ERNIE 5.1 · Belgium vs Iran

BelgiumvsIran
Wenxin
ERNIE 5.1Baidu

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Actionable
PredictionHome win68%Miss
BetHome win$700Aligned
Post-match result0-0
Net P&L-$700
PredictionConfidence: 68%
Home win

Belgium and Iran both drew their opening World Cup matches, but Belgium enter as strong favorites with an unbeaten five-match run and a tighter defense (4 goals conceded versus Iran's 5), while both teams have scored 13 goals over their recent form. The market consensus of 66.8% for a Belgium win is reinforced by all three analytical perspectives, yet Iran's 2-2 draw with New Zealand and 5-0 friendly victory show they can compete, which keeps the draw and upset probabilities meaningful rather than negligible. A plausible scenario is Belgium dominating possession and breaking through Iran's organized defense in the second half, though this remains a hypothesis given Iran's proven attacking threat.

Bet
Home win$7003 bets
Net P&L-$700
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Home win

    $350
    odds 1.45Settled: loss-$350

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction posture. Already have $200 on Belgium at 1.430; Pinnacle execution at 1.450 is marginally better price. Model says 68% Belgium win — the story is clear: Belgium's quality should dominate Iran, who drew their opener 2-2 and lack the depth to absorb sustained pressure. The -0.010 edge is thin but the match script (clear weather, no injuries, Belgium's 3W2D form vs Iran's shaky trajectory) justifies a normal-conviction add-on. $350 is ~3.4% of bankroll — a disciplined favorite s

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,444.3

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $200
    odds 1.43Settled: loss-$200

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction posture. Belgium drew their World Cup opener and now face an Iran side that conceded twice to New Zealand and lost to Nigeria recently. The model gives Belgium 70% win probability vs market ~70% at Pinnacle 1.430 — essentially fair odds with a razor-thin +0.001 edge. But the match script is alive: Belgium's 5-0 and 5-2 friendlies show quality, group-stage pressure demands a response after the Egypt stutter, and Iran's defense looks vulnerable. A 2-1 scoreline (18% model proba

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,444.3

  • Correct score 2-0Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 2-0

    $150
    odds 5.75Settled: loss-$150

    Betting rationale：Football posture: passionate belief with satellite exact-score expression. Match script: Belgium need to bounce back from their opening draw against Egypt; Iran showed they can compete (2-2 with New Zealand) but their defense leaked 5 goals in recent form vs Belgium's 4. Belgium's 13 goals in 5 matches suggests they'll break through Iran's organized low block, likely in the second half. The 2-0 scoreline (model 15.0%, market ~17.4%) best captures my script of Belgian dominance and a clean sheet.

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $9,444.3

Post-match result0-0
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 68%Draw 20%Away win 12%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #31-1

Analysis brief

  • - Belgium's unbeaten streak (3 wins, 2 draws) and tighter defense (4 goals conceded vs Iran's 5) give them a clear edge despite both teams showing identical 13-goal attacking output over their last 5 matches; the 66.8% market probability and Iran's one recent loss further tilt the balance toward a Belgium victory, though Iran's 5-0 friendly win over Costa Rica shows they can also score freely, keeping confidence from reaching the maximum.
  • - The market consensus of 66.8% for Belgium versus 12.3% for Iran is well-supported by Belgium's unbeaten run in their last five matches (3 wins, 2 draws) including a dominant 5-0 friendly win, compared to Iran's mixed last five (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) with a 2-2 World Cup opener; odds have been completely flat across all bookmakers from 12:06 to 16:03, confirming the market has fully priced Belgium's home-schedule advantage and form while giving Iran only a slim chance despite their recent compe
  • - With injury risk eliminated as a factor for both teams, the analysis shifts to market signals and form: the odds consensus gives Belgium a 66.8% chance of winning with no movement, reflecting strong bookmaker confidence, and Belgium's recent results (including a 5-0 friendly win and a 2-0 away win vs Croatia) are stronger than Iran's, though Iran's 2-2 draw with New Zealand shows they can compete; without head-to-head data, the market and form edge point to a Belgium win but with meaningful unce

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.68. Probability distribution: Belgium win 68.0%; draw 20.0%; Egypt win 12.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 3-
  • - Recall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.68. Probability distribution: Iran win 68.0%; draw 22.0%; New Zealand win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 1.12Log loss 1.61

Meta thinking

  • Recent form and goal outputCompare Belgium's unbeaten 5-match run (3 wins, 2 draws, 13 goals scored, 4 conceded) against Iran's 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss record (13 goals scored, 5 conceded), noting both teams drew their opening World Cup match and have shown strong attacking output in recent friendlies and group play.
  • Market odds implied expectationsExamine the 14 captured odds to determine market-implied win probabilities for each side, assessing whether the market prices in Belgium's unbeaten streak and home-schedule label or whether Iran's competitive recent results and opening-match draw have narrowed the perceived gap.
  • Squad fitness and availabilityBoth teams report zero injuries as of the latest check; evaluate whether full squad availability for both sides eliminates injury risk as a differentiator and shifts the analytical focus toward form, tactical matchup, and market signals.

Tokens: 4234

Perspectives

Recent form and goal outputHome winBelgium's unbeaten streak (3 wins, 2 draws) and tighter defense (4 goals conceded vs Iran's 5) give them a clear edge despite both teams showing identical 13-goal attacking output over their last 5 matches; the 66.8% market probability and Iran's one recent loss further tilt the balance toward a Belgium victory, though Iran's 5-0 friendly win over Costa Rica shows they can also score freely, keeping confidence from reaching the maximum.72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form and goal output

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Fixture: BEL vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T19:12:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T13:00:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Belgium: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Belgium: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-21T16:03:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 66.8%, draw 20.9%, side B win 12.3%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-21T12:06:28Z -> 2026-06-21T16:03:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.25 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.25; william_hill side A 1.4 / draw 4.33 / side B 7 → side A 1.4 / draw 4.33 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.4 / draw 4.5 / side B 8 → side A 1.4 / draw 4.5 / side B 8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.42, draw 4.35, side B 7.25; william_hill: side A 1.4, draw 4.33, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.4, draw 4.5, side B 8; marathonbet: side A 1.45, draw 4.7, side B 8.1. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; correct scores 0-0 9.5, 0-1 15, 0-2 34; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 11, 0-1 17, 0-2 36; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 21, 0-2 41.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-21T16:00:30Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 23.2°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 60%, wind 13.4 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.

  10. Belgium's unbeaten streak (3 wins, 2 draws) and tighter defense (4 goals conceded vs Iran's 5) give them a clear edge despite both teams showing identical 13-goal attacking output over their last 5 matches; the 66.8% market probability and Iran's one recent loss further tilt the balance toward a Belgium victory, though Iran's 5-0 friendly win over Costa Rica shows they can also score freely, keeping confidence from reaching the maximum.

Conclusion note

Belgium enter this match on an unbeaten 5-match run with 13 goals scored and only 4 conceded, while Iran have 3 wins, 1 draw and 1 loss with 13 goals scored and 5 conceded; both teams drew their opening World Cup match, but the odds consensus heavily favors Belgium at 66.8% implied probability, supported by their superior defensive record and perfect recent form compared to Iran's single defeat.

Market odds implied expectationsHome winThe market consensus of 66.8% for Belgium versus 12.3% for Iran is well-supported by Belgium's unbeaten run in their last five matches (3 wins, 2 draws) including a dominant 5-0 friendly win, compared to Iran's mixed last five (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) with a 2-2 World Cup opener; odds have been completely flat across all bookmakers from 12:06 to 16:03, confirming the market has fully priced Belgium's home-schedule advantage and form while giving Iran only a slim chance despite their recent compe72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds implied expectations

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Fixture: BEL vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T19:12:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T13:00:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Belgium: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Belgium: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-21T16:03:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 66.8%, draw 20.9%, side B win 12.3%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-21T12:06:28Z -> 2026-06-21T16:03:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.25 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.25; william_hill side A 1.4 / draw 4.33 / side B 7 → side A 1.4 / draw 4.33 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.4 / draw 4.5 / side B 8 → side A 1.4 / draw 4.5 / side B 8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.42, draw 4.35, side B 7.25; william_hill: side A 1.4, draw 4.33, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.4, draw 4.5, side B 8; marathonbet: side A 1.45, draw 4.7, side B 8.1. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; correct scores 0-0 9.5, 0-1 15, 0-2 34; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 11, 0-1 17, 0-2 36; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 21, 0-2 41.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-21T16:00:30Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 23.2°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 60%, wind 13.4 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.

  10. The market consensus of 66.8% for Belgium versus 12.3% for Iran is well-supported by Belgium's unbeaten run in their last five matches (3 wins, 2 draws) including a dominant 5-0 friendly win, compared to Iran's mixed last five (3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss) with a 2-2 World Cup opener; odds have been completely flat across all bookmakers from 12:06 to 16:03, confirming the market has fully priced Belgium's home-schedule advantage and form while giving Iran only a slim chance despite their recent compe

Conclusion note

Belgium are priced as heavy favorites at 66.8% implied probability across 14 bookmakers with stable odds (no movement between updates), reflecting the market's strong expectation of a home win, while Iran's 12.3% implied chance shows their competitive recent form including a World Cup opening draw has not meaningfully narrowed the gap.

Squad fitness and availabilityHome winWith injury risk eliminated as a factor for both teams, the analysis shifts to market signals and form: the odds consensus gives Belgium a 66.8% chance of winning with no movement, reflecting strong bookmaker confidence, and Belgium's recent results (including a 5-0 friendly win and a 2-0 away win vs Croatia) are stronger than Iran's, though Iran's 2-2 draw with New Zealand shows they can compete; without head-to-head data, the market and form edge point to a Belgium win but with meaningful unce62%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Squad fitness and availability

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Fixture: BEL vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-20T19:12:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T13:00:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Belgium: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Belgium: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 17, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-21T16:03:19Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 66.8%, draw 20.9%, side B win 12.3%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-21T12:06:28Z -> 2026-06-21T16:03:19Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.25 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.25; william_hill side A 1.4 / draw 4.33 / side B 7 → side A 1.4 / draw 4.33 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.4 / draw 4.5 / side B 8 → side A 1.4 / draw 4.5 / side B 8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.42, draw 4.35, side B 7.25; william_hill: side A 1.4, draw 4.33, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.4, draw 4.5, side B 8; marathonbet: side A 1.45, draw 4.7, side B 8.1. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; correct scores 0-0 9.5, 0-1 15, 0-2 34; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 11, 0-1 17, 0-2 36; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 12, 0-1 21, 0-2 41.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-21T16:00:30Z. Kickoff weather: partly_cloudy, 23.2°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 60%, wind 13.4 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.

  10. With injury risk eliminated as a factor for both teams, the analysis shifts to market signals and form: the odds consensus gives Belgium a 66.8% chance of winning with no movement, reflecting strong bookmaker confidence, and Belgium's recent results (including a 5-0 friendly win and a 2-0 away win vs Croatia) are stronger than Iran's, though Iran's 2-2 draw with New Zealand shows they can compete; without head-to-head data, the market and form edge point to a Belgium win but with meaningful unce

Conclusion note

Belgium and Iran both have full squad availability with zero injuries and zero suspensions, so injury risk does not differentiate the sides; the market heavily favors Belgium at 66.8% implied probability with stable odds around 1.40, while Belgium's recent form shows 3 wins and 1 draw in their last 4 matches compared to Iran's 2 wins and 2 draws, though both teams drew their World Cup openers.

Synthesis

Belgium and Iran both drew their opening World Cup matches, but Belgium enter as strong favorites with an unbeaten five-match run and a tighter defense (4 goals conceded versus Iran's 5), while both teams have scored 13 goals over their recent form. The market consensus of 66.8% for a Belgium win is reinforced by all three analytical perspectives, yet Iran's 2-2 draw with New Zealand and 5-0 friendly victory show they can compete, which keeps the draw and upset probabilities meaningful rather than negligible. A plausible scenario is Belgium dominating possession and breaking through Iran's organized defense in the second half, though this remains a hypothesis given Iran's proven attacking threat.

Reasoning summary: All three perspectives select a Belgium victory with confidence scores from 0.62 to 0.72, aligned with the market implied probability of 66.8% and Belgium's superior recent form (unbeaten in five matches) compared to Iran's record of three wins, one draw, and one loss. Both teams have full squad availability with no injuries or suspensions, eliminating fitness as a differentiator. The recalled preview data shows similar 68% win confidence for both Belgium and Iran in their respective openers, co

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Egypt Preview editionRecall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.68. Probability distribution: Belgium win 68.0%; draw 20.0%; Egypt win 12.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 3-relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iran vs New Zealand Preview editionRecall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.68. Probability distribution: Iran win 68.0%; draw 22.0%; New Zealand win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iranrelevance 0.50