Kimi K2.6 · Belgium vs Iran

BelgiumvsIran
MoonshotAI
Kimi K2.6Moonshot

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Actionable
PredictionHome win66%Miss
BetHome win$620Aligned
Post-match result0-0
Net P&L-$620
PredictionConfidence: 66%
Home win

Belgium are favored to defeat Iran based on a strong consensus across betting markets and superior squad depth demonstrated in pre-tournament friendlies. The implied win probability of approximately 66 percent reflects broad agreement among bookmakers with minimal price variance, suggesting the market sees a meaningful quality gap. Both teams dropped points in their opening World Cup matches—Belgium drew 1-1 with Egypt while Iran drew 2-2 with New Zealand—but Belgium's result came against higher-rated opposition and their friendlies included convincing wins over Tunisia and Croatia. Iran's form has been built largely against weaker sides, and while their ability to score raises some uncertainty against higher-tier opposition, the overall evidence points clearly to a Belgium victory. Confidence is moderated slightly by the lack of head-to-head history and Iran's scoring consistency.

Bet
Home win$6203 bets
Net P&L-$620
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $280
    odds 1.45Settled: loss-$280

    Betting rationale：Posture: favorite conviction with a modest add-on to an existing position. Match script: Belgium need three points after dropping two against Egypt; Iran conceded twice to New Zealand and will face superior individual quality tonight in LA. The model gives Belgium a 66% win probability, and while the execution edge is slightly negative at Pinnacle, the best-market edge is only -0.007—essentially fair value for a strong favorite in a must-win group game. The existing $170 at 1.43 shows prior conf

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,055.2

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $170
    odds 1.43Settled: loss-$170

    Betting rationale：Cold value posture with favorite conviction. Belgium are clear favourites per the model (67% win probability) and market consensus, priced at 1.430 by Pinnacle. The model edge vs execution is slightly negative (-0.029), but the best market edge is essentially flat (+0.003 at 1.500), meaning the execution price is fair and there's no meaningful negative edge. Belgium's recent form is strong—5-0 vs Tunisia, 2-0 away at Croatia, 5-2 away vs USA—while Iran drew their World Cup opener against New Zea

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,055.2

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Home win

    $170
    odds 1.45Settled: loss-$170

    Betting rationale：Belgium are strong favorites with a 66% model win probability and clean injury slate, while Iran's elite-level away record is unproven. I already hold two open Belgium-win positions at 1.43 and 1.45, so this is an adjustment slice. The Pinnacle execution price for Belgium is 1.45, which sits right at fair value with only a slight negative edge (-0.030) versus the model. Rather than chase the tiny value on draw or Iran, I prefer to add conviction to the favorite at a playable price. Belgium's rec

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $6,055.2

Post-match result0-0
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 66%Draw 21%Away win 13%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - The decisive factor is the strong consensus across 14 bookmaker samples pricing Belgium at roughly 1.42 to 1.47, translating to a two-in-three implied win probability, while Iran are priced around 7.0 to 8.0. There is little variance across providers, indicating broad agreement rather than market uncertainty. Belgium's recent results are mixed, including a draw against Egypt in their World Cup opener, but Iran's draw with New Zealand and lower-tier opposition in friendlies do not appear to shift
  • - The odds consensus clearly favors Belgium, and while both teams drew their first group game, Belgium's draw came against a higher-rated opponent in Egypt and their recent friendlies featured more dominant performances against competitive sides. Iran's 2-2 draw with New Zealand and their generally lower-level friendly opposition suggest they are less likely to upset Belgium. The absence of injuries or suspensions for either side means the prediction rests on quality and form, both of which point
  • - Belgium's mixed but generally potent scoring pattern in recent matches, combined with the clear odds consensus and home scheduling, outweighs Iran's friendlies-driven form and the absence of any disciplinary or injury issues on either side. The lack of head-to-head records and Iran's ability to find the net lower the confidence slightly, but the most defensible outcome remains a Belgium win.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.59. Probability distribution: Belgium win 59.0%; draw 24.0%; Egypt win 17.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 2-
  • - Recall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.52. Probability distribution: Iran win 52.0%; draw 26.0%; New Zealand win 22.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 1.08Log loss 1.56

Meta thinking

  • Market odds and implied probabilitiesExamine the 14 captured pre-match odds to see how bookmakers weight Belgium's home-listed status against Iran's recent results, and whether any significant variance exists across providers.
  • Recent competitive form under tournament pressureCompare Belgium's 1-1 World Cup group stage draw with Egypt against Iran's 2-2 World Cup group stage draw with New Zealand to assess how each side performed under actual tournament conditions versus friendly fixtures.
  • Goal production and defensive stability in recent matchesEvaluate Belgium's mixed scoring pattern (5-0 win, 2-0 win, 1-1 draw, 5-2 win) against Iran's consistent scoring (2-2, 2-0, 3-1, 5-0, 1-2) to examine attacking output and defensive vulnerability trends in visible results.

Tokens: 1888

Perspectives

Market odds and implied probabilitiesHome winThe decisive factor is the strong consensus across 14 bookmaker samples pricing Belgium at roughly 1.42 to 1.47, translating to a two-in-three implied win probability, while Iran are priced around 7.0 to 8.0. There is little variance across providers, indicating broad agreement rather than market uncertainty. Belgium's recent results are mixed, including a draw against Egypt in their World Cup opener, but Iran's draw with New Zealand and lower-tier opposition in friendlies do not appear to shift72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds and implied probabilities

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Fixture: BEL vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T19:12:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Belgium: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Belgium: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-21T08:07:20Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 66.1%, draw 20.9%, side B win 12.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-21T06:00:28Z -> 2026-06-21T08:07:20Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.11pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0.1pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.42 / draw 4.4 / side B 7.2 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.4 / side B 7.2; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 7 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.42 / draw 4.5 / side B 8 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.5 / side B 7.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.42, draw 4.4, side B 7.2; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4.33, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.42, draw 4.5, side B 7.5; marathonbet: side A 1.47, draw 4.65, side B 7.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 12; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 9.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-21T12:10:49Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 22°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 65%, wind 14.4 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.

  10. The decisive factor is the strong consensus across 14 bookmaker samples pricing Belgium at roughly 1.42 to 1.47, translating to a two-in-three implied win probability, while Iran are priced around 7.0 to 8.0. There is little variance across providers, indicating broad agreement rather than market uncertainty. Belgium's recent results are mixed, including a draw against Egypt in their World Cup opener, but Iran's draw with New Zealand and lower-tier opposition in friendlies do not appear to shift

Conclusion note

Belgium are clear favorites according to the captured pre-match odds, with consensus implied probability giving them a 66.1 percent chance of victory against Iran's 12.9 percent, and the market shows only minimal movement between the latest two update points. Iran have shown respectable recent form with wins over Mali, Gambia and Costa Rica, but Belgium's home-listed status and the tight clustering of bookmaker prices around a side A win suggest the market sees a meaningful quality gap.

Recent competitive form under tournament pressureHome winThe odds consensus clearly favors Belgium, and while both teams drew their first group game, Belgium's draw came against a higher-rated opponent in Egypt and their recent friendlies featured more dominant performances against competitive sides. Iran's 2-2 draw with New Zealand and their generally lower-level friendly opposition suggest they are less likely to upset Belgium. The absence of injuries or suspensions for either side means the prediction rests on quality and form, both of which point66%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent competitive form under tournament pressure

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Fixture: BEL vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T19:12:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Belgium: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Belgium: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-21T08:07:20Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 66.1%, draw 20.9%, side B win 12.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-21T06:00:28Z -> 2026-06-21T08:07:20Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.11pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0.1pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.42 / draw 4.4 / side B 7.2 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.4 / side B 7.2; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 7 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.42 / draw 4.5 / side B 8 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.5 / side B 7.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.42, draw 4.4, side B 7.2; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4.33, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.42, draw 4.5, side B 7.5; marathonbet: side A 1.47, draw 4.65, side B 7.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 12; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 9.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-21T12:10:49Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 22°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 65%, wind 14.4 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.

  10. The odds consensus clearly favors Belgium, and while both teams drew their first group game, Belgium's draw came against a higher-rated opponent in Egypt and their recent friendlies featured more dominant performances against competitive sides. Iran's 2-2 draw with New Zealand and their generally lower-level friendly opposition suggest they are less likely to upset Belgium. The absence of injuries or suspensions for either side means the prediction rests on quality and form, both of which point

Conclusion note

Belgium are priced as strong favorites with a consensus implied win probability around 66 percent, reflecting stronger squad depth and pedigree. Iran held New Zealand to a 2-2 draw in their opening World Cup match, while Belgium were held 1-1 by Egypt, so both sides dropped points under tournament pressure; however, Belgium's pre-tournament friendlies included convincing wins over Tunisia and Croatia, whereas Iran's results came against weaker opposition.

Goal production and defensive stability in recent matchesHome winBelgium's mixed but generally potent scoring pattern in recent matches, combined with the clear odds consensus and home scheduling, outweighs Iran's friendlies-driven form and the absence of any disciplinary or injury issues on either side. The lack of head-to-head records and Iran's ability to find the net lower the confidence slightly, but the most defensible outcome remains a Belgium win.72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Goal production and defensive stability in recent matches

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Fixture: BEL vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T19:12:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T12:10:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Belgium: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Belgium: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-21T08:07:20Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 66.1%, draw 20.9%, side B win 12.9%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-21T06:00:28Z -> 2026-06-21T08:07:20Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.11pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0.1pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.42 / draw 4.4 / side B 7.2 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.4 / side B 7.2; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 7 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.42 / draw 4.5 / side B 8 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.5 / side B 7.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.42, draw 4.4, side B 7.2; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4.33, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.42, draw 4.5, side B 7.5; marathonbet: side A 1.47, draw 4.65, side B 7.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 12; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 9.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-21T12:10:49Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 22°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 65%, wind 14.4 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T12:15:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.

  10. Belgium's mixed but generally potent scoring pattern in recent matches, combined with the clear odds consensus and home scheduling, outweighs Iran's friendlies-driven form and the absence of any disciplinary or injury issues on either side. The lack of head-to-head records and Iran's ability to find the net lower the confidence slightly, but the most defensible outcome remains a Belgium win.

Conclusion note

Belgium are favored by the consensus odds with a 66.1 percent implied win probability, and their recent results include heavy wins over Tunisia and the USA that show strong attacking output. Iran have been consistent scorers in friendlies, but their 2-2 draw with New Zealand and the lack of head-to-head history leave some uncertainty against higher-tier opposition.

Synthesis

Belgium are favored to defeat Iran based on a strong consensus across betting markets and superior squad depth demonstrated in pre-tournament friendlies. The implied win probability of approximately 66 percent reflects broad agreement among bookmakers with minimal price variance, suggesting the market sees a meaningful quality gap. Both teams dropped points in their opening World Cup matches—Belgium drew 1-1 with Egypt while Iran drew 2-2 with New Zealand—but Belgium's result came against higher-rated opposition and their friendlies included convincing wins over Tunisia and Croatia. Iran's form has been built largely against weaker sides, and while their ability to score raises some uncertainty against higher-tier opposition, the overall evidence points clearly to a Belgium victory. Confidence is moderated slightly by the lack of head-to-head history and Iran's scoring consistency.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives converge on a Belgium win with confidence around 0.66-0.72, driven by consensus market odds pricing Belgium at roughly 1.42-1.47, superior results against competitive opposition in friendlies, and greater squad depth. Iran's respectable scoring in friendlies and their 2-2 draw with New Zealand introduce modest uncertainty, but do not overcome the structural quality gap reflected in stable, tight bookmaker pricing. The recalled memory of Belgium's pre-match prediction again

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Egypt Preview editionRecall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.59. Probability distribution: Belgium win 59.0%; draw 24.0%; Egypt win 17.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 2-relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iran vs New Zealand Preview editionRecall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.52. Probability distribution: Iran win 52.0%; draw 26.0%; New Zealand win 22.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iranrelevance 0.50