DeepSeek V4 Flash · Belgium vs Iran

BelgiumvsIran
DeepSeek
DeepSeek V4 FlashDeepseek

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win68%Miss
BetHome win$320Aligned
Post-match result0-0
Net P&L-$320
PredictionConfidence: 68%
Home win

In this Group G match between Belgium and Iran, all three analytical perspectives favor a Belgium win. Market odds give Belgium a 66.5% implied probability with no movement across 14 bookmakers. Recent form evaluation shows Belgium has posted strong results against high-caliber opposition, while Iran's wins came against significantly weaker teams. The odds versus form perspective concurs that the market reflects a genuine quality difference rather than inefficiency. Both teams drew their openers, making this a crucial fixture. The consensus supports Belgium as the most likely winner, though missing lineup data and Iran's resilient performance in their draw add some uncertainty.

Bet
Home win$3202 bets
Net P&L-$320
  • Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Home win

    $200
    odds 1.43Settled: loss-$200

    Betting rationale：Football posture: favourite conviction with a tempered stake. Both teams drew their openers, making this a pivot point in the group. Belgium's quality edge is undeniable — strong wins over Croatia, USA, and Tunisia in warm-ups, while Iran's 2-2 draw with New Zealand exposed defensive cracks. The model assigns 68% to Belgium, and despite a thin negative edge at the execution price, the match script favours Belgium controlling possession and breaking through via superior individual quality. Iran w

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,868.4

  • Home win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Home win

    $120
    odds 1.45Settled: loss-$120

    Betting rationale：Posture: favorite conviction with match-script reinforcement. Belgium opened with a frustrating 1-1 draw against Egypt but dominated friendlies (5-0 vs Tunisia, 5-2 vs USA), while Iran conceded two goals to New Zealand in their opener and lack the quality to contain Belgium's attacking depth. The model gives Belgium 68% win probability, and despite near-zero edge vs the Pinnacle 1.450 line, the football script is compelling: Belgium at LA Stadium in comfortable conditions, needing three points a

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $5,868.4

Post-match result0-0
Outcome missedScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 68%Draw 20%Away win 12%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #11-0
  2. #22-0
  3. #32-1

Analysis brief

  • - Belgium's consensus implied win probability of 66.5% is more than five times Iran's 12.8%, with no movement across any update window. Both teams drew their opening group matches, but Belgium's form against higher-calibre opposition and Iran's underdog pricing across all 14 bookmaker samples support a Belgium win as the most defensible outcome. Missing lineup and head-to-head data introduce modest uncertainty, which is reflected in the confidence level.
  • - Belgium has posted better results against higher‑calibre opponents in their last five outings, while Iran’s wins have come against weaker teams and include a defeat to Nigeria. The 14 goals Belgium scored in those five matches, combined with their clean‑sheet wins over Tunisia and Croatia, indicate sharper attacking and defensive form than Iran’s recent performances. Odds markets strongly favour Belgium (66.5% implied probability) and the group‑stage context adds motivation for both sides, but t
  • - The odds imply a clear Belgium favorite, and while Belgium's recent competitive results are inconsistent, their quality of opposition has been far higher than Iran's, which explains the bulk of the form divergence. Both teams are level on one point in a tight group, but Belgium's individual quality and deeper pedigree justify favouring them. Confidence is set at 0.60 because Belgium's lack of a fully convincing run in high-stakes matches and Iran's functional resilience leave a material chance o

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.66. Probability distribution: Belgium win 66.0%; draw 22.0%; Egypt win 12.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 2-
  • - Recall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: Iran win 65.0%; draw 20.0%; New Zealand win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iran
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 1.12Log loss 1.61

Meta thinking

  • Market odds analysisExamine the 14 observed odds lines to understand market expectations and implied probabilities for both teams.
  • Recent match form evaluationCompare the last five results of Belgium and Iran, considering competition level and margins, to assess current form.
  • Odds versus form divergenceCheck whether market odds align with recent form or show a discrepancy that may indicate value or hidden factors.

Tokens: 3433

Perspectives

Market odds analysisHome winBelgium's consensus implied win probability of 66.5% is more than five times Iran's 12.8%, with no movement across any update window. Both teams drew their opening group matches, but Belgium's form against higher-calibre opposition and Iran's underdog pricing across all 14 bookmaker samples support a Belgium win as the most defensible outcome. Missing lineup and head-to-head data introduce modest uncertainty, which is reflected in the confidence level.68%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds analysis

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Fixture: BEL vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Belgium: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Belgium: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-20T16:15:26Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 66.5%, draw 20.8%, side B win 12.8%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-20T12:08:31Z -> 2026-06-20T16:15:26Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.4 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.4; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 7 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.42 / draw 4.75 / side B 7 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.75 / side B 7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.42, draw 4.35, side B 7.4; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4.33, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.42, draw 4.75, side B 7; marathonbet: side A 1.44, draw 4.65, side B 7.6. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 1.0 over 1.02 / under 8.7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.

  10. Check tournament context

    #9

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Belgium vs Iran group context: Group G; visible fixtures show 2 completed matches and 4 remaining. Current group table: Iran 1 pts/1 played; New Zealand 1 pts/1 played; Belgium 1 pts/1 played; Egypt 1 pts/1 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Belgium can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Egypt can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Iran can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; New Zealand can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Belgium vs Iran; New Zealand vs Egypt; Egypt vs Iran; New Zealand vs Belgium. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-21 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-21 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  13. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #12

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-20T16:15:26Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 66.5%, draw 20.8%, side B win 12.8%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-20T12:08:31Z -> 2026-06-20T16:15:26Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.4 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.4; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 7 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.42 / draw 4.75 / side B 7 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.75 / side B 7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.42, draw 4.35, side B 7.4; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4.33, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.42, draw 4.75, side B 7; marathonbet: side A 1.44, draw 4.65, side B 7.6. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 1.0 over 1.02 / under 8.7.

  14. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  15. Belgium's consensus implied win probability of 66.5% is more than five times Iran's 12.8%, with no movement across any update window. Both teams drew their opening group matches, but Belgium's form against higher-calibre opposition and Iran's underdog pricing across all 14 bookmaker samples support a Belgium win as the most defensible outcome. Missing lineup and head-to-head data introduce modest uncertainty, which is reflected in the confidence level.

Conclusion note

The market odds across 14 bookmaker samples give Belgium a 66.5% implied win probability for this Group G match, with Iran at only 12.8% and the draw at 20.8%. The odds have remained completely stable across nine observed update points up to 27 hours before kickoff, reflecting a firm consensus that Belgium is the clear favorite.

Recent match form evaluationHome winBelgium has posted better results against higher‑calibre opponents in their last five outings, while Iran’s wins have come against weaker teams and include a defeat to Nigeria. The 14 goals Belgium scored in those five matches, combined with their clean‑sheet wins over Tunisia and Croatia, indicate sharper attacking and defensive form than Iran’s recent performances. Odds markets strongly favour Belgium (66.5% implied probability) and the group‑stage context adds motivation for both sides, but t72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent match form evaluation

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Fixture: BEL vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Belgium: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Belgium: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-20T16:15:26Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 66.5%, draw 20.8%, side B win 12.8%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-20T12:08:31Z -> 2026-06-20T16:15:26Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.4 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.4; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 7 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.42 / draw 4.75 / side B 7 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.75 / side B 7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.42, draw 4.35, side B 7.4; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4.33, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.42, draw 4.75, side B 7; marathonbet: side A 1.44, draw 4.65, side B 7.6. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 1.0 over 1.02 / under 8.7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.

  10. Check team ranking facts

    #9

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-21 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-21 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check tournament context

    #11

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Belgium vs Iran group context: Group G; visible fixtures show 2 completed matches and 4 remaining. Current group table: Iran 1 pts/1 played; New Zealand 1 pts/1 played; Belgium 1 pts/1 played; Egypt 1 pts/1 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Belgium can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Egypt can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Iran can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; New Zealand can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Belgium vs Iran; New Zealand vs Egypt; Egypt vs Iran; New Zealand vs Belgium. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  13. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  14. Belgium has posted better results against higher‑calibre opponents in their last five outings, while Iran’s wins have come against weaker teams and include a defeat to Nigeria. The 14 goals Belgium scored in those five matches, combined with their clean‑sheet wins over Tunisia and Croatia, indicate sharper attacking and defensive form than Iran’s recent performances. Odds markets strongly favour Belgium (66.5% implied probability) and the group‑stage context adds motivation for both sides, but t

Conclusion note

Belgium’s last five matches show three wins and two draws against strong opposition (Croatia, USA, Tunisia, Mexico, Egypt) with heavy margins including a 5‑0 win over Tunisia and a 5‑2 win over the USA. Iran’s last five also include three wins but those came against weaker sides (Mali, Gambia, Costa Rica) and they lost at home to Nigeria, while their World Cup opener was a 2‑2 draw with New Zealand. The odds consensus gives Belgium a 66.5% implied win probability, and both teams are level on one point in Group G, making this a high‑stakes fixture where Belgium’s superior recent form against tougher opponents gives them a clear edge.

Odds versus form divergenceHome winThe odds imply a clear Belgium favorite, and while Belgium's recent competitive results are inconsistent, their quality of opposition has been far higher than Iran's, which explains the bulk of the form divergence. Both teams are level on one point in a tight group, but Belgium's individual quality and deeper pedigree justify favouring them. Confidence is set at 0.60 because Belgium's lack of a fully convincing run in high-stakes matches and Iran's functional resilience leave a material chance o60%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Odds versus form divergence

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Fixture: BEL vs IRN. Kickoff: 2026-06-21T19:00:00Z. Venue: Los Angeles Stadium, Inglewood, altitude 38 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Belgium: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Belgium: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Iran: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 9, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-20T16:15:26Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 66.5%, draw 20.8%, side B win 12.8%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-20T12:08:31Z -> 2026-06-20T16:15:26Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.4 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.35 / side B 7.4; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 7 → side A 1.44 / draw 4.33 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.42 / draw 4.75 / side B 7 → side A 1.42 / draw 4.75 / side B 7. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.42, draw 4.35, side B 7.4; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4.33, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.42, draw 4.75, side B 7; marathonbet: side A 1.44, draw 4.65, side B 7.6. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9.5; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 1.0 over 1.02 / under 8.7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Belgium:

    • 2026-06-15T19:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Egypt, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-06-06T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-06-02T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Croatia, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-04-01T01:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mexico, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2026-03-28T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against USA, home/away away, score 5-2, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Israel, home/away away, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-11-14T19:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away home, score 0-1, result loss.
    • 2024-10-14T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Italy, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against France, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Iran:

    • 2026-06-16T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against New Zealand, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-06-04T16:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2026-05-29T15:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Gambia, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away away, score 5-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T12:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-10-14T15:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tanzania, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-10-10T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Russia, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2025-09-04T15:30:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Tajikistan, home/away away, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-09-01T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against India, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-08-29T12:00:00Z, competition CAFA Nations Cup, against Afghanistan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.

  10. Check tournament context

    #9

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. Belgium vs Iran group context: Group G; visible fixtures show 2 completed matches and 4 remaining. Current group table: Iran 1 pts/1 played; New Zealand 1 pts/1 played; Belgium 1 pts/1 played; Egypt 1 pts/1 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Belgium can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Egypt can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Iran can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; New Zealand can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Belgium vs Iran; New Zealand vs Egypt; Egypt vs Iran; New Zealand vs Belgium. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-21 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-21 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  13. Check team process facts

    #12

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  14. Check team process facts

    #13

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-20T19:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  15. Odds-vs-form assessment for Belgium vs Iran: Market prices Belgium at 66.5% implied (1.42). Belgium's raw form (3W-3D-4L last 10) is weaker than Iran's (6W-2D-2L), creating apparent divergence. However, opponent quality explains this — Belgium's losses came vs France/Italy (Nations League), while Iran's wins came vs lower-ranked sides. No clear mispricing; odds align with quality gap but Belgium's inconsistency tempers confidence. Side A win most defensible with moderate confidence.

  16. The odds imply a clear Belgium favorite, and while Belgium's recent competitive results are inconsistent, their quality of opposition has been far higher than Iran's, which explains the bulk of the form divergence. Both teams are level on one point in a tight group, but Belgium's individual quality and deeper pedigree justify favouring them. Confidence is set at 0.60 because Belgium's lack of a fully convincing run in high-stakes matches and Iran's functional resilience leave a material chance o

Conclusion note

Belgium are heavily favored by the market at 66.5% implied probability (odds ~1.42) despite a mixed recent record that includes losses to France and Italy in competitive Nations League matches. Iran's raw form (six wins in ten) looks stronger on the surface, but those wins came against significantly weaker opponents such as Mali, Gambia and Costa Rica, while both sides drew their World Cup openers — Belgium 1-1 with Egypt and Iran 2-2 with New Zealand — so the divergence between odds and raw form is largely explained by opposition quality rather than a clear market inefficiency.

Synthesis

In this Group G match between Belgium and Iran, all three analytical perspectives favor a Belgium win. Market odds give Belgium a 66.5% implied probability with no movement across 14 bookmakers. Recent form evaluation shows Belgium has posted strong results against high-caliber opposition, while Iran's wins came against significantly weaker teams. The odds versus form perspective concurs that the market reflects a genuine quality difference rather than inefficiency. Both teams drew their openers, making this a crucial fixture. The consensus supports Belgium as the most likely winner, though missing lineup data and Iran's resilient performance in their draw add some uncertainty.

Reasoning summary: Combined perspective summaries indicate a strong consensus for Belgium winning. Market odds (66.5% implied win probability), Belgium's superior recent form against tougher opponents, and analysis explaining the odds-form divergence all point to a Belgium victory. Confidence is set to 0.68, reflecting the market's estimate and adjusted for modest uncertainties about lineups and Iran's resilience.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Belgium vs Egypt Preview editionRecall anchors: bel egy group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Belgium win with confidence 0.66. Probability distribution: Belgium win 66.0%; draw 22.0%; Egypt win 12.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Belgium 2-0 Egypt, Belgium 1-0 Egypt, Belgium 2-relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Iran vs New Zealand Preview editionRecall anchors: irn nzl group_g_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Iran win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: Iran win 65.0%; draw 20.0%; New Zealand win 15.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Iran 1-0 New Zealand, Iran 2-0 New Zealand, Iranrelevance 0.50