Gemini 3.1 Pro · Austria vs Jordan

AustriavsJordan
Gemini
Gemini 3.1 ProGoogle

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionHome win72%Hit
BetDraw$150Reverse
Post-match result3-1
Net P&L-$150
PredictionConfidence: 72%
Home win

Austria are heavy favorites to defeat Jordan, backed by a stable bookmaker consensus and excellent recent form. Austria has comfortably dispatched intercontinental opponents like Ghana and South Korea recently, while Jordan has struggled considerably against higher-caliber teams, suffering clear defeats against Colombia and Switzerland. The evident disparity in squad quality and recent results points strongly towards a comfortable victory for Austria.

Bet
Draw$150
Net P&L-$150
  • Draw1X2Source prediction: PreviewReverse

    Draw

    $150
    odds 5.45Settled: loss-$150

    Betting rationale：Austria is rightfully a heavy favorite, but their recent narrow 1-0 victories over Tunisia and South Korea suggest they can sometimes struggle to blow teams away. Jordan has shown defensive resilience and an ability to counter in recent 2-2 draws against competent sides like Nigeria and Costa Rica. With the model identifying a marginal positive edge on the draw at 5.450, a small satellite bet captures the classic opening-match narrative of a stubborn underdog sitting deep and frustrating a heavy

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $11,508.9

Post-match result3-1
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win
Home win 72%Draw 19%Away win 9%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #12-0
  2. #21-0
  3. #33-0

Analysis brief

  • - Austria's dominant recent form against diverse global opposition and a heavy bookmaker consensus strongly favor them, especially given Jordan's evident difficulties defending against high-caliber European and South American teams.
  • - Bookmakers have established Austria as heavy favorites with stable odds and an implied win probability exceeding 70%, reflecting a clear market consensus driven by the disparity in recent form and overall quality between the two sides.
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.12Log loss 0.33

Meta thinking

  • Recent Form and Intercontinental MatchupsEvaluate Austria's strong recent unbeaten run against teams like South Korea and Ghana, compared to Jordan's results against South American and European opponents like Colombia and Switzerland, to assess baseline team momentum.
  • Pre-match Market Odds AnalysisAnalyze the 14 captured pre-match market odds to determine the bookmakers' implied probability and confidence levels for the matchup between Austria and Jordan.

Tokens: 3027

Perspectives

Recent Form and Intercontinental MatchupsHome winAustria's dominant recent form against diverse global opposition and a heavy bookmaker consensus strongly favor them, especially given Jordan's evident difficulties defending against high-caliber European and South American teams.75%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent Form and Intercontinental Matchups

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-15T04:00:00Z. Fixture: AUT vs JOR. Kickoff: 2026-06-17T04:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-15T04:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T04:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Austria: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Austria: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Jordan: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Jordan: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T04:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 3, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T20:03:31Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 71.3%, draw 18.1%, side B win 10.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z -> 2026-06-14T20:03:31Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.33 / draw 5.1 / side B 9.1 → side A 1.33 / draw 5.1 / side B 9.1; william_hill side A 1.33 / draw 5 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.33 / draw 5 / side B 8.5; bet365 side A 1.33 / draw 5.5 / side B 8 → side A 1.33 / draw 5.5 / side B 8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.33, draw 5.1, side B 9.1; william_hill: side A 1.33, draw 5, side B 8.5; bet365: side A 1.33, draw 5.5, side B 8; marathonbet: side A 1.33, draw 5.35, side B 9.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 15; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.1 / under 5.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T04:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T04:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T04:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Austria:

    • 2026-06-01T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ghana, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-14T15:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-13T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Norway, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-09-06T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-02T19:00:00Z, competition Euro Championship, against Türkiye, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T04:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Jordan:

    • 2026-06-07T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-12-15T17:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Iraq, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-09T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Egypt, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-06T11:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Kuwait, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against United Arab Emirates, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.

  10. Austria's dominant recent form against diverse global opposition and a heavy bookmaker consensus strongly favor them, especially given Jordan's evident difficulties defending against high-caliber European and South American teams.

Conclusion note

Austria enters the match in excellent form, having recently secured convincing victories over intercontinental opponents like Ghana and South Korea. Conversely, Jordan has struggled when stepping up to face higher-tier global opposition, suffering clear recent defeats against Colombia and Switzerland.

Pre-match Market Odds AnalysisHome winBookmakers have established Austria as heavy favorites with stable odds and an implied win probability exceeding 70%, reflecting a clear market consensus driven by the disparity in recent form and overall quality between the two sides.71%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Pre-match Market Odds Analysis

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-15T04:00:00Z. Fixture: AUT vs JOR. Kickoff: 2026-06-17T04:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-15T04:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries not captured (not captured); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T04:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Austria: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Austria: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Jordan: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Jordan: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T04:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 3, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-14T20:03:31Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 71.3%, draw 18.1%, side B win 10.7%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-14T16:05:34Z -> 2026-06-14T20:03:31Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.33 / draw 5.1 / side B 9.1 → side A 1.33 / draw 5.1 / side B 9.1; william_hill side A 1.33 / draw 5 / side B 8.5 → side A 1.33 / draw 5 / side B 8.5; bet365 side A 1.33 / draw 5.5 / side B 8 → side A 1.33 / draw 5.5 / side B 8. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.33, draw 5.1, side B 9.1; william_hill: side A 1.33, draw 5, side B 8.5; bet365: side A 1.33, draw 5.5, side B 8; marathonbet: side A 1.33, draw 5.35, side B 9.7. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.04 / under 10; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.03 / under 15; marathonbet: total 1.25 over 1.1 / under 5.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T04:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T04:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T04:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Austria:

    • 2026-06-01T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ghana, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-11-14T15:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2024-10-13T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Norway, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
    • 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
    • 2024-09-06T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
    • 2024-07-02T19:00:00Z, competition Euro Championship, against Türkiye, home/away home, score 1-2, result loss.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-15T04:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Jordan:

    • 2026-06-07T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-12-15T17:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Iraq, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-09T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Egypt, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-06T11:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Kuwait, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against United Arab Emirates, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
    • 2025-11-18T18:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mali, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.

  10. Bookmakers have established Austria as heavy favorites with stable odds and an implied win probability exceeding 70%, reflecting a clear market consensus driven by the disparity in recent form and overall quality between the two sides.

Conclusion note

Pre-match market odds from 14 bookmakers show a strong and stable consensus favoring Austria, with their victory priced around 1.33, translating to a 71.3% implied probability. The market's high confidence in Austria aligns with their solid recent form of consecutive wins, while Jordan's odds of 8.0 to 9.7 reflect their recent multi-goal defeats against higher-tier opponents like Switzerland and Colombia.

Synthesis

Austria are heavy favorites to defeat Jordan, backed by a stable bookmaker consensus and excellent recent form. Austria has comfortably dispatched intercontinental opponents like Ghana and South Korea recently, while Jordan has struggled considerably against higher-caliber teams, suffering clear defeats against Colombia and Switzerland. The evident disparity in squad quality and recent results points strongly towards a comfortable victory for Austria.

Reasoning summary: Both the recent form and pre-match market odds strongly align in favoring an Austria win. Bookmakers price Austria at around 1.33, implying an over 70% probability of victory. This high market confidence is justified by Austria's solid recent performances against diverse global opponents, contrasted with Jordan's multi-goal defeats when facing higher-tier European and South American sides.