MiMo V2.5 Pro · Austria vs Jordan

AustriavsJordan
XiaomiMiMo
MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Actionable
PredictionHome win70%Hit
BetDraw$140Reverse
Post-match result3-1
Net P&L-$140
PredictionConfidence: 70%
Home win

Austria enters as clear favorites against Jordan, supported by a 39-place FIFA ranking advantage, a bookmaker consensus of nearly 70% implied win probability across 14 samples, and recent friendly form including a 5-1 win over Ghana. Jordan's recent losses to Colombia and Switzerland suggest difficulty against high-caliber European and South American sides, though their Arab Cup success indicates tournament capability. The decisive tradeoff is between Austria's consistent quality and market alignment versus Jordan's sporadic tournament threat, with the neutral venue in Santa Clara removing any home advantage. Austria's strong recent results make a win the most probable outcome, though Jordan could potentially frustrate in a low-scoring contest.

Bet
Draw$140
Net P&L-$140
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: ActionableReverse

    Draw

    $140
    odds 5.31Settled: loss-$140

    Betting rationale：Draw hedge position at 5.31 (Pinnacle) with model edge +1.2%. Jordan's tournament resilience (draws vs Nigeria, Costa Rica; Arab Cup success) suggests they can frustrate Austria. High humidity (88%) at neutral Levi's Stadium could slow tempo and limit Austria's attacking rhythm. Group stage openers often produce nervous, tight contests. Austria favored but odds are efficient; draw offers the only positive model edge as a small contrarian satellite bet (~1.5% bankroll).

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $8,342.1

Post-match result3-1
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 70%Draw 20%Away win 10%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #12-0
  2. #22-1
  3. #31-0

Analysis brief

  • - The 39-place FIFA ranking gap, Austria's 69.4% bookmaker-implied win probability, and their strong recent results (5-1 vs Ghana, 1-0 vs Tunisia, 1-0 vs South Korea) all favor an Austria win. Jordan's Arab Cup success in late 2025 shows tournament capability, but their heavy defeats to Colombia and Switzerland indicate difficulty against quality European-level sides. Uncertainty remains around unavailable lineups and head-to-head data, and the slight odds movement toward Jordan warrants a moderat
  • - The market consensus strongly favors Austria with nearly 70% implied probability across 14 bookmaker samples, with only modest movement against Austria over recent odds updates. This aligns with Austria's superior recent form in friendlies and Nations League, while Jordan struggled against comparable European and South American opposition in their recent fixtures. The neutral venue in Santa Clara removes any traditional home advantage, but the quality gap reflected in both odds and form evidence
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.14Log loss 0.36

Meta thinking

  • rationalUse structured match, odds and team context.
  • marketCross-check the prediction against bookmaker odds.

Tokens: 64

Perspectives

rationalHome winThe 39-place FIFA ranking gap, Austria's 69.4% bookmaker-implied win probability, and their strong recent results (5-1 vs Ghana, 1-0 vs Tunisia, 1-0 vs South Korea) all favor an Austria win. Jordan's Arab Cup success in late 2025 shows tournament capability, but their heavy defeats to Colombia and Switzerland indicate difficulty against quality European-level sides. Uncertainty remains around unavailable lineups and head-to-head data, and the slight odds movement toward Jordan warrants a moderat67%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    rational

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Fixture: AUT vs JOR. Kickoff: 2026-06-17T04:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-16T12:33:18Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-16T12:55:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Austria: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Austria: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Jordan: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Jordan: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-16T08:15:08Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 69.4%, draw 19%, side B win 11.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-15T16:04:23Z -> 2026-06-16T08:15:08Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -1.55pp, draw +0.84pp, side B win +0.72pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.33 / draw 5.1 / side B 9 → side A 1.38 / draw 4.75 / side B 8.1; william_hill side A 1.33 / draw 4.8 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.36 / draw 4.8 / side B 7.5; bet365 side A 1.33 / draw 5.5 / side B 7.5 → side A 1.36 / draw 5.25 / side B 7.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.38, draw 4.75, side B 8.1; william_hill: side A 1.36, draw 4.8, side B 7.5; bet365: side A 1.36, draw 5.25, side B 7.5; marathonbet: side A 1.39, draw 5.2, side B 8.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; marathonbet: total 1.0 over 1.01 / under 10.25.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-16T12:56:05Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 16.4°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 88%, wind 12 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Austria:

    • 2026-06-01T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ghana, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-14T15:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-13T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Norway, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-09-06T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-02T19:00:00Z, competition Euro Championship, against Türkiye, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Jordan:

    • 2026-06-07T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-12-15T17:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Iraq, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-09T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Egypt, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-06T11:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Kuwait, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against United Arab Emirates, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.

  10. Check team ranking facts

    #9

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Austria's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 24. points 1593.45; previous rank 24; previous points 1585.51; rated matches 50; confederation UEFA.

  11. Check team ranking facts

    #10

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Jordan's pre-match FIFA men's ranking release is dated 2026-04-01; rank 63. points 1391.45; previous rank 64; previous points 1388.93; rated matches 60; confederation AFC.

  12. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  13. The 39-place FIFA ranking gap, Austria's 69.4% bookmaker-implied win probability, and their strong recent results (5-1 vs Ghana, 1-0 vs Tunisia, 1-0 vs South Korea) all favor an Austria win. Jordan's Arab Cup success in late 2025 shows tournament capability, but their heavy defeats to Colombia and Switzerland indicate difficulty against quality European-level sides. Uncertainty remains around unavailable lineups and head-to-head data, and the slight odds movement toward Jordan warrants a moderat

Conclusion note

Austria (FIFA rank 24) are strong bookmaker favorites with a 69.4% implied win probability against Jordan (rank 63), supported by Austria's recent form of three consecutive friendly wins including a 5-1 victory over Ghana, while Jordan have lost their last two friendlies to Colombia (0-2) and Switzerland (1-4), suggesting they struggle against higher-ranked opponents at this level.

marketHome winThe market consensus strongly favors Austria with nearly 70% implied probability across 14 bookmaker samples, with only modest movement against Austria over recent odds updates. This aligns with Austria's superior recent form in friendlies and Nations League, while Jordan struggled against comparable European and South American opposition in their recent fixtures. The neutral venue in Santa Clara removes any traditional home advantage, but the quality gap reflected in both odds and form evidence72%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    market

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Fixture: AUT vs JOR. Kickoff: 2026-06-17T04:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-16T12:33:18Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-16T12:55:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Austria: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Austria: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Jordan: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Jordan: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-16T08:15:08Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 69.4%, draw 19%, side B win 11.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-15T16:04:23Z -> 2026-06-16T08:15:08Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -1.55pp, draw +0.84pp, side B win +0.72pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.33 / draw 5.1 / side B 9 → side A 1.38 / draw 4.75 / side B 8.1; william_hill side A 1.33 / draw 4.8 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.36 / draw 4.8 / side B 7.5; bet365 side A 1.33 / draw 5.5 / side B 7.5 → side A 1.36 / draw 5.25 / side B 7.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.38, draw 4.75, side B 8.1; william_hill: side A 1.36, draw 4.8, side B 7.5; bet365: side A 1.36, draw 5.25, side B 7.5; marathonbet: side A 1.39, draw 5.2, side B 8.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; marathonbet: total 1.0 over 1.01 / under 10.25.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-16T12:56:05Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 16.4°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 88%, wind 12 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Austria:

    • 2026-06-01T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ghana, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-14T15:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-13T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Norway, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-09-06T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-02T19:00:00Z, competition Euro Championship, against Türkiye, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Jordan:

    • 2026-06-07T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-12-15T17:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Iraq, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-09T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Egypt, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-06T11:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Kuwait, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against United Arab Emirates, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.

  10. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #9

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-16T08:15:08Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 69.4%, draw 19%, side B win 11.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-15T16:04:23Z -> 2026-06-16T08:15:08Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -1.55pp, draw +0.84pp, side B win +0.72pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.33 / draw 5.1 / side B 9 → side A 1.38 / draw 4.75 / side B 8.1; william_hill side A 1.33 / draw 4.8 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.36 / draw 4.8 / side B 7.5; bet365 side A 1.33 / draw 5.5 / side B 7.5 → side A 1.36 / draw 5.25 / side B 7.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.38, draw 4.75, side B 8.1; william_hill: side A 1.36, draw 4.8, side B 7.5; bet365: side A 1.36, draw 5.25, side B 7.5; marathonbet: side A 1.39, draw 5.2, side B 8.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; marathonbet: total 1.0 over 1.01 / under 10.25.

  11. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  12. The market consensus strongly favors Austria with nearly 70% implied probability across 14 bookmaker samples, with only modest movement against Austria over recent odds updates. This aligns with Austria's superior recent form in friendlies and Nations League, while Jordan struggled against comparable European and South American opposition in their recent fixtures. The neutral venue in Santa Clara removes any traditional home advantage, but the quality gap reflected in both odds and form evidence

Conclusion note

Bookmaker consensus across 14 samples shows Austria favored with 69.4% implied win probability, with representative odds from 10bet (1.38), William Hill (1.36), bet365 (1.36), and Marathonbet (1.39) all consistently pointing to an Austrian victory, while Austria's recent form includes three consecutive friendly wins including a 5-1 demolition of Ghana, supporting the market's assessment against a Jordan side that lost 0-2 to Colombia and 1-4 to Switzerland in their most recent friendlies.

Synthesis

Austria enters as clear favorites against Jordan, supported by a 39-place FIFA ranking advantage, a bookmaker consensus of nearly 70% implied win probability across 14 samples, and recent friendly form including a 5-1 win over Ghana. Jordan's recent losses to Colombia and Switzerland suggest difficulty against high-caliber European and South American sides, though their Arab Cup success indicates tournament capability. The decisive tradeoff is between Austria's consistent quality and market alignment versus Jordan's sporadic tournament threat, with the neutral venue in Santa Clara removing any home advantage. Austria's strong recent results make a win the most probable outcome, though Jordan could potentially frustrate in a low-scoring contest.

Reasoning summary: Both rational analysis and market consensus strongly favor an Austria victory over Jordan. Austria's 39-place higher FIFA ranking, superior recent friendly results including a 5-1 demolition of Ghana, and a bookmaker-implied win probability of approximately 69.4% provide robust evidence for their favoritism. Jordan's recent defeats to Colombia and Switzerland highlight their struggles against top-level opposition, though their Arab Cup success demonstrates occasional tournament resilience. The e