a Belgium victory, but the draw possibility is non-negligible given the tournament context.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Egypt Preview editionRecall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.61. Probability distribution: Belgium win 61.5%; draw 22.5%; Egypt win 16.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 2-1 Egypt, Belgium 1-relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iran vs New Zealand Preview editionRecall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Iran win 55.0%; draw 25.7%; New Zealand win 19.3%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iranrelevance 0.50