Gemini 3.1 Pro · Austria vs Jordan

AustriavsJordan
Gemini
Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: ActionableInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionHome win70%Hit
BetDraw$150Reverse
Post-match result3-1
Net P&L-$150
PredictionConfidence: 70%
Home win

Austria is heavily favored to win this match, entering the fixture on an excellent five-match unbeaten run that includes four victories over strong international opponents. Jordan, meanwhile, has struggled recently, going winless in their last four games with losses to Colombia and Switzerland. The betting markets strongly reflect this quality gap, giving Austria an implied win probability of nearly 70%. Given Austria's superior form, momentum, and squad quality, they are the clear favorites to secure a victory.

Bet
Draw$150
Net P&L-$150
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $150
    odds 5.45Settled: loss-$150

    Betting rationale：Austria is rightfully a heavy favorite, but their recent narrow 1-0 victories over Tunisia and South Korea suggest they can sometimes struggle to blow teams away. Jordan has shown defensive resilience and an ability to counter in recent 2-2 draws against competent sides like Nigeria and Costa Rica. With the model identifying a marginal positive edge on the draw at 5.450, a small satellite bet captures the classic opening-match narrative of a stubborn underdog sitting deep and frustrating a heavy

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $11,508.9

Post-match result3-1
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 70%Draw 20%Away win 10%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #33-0

Analysis brief

  • - Austria's highly consistent unbeaten run strongly outweighs Jordan's recent struggles against diverse international opponents, which is also heavily supported by bookmaker odds implying around a 69% probability for an Austrian victory.
  • - The betting market overwhelmingly favors Austria, reflecting a clear consensus across 14 odds sources. While minor odds movement has slightly shortened Jordan's price, the nearly 70% implied probability for an Austria win heavily aligns with their strong recent form and the anticipated quality gap.
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.14Log loss 0.36

Meta thinking

  • Recent Form and Performance ConsistencyAnalyze the recent five-match records of Austria and Jordan, comparing Austria's unbeaten streak in UEFA Nations League and friendly fixtures against Jordan's mixed results against diverse international opponents.
  • Market Odds PositioningExamine the 14 captured odds sources to understand the betting market's implied probabilities and identify any consensus or divergence in expectations for this intercontinental group stage matchup.

Tokens: 2824

Perspectives

Recent Form and Performance ConsistencyHome winAustria's highly consistent unbeaten run strongly outweighs Jordan's recent struggles against diverse international opponents, which is also heavily supported by bookmaker odds implying around a 69% probability for an Austrian victory.75%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Form and Performance Consistency

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Fixture: AUT vs JOR. Kickoff: 2026-06-17T04:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-16T12:33:18Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-16T12:55:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Austria: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Austria: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Jordan: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Jordan: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-16T08:15:08Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 69.4%, draw 19%, side B win 11.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-15T16:04:23Z -> 2026-06-16T08:15:08Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -1.55pp, draw +0.84pp, side B win +0.72pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.33 / draw 5.1 / side B 9 → side A 1.38 / draw 4.75 / side B 8.1; william_hill side A 1.33 / draw 4.8 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.36 / draw 4.8 / side B 7.5; bet365 side A 1.33 / draw 5.5 / side B 7.5 → side A 1.36 / draw 5.25 / side B 7.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.38, draw 4.75, side B 8.1; william_hill: side A 1.36, draw 4.8, side B 7.5; bet365: side A 1.36, draw 5.25, side B 7.5; marathonbet: side A 1.39, draw 5.2, side B 8.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; marathonbet: total 1.0 over 1.01 / under 10.25.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-16T12:56:05Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 16.4°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 88%, wind 12 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Austria:

    • 2026-06-01T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ghana, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-14T15:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-13T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Norway, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-09-06T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-02T19:00:00Z, competition Euro Championship, against Türkiye, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Jordan:

    • 2026-06-07T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-12-15T17:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Iraq, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-09T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Egypt, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-06T11:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Kuwait, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against United Arab Emirates, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.

  10. Austria's highly consistent unbeaten run strongly outweighs Jordan's recent struggles against diverse international opponents, which is also heavily supported by bookmaker odds implying around a 69% probability for an Austrian victory.

Conclusion note

Austria enters the match in excellent form, boasting four wins and one draw in their last five outings across friendlies and the UEFA Nations League, including solid victories over Tunisia, South Korea, and Ghana. In contrast, Jordan has struggled in their recent international fixtures, going winless in their last four matches with defeats to Colombia and Switzerland alongside draws against Nigeria and Costa Rica.

Market Odds PositioningHome winThe betting market overwhelmingly favors Austria, reflecting a clear consensus across 14 odds sources. While minor odds movement has slightly shortened Jordan's price, the nearly 70% implied probability for an Austria win heavily aligns with their strong recent form and the anticipated quality gap.70%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market Odds Positioning

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Fixture: AUT vs JOR. Kickoff: 2026-06-17T04:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-16T12:33:18Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-16T12:55:00Z); weather captured (1 observed); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Austria: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Austria: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Jordan: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Jordan: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-16T08:15:08Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 69.4%, draw 19%, side B win 11.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-15T16:04:23Z -> 2026-06-16T08:15:08Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -1.55pp, draw +0.84pp, side B win +0.72pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.33 / draw 5.1 / side B 9 → side A 1.38 / draw 4.75 / side B 8.1; william_hill side A 1.33 / draw 4.8 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.36 / draw 4.8 / side B 7.5; bet365 side A 1.33 / draw 5.5 / side B 7.5 → side A 1.36 / draw 5.25 / side B 7.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.38, draw 4.75, side B 8.1; william_hill: side A 1.36, draw 4.8, side B 7.5; bet365: side A 1.36, draw 5.25, side B 7.5; marathonbet: side A 1.39, draw 5.2, side B 8.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 13; marathonbet: total 1.0 over 1.01 / under 10.25.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. Weather sample time: 2026-06-16T12:56:05Z. Kickoff weather: clear, 16.4°C, precipitation 0 mm, humidity 88%, wind 12 km/h.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Austria:

    • 2026-06-01T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ghana, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-14T15:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-13T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Norway, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-09-06T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-02T19:00:00Z, competition Euro Championship, against Türkiye, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-16T13:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Jordan:

    • 2026-06-07T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-12-15T17:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Iraq, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-09T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Egypt, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-06T11:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Kuwait, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against United Arab Emirates, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.

  10. The betting market overwhelmingly favors Austria, reflecting a clear consensus across 14 odds sources. While minor odds movement has slightly shortened Jordan's price, the nearly 70% implied probability for an Austria win heavily aligns with their strong recent form and the anticipated quality gap.

Conclusion note

Across 14 captured bookmakers, Austria is positioned as the heavy favorite with consensus odds between 1.36 and 1.39, translating to a 69.4% implied probability of victory. Although there has been a minor market drift slightly reducing Austria's probability by 1.55 percentage points, the massive pricing gap clearly reflects confidence in their superior form compared to Jordan's recent struggles against higher-tier opposition.

Synthesis

Austria is heavily favored to win this match, entering the fixture on an excellent five-match unbeaten run that includes four victories over strong international opponents. Jordan, meanwhile, has struggled recently, going winless in their last four games with losses to Colombia and Switzerland. The betting markets strongly reflect this quality gap, giving Austria an implied win probability of nearly 70%. Given Austria's superior form, momentum, and squad quality, they are the clear favorites to secure a victory.

Reasoning summary: Both recent performance data and market odds overwhelmingly point to an Austria victory. Austria is unbeaten in their last five matches with four wins, whereas Jordan is winless in their last four against diverse international opposition. Consensus odds around 1.36-1.39 firmly establish Austria as the dominant favorite with around a 69.4% implied probability.