GLM-5.1 · Belgium vs Iran

BelgiumvsIran
Z.ai
GLM-5.1Zhipu AI

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Late
PredictionHome win60%Miss
BetBet portfolio$310Reverse
Post-match result0-0
Net P&L+$789.2
PredictionConfidence: 60%
Home win

Belgium are favoured to beat Iran based on a clear squad-quality gap reflected in unanimous bookmaker consensus at roughly 67% implied win probability, but confidence is moderated by Belgium's worrying competitive record—zero wins in five competitive matches including Nations League losses and a World Cup draw against Egypt—and by unconfirmed lineups that prevent tactical matchup assessment. Iran's own competitive form is also unconvincing, with draws against New Zealand and Tajikistan, and their recent wins came against lower-ranked opposition, which limits their credibility as an upset threat. The most probable single scoreline is Belgium 2-1 Iran, reflecting a quality-driven win with a modest margin consistent with Belgium's competitive vulnerabilities, though a narrow 1-0 or a 1-1 draw remain plausible given the form concerns on both sides.

Bet
Bet portfolio$3103 bets
Net P&L+$789.2
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: LateReverse

    Draw

    $150
    odds 4.80Settled: win+$570

    Betting rationale：Draw-trap protection, adding to existing $80 draw position. Belgium's competitive record is alarming—zero wins in five competitive matches including a WC draw vs Egypt—while Iran are compact and disciplined enough to frustrate a favoured side struggling to convert pressure into results. Model edge on draw is +0.032 at execution price 4.800, thin but directionally aligned with the match script. Combined draw exposure ($230 total) reflects moderate conviction that Belgium's quality gap may not tra

    Payout: $720 · Balance after: $8,552.5

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Away win

    $80
    odds 7.70Settled: loss-$80

    Betting rationale：Upset/chaos shot posture: Belgium are the clear quality favorite, but the market has fully priced that in at 1.430 execution odds, giving a negative model edge of -0.049. Iran at 7.700 is the only 1X2 side with positive model edge (+0.010) and extreme payout asymmetry. Both teams drew their group openers and will push for goals, raising chaos potential — Iran scored twice against New Zealand and have decent recent friendly wins. A World Cup desperation match between unequal sides can produce sur

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $7,453.3

  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $80
    odds 4.74Settled: win+$299.2

    Betting rationale：Already holding $80 on Iran at 7.700 as an upset shot, adding a draw hedge to create a complementary portfolio covering both Iran win and draw outcomes. Both teams drew openers — Belgium vs Egypt, Iran vs New Zealand — so draw incentive is real in match-two group dynamics. Draw at 4.740 has the best execution edge (+0.019) and a plausible script where Iran's compact shape frustrates Belgium. If Belgium wins both positions lose (~$160, ~2% of bankroll); if Iran wins or draws, at least one pays. H

    Payout: $379.2 · Balance after: $7,832.5

Post-match result0-0
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 60%Draw 24%Away win 16%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #12-1
  2. #21-0
  3. #31-1

Analysis brief

  • - All 14 odds samples converge on Belgium as the clear favourite with approximately 66.8% implied win probability and zero movement between update points, indicating a stable and unified market view. The implied probability gap between Belgium win and the next most likely outcome (draw at 20.9%) is large, and no bookmaker divergence is visible to suggest the market is uncertain about the direction. Under this odds-only lens, Belgium winning is the most probable outcome, though the 20.9% draw proba
  • - The perspective focus on competitive-versus-friendly form reveals a significant gap for Belgium: zero wins in five competitive matches (Nations League losses to France, Italy and Israel; World Cup draw vs Egypt) versus three wins and a draw in recent friendlies. Iran's competitive form is also unconvincing—a World Cup draw vs New Zealand and a CAFA draw vs Tajikistan—without a notable competitive upswing. Bookmaker consensus assigns Belgium roughly 67% win probability, reflecting overall squad q
  • - The odds consensus assigns Belgium approximately 66.8% implied win probability, reflecting a clear quality advantage over Iran, whose recent wins were against weaker opposition. No injuries or suspensions are reported for either team, so full squads should be available, but lineups have not been confirmed as of the last check, introducing significant personnel-based variance that prevents evaluating specific tactical configurations. This information gap tempers confidence in what would otherwise

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.56. Probability distribution: Belgium win 56.0%; draw 25.0%; Egypt win 19.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-1 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-
  • - Recall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Iran win 55.0%; draw 26.0%; New Zealand win 19.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.96Log loss 1.43

Meta thinking

  • market odds implied probabilityExamine the 14 captured odds observations to determine the implied win-draw-loss probability distribution and detect any consistent directional skew or divergence across bookmakers, without assuming which side the market favors.
  • recent competitive form comparisonCompare Belgium's and Iran's visible recent results, weighting World Cup group-stage draws (Belgium 1-1 Egypt, Iran 2-2 New Zealand) alongside friendly performances, to assess whether competitive match output differs meaningfully from friendly results for either side.
  • lineup uncertainty and squad riskEvaluate the effect of lineups still being unconfirmed (last checked 2026-06-20, no rows returned) despite zero reported injuries for both sides, considering how this information gap introduces variance into any tactical or personnel-based assessment.

Tokens: 2636

Perspectives

market odds implied probabilityHome winAll 14 odds samples converge on Belgium as the clear favourite with approximately 66.8% implied win probability and zero movement between update points, indicating a stable and unified market view. The implied probability gap between Belgium win and the next most likely outcome (draw at 20.9%) is large, and no bookmaker divergence is visible to suggest the market is uncertain about the direction. Under this odds-only lens, Belgium winning is the most probable outcome, though the 20.9% draw proba67%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market odds implied probability

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Fixture: BEL vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T19:12:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T13:00:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Belgium: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Belgium: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-21T16:03:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 66.8%, draw 20.9%, side B win 12.3%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-21T12:06:28Z -> 2026-06-21T16:03:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.25 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.25; william_hill side A 1.4 / draw 4.33 / side B 7 → side A 1.4 / draw 4.33 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.4 / draw 4.5 / side B 8 → side A 1.4 / draw 4.5 / side B 8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.42, draw 4.35, side B 7.25; william_hill: side A 1.4, draw 4.33, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.4, draw 4.5, side B 8; marathonbet: side A 1.45, draw 4.7, side B 8.1. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; correct scores 0-0 9.5, 0-1 15, 0-2 34; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 11, 0-1 17, 0-2 36; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 21, 0-2 41.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-21T16:00:30Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 23.2°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 60%, wind 13.4 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.

  10. All 14 odds samples converge on Belgium as the clear favourite with approximately 66.8% implied win probability and zero movement between update points, indicating a stable and unified market view. The implied probability gap between Belgium win and the next most likely outcome (draw at 20.9%) is large, and no bookmaker divergence is visible to suggest the market is uncertain about the direction. Under this odds-only lens, Belgium winning is the most probable outcome, though the 20.9% draw proba

Conclusion note

The 14 captured bookmaker observations show a uniform and strong consensus favoring Belgium at 66.8% implied win probability, with draw at 20.9% and Iran at 12.3%, and no detectable directional skew or divergence across major bookmakers such as bet365, William Hill, 10bet and Marathonbet, all pricing Belgium around 1.40–1.45.

recent competitive form comparisonHome winThe perspective focus on competitive-versus-friendly form reveals a significant gap for Belgium: zero wins in five competitive matches (Nations League losses to France, Italy and Israel; World Cup draw vs Egypt) versus three wins and a draw in recent friendlies. Iran's competitive form is also unconvincing—a World Cup draw vs New Zealand and a CAFA draw vs Tajikistan—without a notable competitive upswing. Bookmaker consensus assigns Belgium roughly 67% win probability, reflecting overall squad q58%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    recent competitive form comparison

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Fixture: BEL vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T19:12:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T13:00:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Belgium: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Belgium: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-21T16:03:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 66.8%, draw 20.9%, side B win 12.3%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-21T12:06:28Z -> 2026-06-21T16:03:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.25 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.25; william_hill side A 1.4 / draw 4.33 / side B 7 → side A 1.4 / draw 4.33 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.4 / draw 4.5 / side B 8 → side A 1.4 / draw 4.5 / side B 8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.42, draw 4.35, side B 7.25; william_hill: side A 1.4, draw 4.33, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.4, draw 4.5, side B 8; marathonbet: side A 1.45, draw 4.7, side B 8.1. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; correct scores 0-0 9.5, 0-1 15, 0-2 34; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 11, 0-1 17, 0-2 36; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 21, 0-2 41.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-21T16:00:30Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 23.2°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 60%, wind 13.4 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.

  10. The perspective focus on competitive-versus-friendly form reveals a significant gap for Belgium: zero wins in five competitive matches (Nations League losses to France, Italy and Israel; World Cup draw vs Egypt) versus three wins and a draw in recent friendlies. Iran's competitive form is also unconvincing—a World Cup draw vs New Zealand and a CAFA draw vs Tajikistan—without a notable competitive upswing. Bookmaker consensus assigns Belgium roughly 67% win probability, reflecting overall squad q

Conclusion note

Belgium are favored by bookmaker consensus at 66.8% implied probability, but their competitive form raises concerns: five competitive matches (four UEFA Nations League losses and a World Cup draw vs Egypt) produced zero wins, contrasting sharply with dominant friendly results like 5-0 vs Tunisia. Iran also drew their World Cup opener 2-2 vs New Zealand and have mixed competitive outputs, so neither side demonstrates strong competitive-match superiority, yet Belgium's overall quality edge justifies a lean toward their win at reduced confidence.

lineup uncertainty and squad riskHome winThe odds consensus assigns Belgium approximately 66.8% implied win probability, reflecting a clear quality advantage over Iran, whose recent wins were against weaker opposition. No injuries or suspensions are reported for either team, so full squads should be available, but lineups have not been confirmed as of the last check, introducing significant personnel-based variance that prevents evaluating specific tactical configurations. This information gap tempers confidence in what would otherwise60%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    lineup uncertainty and squad risk

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Fixture: BEL vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T19:12:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T13:00:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Belgium: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Belgium: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-21T16:03:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 66.8%, draw 20.9%, side B win 12.3%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-21T12:06:28Z -> 2026-06-21T16:03:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.25 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.25; william_hill side A 1.4 / draw 4.33 / side B 7 → side A 1.4 / draw 4.33 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.4 / draw 4.5 / side B 8 → side A 1.4 / draw 4.5 / side B 8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.42, draw 4.35, side B 7.25; william_hill: side A 1.4, draw 4.33, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.4, draw 4.5, side B 8; marathonbet: side A 1.45, draw 4.7, side B 8.1. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; correct scores 0-0 9.5, 0-1 15, 0-2 34; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 11, 0-1 17, 0-2 36; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 21, 0-2 41.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-21T16:00:30Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 23.2°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 60%, wind 13.4 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.

  10. The odds consensus assigns Belgium approximately 66.8% implied win probability, reflecting a clear quality advantage over Iran, whose recent wins were against weaker opposition. No injuries or suspensions are reported for either team, so full squads should be available, but lineups have not been confirmed as of the last check, introducing significant personnel-based variance that prevents evaluating specific tactical configurations. This information gap tempers confidence in what would otherwise

Conclusion note

Belgium are strongly favoured by the bookmaker consensus at around 66.8%, with zero reported injuries for either side and no suspensions, but lineups remain unconfirmed as of the last check on June 20, which adds personnel variance and prevents any tactical matchup assessment; this information gap reduces certainty even though the underlying quality gap between Belgium and Iran is clear. Iran's recent results look strong on paper but largely come against lower-ranked opposition, while Belgium's mixed Nations League run was offset by emphatic friendly wins over Tunisia, Croatia and the USA.

Synthesis

Belgium are favoured to beat Iran based on a clear squad-quality gap reflected in unanimous bookmaker consensus at roughly 67% implied win probability, but confidence is moderated by Belgium's worrying competitive record—zero wins in five competitive matches including Nations League losses and a World Cup draw against Egypt—and by unconfirmed lineups that prevent tactical matchup assessment. Iran's own competitive form is also unconvincing, with draws against New Zealand and Tajikistan, and their recent wins came against lower-ranked opposition, which limits their credibility as an upset threat. The most probable single scoreline is Belgium 2-1 Iran, reflecting a quality-driven win with a modest margin consistent with Belgium's competitive vulnerabilities, though a narrow 1-0 or a 1-1 draw remain plausible given the form concerns on both sides.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives converge on Belgium as the likely winner, driven by a stable and unified market consensus around 66.8% implied win probability and a clear overall quality advantage over Iran, whose recent strong results came against weaker opposition. However, Belgium's competitive form is a significant concern: zero wins in five competitive matches contrast with dominant friendly results, and unconfirmed lineups as of June 20 add personnel variance that prevents tactical evaluation. Iran

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Egypt Preview editionRecall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.56. Probability distribution: Belgium win 56.0%; draw 25.0%; Egypt win 19.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-1 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iran vs New Zealand Preview editionRecall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.55. Probability distribution: Iran win 55.0%; draw 26.0%; New Zealand win 19.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iranrelevance 0.50