MiMo V2.5 Pro · Argentina vs Austria | WorldCupBench.ai

ArgentinavsAustriaJun 22, 17:00 UTC

MiMo V2.5 ProXiaomi MiMo

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Preview

PredictionHome win67%

BetHome win$230Aligned

Post-match result2-0

Net P&L+$128.8

PredictionConfidence: 67%

Home win

Argentina are favored to beat Austria based on convergent evidence from market consensus, recent form, and calibration data. The market implies a 64.6% win probability for Argentina, and their nine-match winning streak with exceptional defensive record (two goals conceded in ten matches) outweighs Austria's own four-match winning streak and 3-1 opener victory against Jordan. While Austria are not without momentum, Argentina's superior quality differential in recent performance makes them the most likely winner.

Bet

Home win$230

Net P&L+$128.8

Home win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned
Home win
$230
odds 1.56Settled: win+$128.8
Betting rationale：Football posture: Favorite conviction. Match script: Argentina enter as strong tournament favorites with elite defensive form (one goal conceded in five matches). Austria are in good shape but have shown defensive cracks (three goals conceded in five). The match script features Argentina controlling tempo, pressing compactly, and likely breaking through for at least one goal. The 1.56 execution price on Pinnacle implies a ~64% win probability, while the model estimates 61.1%—a small negative edg
Payout: $358.8 · Balance after: $7,611.3

Post-match result2-0

Outcome hitScoreline hitClosest off by 0 goals

3-way probabilityTop pick: Home win

Home win 67%Draw 21%Away win 12%

Scoreline predictionsdistance 0

#11-0
#22-0Hit
#32-1

Analysis brief

- The betting market consensus across 14 bookmakers gives Argentina a decisive edge at 64.6% implied win probability, with line movement showing slight drift toward Argentina being even more favored over the observed window. Both teams enter in winning form from their World Cup openers, but Argentina's broader quality differential and consistent market support across multiple bookmakers make side_a_win the most defensible outcome, with confidence tempered slightly by the absence of confirmed lineu
- Argentina's recent form shows significantly stronger momentum with nine consecutive wins compared to Austria's four, and their defensive record of just 0.2 goals conceded per match versus Austria's 0.8 indicates superior current form; the bookmaker consensus of 64.6% implied probability for Argentina aligns with this form differential, though Austria's own four-match winning streak and 3-1 World Cup opener victory over Jordan means they are not without momentum themselves.
- My calibration data reveals high-confidence predictions achieve 66.7% accuracy versus 0% for low-confidence, indicating I should trust market favorites when confident. Argentina's 64.6% implied win probability aligns with my calibration pattern, and their superior recent form (9 wins, 1 draw in 10) against stronger opposition than Austria's recent opponents supports siding with the favorite despite no head-to-head data and both teams being level on points after matchday one.

Memory brief

- Recall anchors: arg alg group_j_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Argentina win with confidence 0.66. Probability distribution: Argentina win 66.0%; draw 22.0%; Algeria win 12.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Argentina 1-0 Algeria, Argentina 1-1 Alg
- Recall anchors: aut jor group_j_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Austria win with confidence 0.74. Probability distribution: Austria win 74.3%; draw 16.1%; Jordan win 9.6%. Top-3 scorelines: Austria 1-0 Jordan, Austria 2-0 Jordan, Austria
- Recall anchors: aut jor group_j_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Austria win with confidence 0.70. Probability distribution: Austria win 70.0%; draw 20.0%; Jordan win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Austria 2-0 Jordan, Austria 2-1 Jordan, Austr

This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this prediction|Brier 0.16Log loss 0.40

Meta thinking

Market odds consensusAnalyze the captured betting odds data to understand market sentiment and implied probabilities for this group stage match between Argentina and Austria.
Recent form evaluationCompare both teams' recent match records, focusing on win streaks, opponent quality, and scoring patterns to assess current momentum.
Calibration-based judgmentUse the participant prediction history's calibration data to investigate if high-confidence predictions have shown higher accuracy, informing a potential contrarian angle.

Tokens: 3556

Perspectives

Market odds consensusHome winThe betting market consensus across 14 bookmakers gives Argentina a decisive edge at 64.6% implied win probability, with line movement showing slight drift toward Argentina being even more favored over the observed window. Both teams enter in winning form from their World Cup openers, but Argentina's broader quality differential and consistent market support across multiple bookmakers make side_a_win the most defensible outcome, with confidence tempered slightly by the absence of confirmed lineu64%

Analysis process

Analysis goal
Market odds consensus
The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.
Check match details
#2
Match details: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. Fixture: Argentina vs AUT. Kickoff: 2026-06-22T17:00:00Z. Venue: Dallas Stadium, Arlington, altitude 183 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T17:00:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-22T11:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).
Check availability facts
#3
Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.
- Argentina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- Argentina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
- Austria: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- Austria: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
Compare bookmaker consensus
#4
Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 18, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-22T12:02:25Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 64.6%, draw 22.4%, side B win 13%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-22T08:03:17Z -> 2026-06-22T12:02:25Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.44pp, draw -0.13pp, side B win -0.31pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.45 / draw 4.1 / side B 7.3 → side A 1.43 / draw 4.2 / side B 7.75; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 6.5 → side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.45 / draw 4.33 / side B 8 → side A 1.45 / draw 4.33 / side B 7.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.43, draw 4.2, side B 7.75; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.45, draw 4.33, side B 7.5; marathonbet: side A 1.49, draw 4.4, side B 7.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9; correct scores 0-0 9, 0-1 13, 0-2 34; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 10, 0-1 15, 0-2 36; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 10, 0-1 17, 0-2 41.
Check detailed weather
#5
Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.
Check head-to-head
#6
Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.
Check recent form
#7
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Argentina:
- 2026-06-17T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Algeria, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
- 2026-06-07T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Honduras, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
- 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Zambia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
- 2026-03-27T23:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mauritania, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
- 2025-11-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Angola, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
- 2025-10-15T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Puerto Rico, home/away away, score 6-0, result win.
- 2025-10-11T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
- 2024-07-15T00:30:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
- 2024-07-10T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Canada, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
- 2024-07-05T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
Check recent form
#8
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Austria:
- 2026-06-17T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Jordan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
- 2026-06-01T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
- 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
- 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ghana, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
- 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
- 2024-11-14T15:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
- 2024-10-13T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Norway, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
- 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
- 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
- 2024-09-06T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
Check match details
#9
Match details: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. Fixture: Argentina vs AUT. Kickoff: 2026-06-22T17:00:00Z. Venue: Dallas Stadium, Arlington, altitude 183 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T17:00:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-22T11:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).
This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.
The betting market consensus across 14 bookmakers gives Argentina a decisive edge at 64.6% implied win probability, with line movement showing slight drift toward Argentina being even more favored over the observed window. Both teams enter in winning form from their World Cup openers, but Argentina's broader quality differential and consistent market support across multiple bookmakers make side_a_win the most defensible outcome, with confidence tempered slightly by the absence of confirmed lineu

Conclusion note

Argentina face Austria in this World Cup group stage match with 14 bookmakers across the market consensus implying a 64.6% probability of an Argentina victory, compared to 22.4% for a draw and just 13% for an Austria win; Argentina's strong recent form of nine wins and one draw in their last ten matches, including a 3-0 World Cup opening victory over Algeria, aligns with this market pricing, while Austria also won their opener 3-1 against Jordan but the market treats them as clear underdogs.

Recent form evaluationHome winArgentina's recent form shows significantly stronger momentum with nine consecutive wins compared to Austria's four, and their defensive record of just 0.2 goals conceded per match versus Austria's 0.8 indicates superior current form; the bookmaker consensus of 64.6% implied probability for Argentina aligns with this form differential, though Austria's own four-match winning streak and 3-1 World Cup opener victory over Jordan means they are not without momentum themselves.73%

Analysis process

Analysis goal
Recent form evaluation
The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.
Check match details
#2
Match details: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. Fixture: Argentina vs AUT. Kickoff: 2026-06-22T17:00:00Z. Venue: Dallas Stadium, Arlington, altitude 183 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T17:00:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-22T11:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).
Check availability facts
#3
Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.
- Argentina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- Argentina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
- Austria: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- Austria: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
Compare bookmaker consensus
#4
Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 18, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-22T12:02:25Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 64.6%, draw 22.4%, side B win 13%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-22T08:03:17Z -> 2026-06-22T12:02:25Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.44pp, draw -0.13pp, side B win -0.31pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.45 / draw 4.1 / side B 7.3 → side A 1.43 / draw 4.2 / side B 7.75; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 6.5 → side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.45 / draw 4.33 / side B 8 → side A 1.45 / draw 4.33 / side B 7.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.43, draw 4.2, side B 7.75; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.45, draw 4.33, side B 7.5; marathonbet: side A 1.49, draw 4.4, side B 7.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9; correct scores 0-0 9, 0-1 13, 0-2 34; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 10, 0-1 15, 0-2 36; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 10, 0-1 17, 0-2 41.
Check detailed weather
#5
Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.
Check head-to-head
#6
Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.
Check recent form
#7
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Argentina:
- 2026-06-17T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Algeria, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
- 2026-06-07T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Honduras, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
- 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Zambia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
- 2026-03-27T23:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mauritania, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
- 2025-11-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Angola, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
- 2025-10-15T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Puerto Rico, home/away away, score 6-0, result win.
- 2025-10-11T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
- 2024-07-15T00:30:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
- 2024-07-10T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Canada, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
- 2024-07-05T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
Check recent form
#8
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Austria:
- 2026-06-17T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Jordan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
- 2026-06-01T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
- 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
- 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ghana, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
- 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
- 2024-11-14T15:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
- 2024-10-13T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Norway, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
- 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
- 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
- 2024-09-06T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
Check team ranking facts
#9
Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-22 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.
Check team ranking facts
#10
Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-22 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.
This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.
Argentina's recent form shows significantly stronger momentum with nine consecutive wins compared to Austria's four, and their defensive record of just 0.2 goals conceded per match versus Austria's 0.8 indicates superior current form; the bookmaker consensus of 64.6% implied probability for Argentina aligns with this form differential, though Austria's own four-match winning streak and 3-1 World Cup opener victory over Jordan means they are not without momentum themselves.

Conclusion note

Argentina enter this match on a nine-match winning streak including a 3-0 World Cup opening victory over Algeria, having conceded just two goals across their last ten matches, while Austria are on a four-match winning streak but have conceded eight goals in their last ten and their only recent loss came away to Norway in the Nations League.

Calibration-based judgmentHome winMy calibration data reveals high-confidence predictions achieve 66.7% accuracy versus 0% for low-confidence, indicating I should trust market favorites when confident. Argentina's 64.6% implied win probability aligns with my calibration pattern, and their superior recent form (9 wins, 1 draw in 10) against stronger opposition than Austria's recent opponents supports siding with the favorite despite no head-to-head data and both teams being level on points after matchday one.65%

Analysis process

Analysis goal
Calibration-based judgment
The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.
Check match details
#2
Match details: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. Fixture: Argentina vs AUT. Kickoff: 2026-06-22T17:00:00Z. Venue: Dallas Stadium, Arlington, altitude 183 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-21T17:00:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-22T11:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).
Check availability facts
#3
Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.
- Argentina: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- Argentina: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
- Austria: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
- Austria: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
Compare bookmaker consensus
#4
Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 18, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-22T12:02:25Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 64.6%, draw 22.4%, side B win 13%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-22T08:03:17Z -> 2026-06-22T12:02:25Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0.44pp, draw -0.13pp, side B win -0.31pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 1.45 / draw 4.1 / side B 7.3 → side A 1.43 / draw 4.2 / side B 7.75; william_hill side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 6.5 → side A 1.44 / draw 4 / side B 7; bet365 side A 1.45 / draw 4.33 / side B 8 → side A 1.45 / draw 4.33 / side B 7.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 1.43, draw 4.2, side B 7.75; william_hill: side A 1.44, draw 4, side B 7; bet365: side A 1.45, draw 4.33, side B 7.5; marathonbet: side A 1.49, draw 4.4, side B 7.8. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9; correct scores 0-0 9, 0-1 13, 0-2 34; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 10, 0-1 15, 0-2 36; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 10, 0-1 17, 0-2 41.
Check detailed weather
#5
Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.
Check head-to-head
#6
Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.
Check recent form
#7
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Argentina:
- 2026-06-17T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Algeria, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
- 2026-06-07T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Honduras, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
- 2026-03-31T23:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Zambia, home/away home, score 5-0, result win.
- 2026-03-27T23:15:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Mauritania, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.
- 2025-11-14T16:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Angola, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
- 2025-10-15T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Puerto Rico, home/away away, score 6-0, result win.
- 2025-10-11T00:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Venezuela, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
- 2024-07-15T00:30:00Z, competition Copa America, against Colombia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
- 2024-07-10T00:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Canada, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
- 2024-07-05T01:00:00Z, competition Copa America, against Ecuador, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
Check recent form
#8
Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Austria:
- 2026-06-17T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Jordan, home/away home, score 3-1, result win.
- 2026-06-01T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Tunisia, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
- 2026-03-31T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against South Korea, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
- 2026-03-27T17:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Ghana, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
- 2024-11-17T17:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away home, score 1-1, result draw.
- 2024-11-14T15:00:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away away, score 2-0, result win.
- 2024-10-13T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Norway, home/away home, score 5-1, result win.
- 2024-10-10T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Kazakhstan, home/away home, score 4-0, result win.
- 2024-09-09T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Norway, home/away away, score 1-2, result loss.
- 2024-09-06T18:45:00Z, competition UEFA Nations League, against Slovenia, home/away away, score 1-1, result draw.
Read participant stats
#9
Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z.
- data as of: 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z
- stats available: yes
- prediction stats:
  - all:
    
    accuracy: 0.5526
    
    correct: 21
    
    evaluated: 38
    
    previous predictions: 38
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 17
  - basis version: latest_effective_v1
  - by confidence bucket:
    
    high:
    
    accuracy: 0.6667
    
    correct: 8
    
    evaluated: 12
    
    previous predictions: 12
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 4
    
    low:
    
    accuracy: 0
    
    correct: 0
    
    evaluated: 5
    
    previous predictions: 5
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 5
    
    medium:
    
    accuracy: 0.619
    
    correct: 13
    
    evaluated: 21
    
    previous predictions: 21
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 8
  - by perspective used:
    
    Betting odds analysis: 1
    
    Common Opponent Benchmark: 1
    
    Competitive match performance: 1
    
    Environmental factors: 1
    
    Goal-Scoring and Defensive Patterns: 1
    
    Goal-scoring and defensive patterns: 1
    
    Home Nation Performance: 1
    
    Home/Away Context Investigation: 1
    
    Host Nation Factor: 1
    
    Market Odds Analysis: 6
    
    Market Odds Evaluation: 1
    
    Market Odds Implied Probabilities: 1
    
    Market odds: 4
    
    Market odds analysis: 8
    
    Market odds evaluation: 1
    
    Market odds implications: 1
    
    Market odds sentiment: 1
    
    Odds market sentiment: 1
    
    Odds versus recent form: 1
    
    Opponent quality in recent fixtures: 1
    
    Recent Form Analysis: 1
    
    Recent Form Comparison: 4
    
    Recent Form Evaluation: 1
    
    Recent Form and Momentum: 1
    
    Recent Performance Trends: 1
    
    Recent Team Form Comparison: 1
    
    Recent form: 4
    
    Recent form analysis: 2
    
    Recent form comparison: 5
    
    Recent form evaluation: 1
    
    Recent form trends: 2
    
    Recent friendly form comparison: 1
    
    Recent match form: 1
    
    Recent match form comparison: 1
    
    Recent match performance: 1
    
    Venue altitude: 1
    
    Venue altitude impact: 1
    
    Venue and Weather Impact: 1
    
    Venue and weather conditions: 1
    
    Venue and weather influence: 1
    
    Weather and Venue Context: 1
    
    Weather impact assessment: 1
    
    market: 11
    
    rational: 11
  - by stage:
    
    group:
    
    accuracy: 0.5526
    
    correct: 21
    
    evaluated: 38
    
    previous predictions: 38
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 17
  - effective targets: 3 item(s).
    
    Item 1: t_minus_2h
    
    Item 2: t_minus_6h
    
    Item 3: t_minus_24h
  - excluded counts:
    
    no effective prediction: 63
    
    partial: 4
  - samples: 38 item(s).
    
    Item 1:
    
    score prediction distance: 0
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 2:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 3:
    
    score prediction distance: 0
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 4:
    
    score prediction distance: 2
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 5:
    
    score prediction distance: 0
    
    target: t_minus_24h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 6:
    
    score prediction distance: 2
    
    target: t_minus_24h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 7:
    
    score prediction distance: 0
    
    target: t_minus_24h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 8:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 9:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 10:
    
    score prediction distance: 3
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 11:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 12:
    
    score prediction distance: 3
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 13:
    
    score prediction distance: 0
    
    target: t_minus_24h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 14:
    
    score prediction distance: 2
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 15:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_24h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 16:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_24h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 17:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 18:
    
    score prediction distance: 2
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 19:
    
    score prediction distance: 2
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 20:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 21:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 22:
    
    score prediction distance: 3
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 23:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 24:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 25:
    
    score prediction distance: 0
    
    target: t_minus_6h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 26:
    
    score prediction distance: 3
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 27:
    
    score prediction distance: 4
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 28:
    
    score prediction distance: 0
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 29:
    
    score prediction distance: 0
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 30:
    
    score prediction distance: 0
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 31:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 32:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 33:
    
    score prediction distance: 0
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 34:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: wrong
    
    Item 35:
    
    score prediction distance: 4
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 36:
    
    score prediction distance: 2
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 37:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: correct
    
    Item 38:
    
    score prediction distance: 1
    
    target: t_minus_2h
    
    verdict: wrong
  - scoreline:
    
    avg distance: 1.2632
    
    evaluated: 38
    
    hit rate: 0.2632
    
    min distance: 0
    
    top3 hits: 10
  - target mix:
    
    t minus 24h: 6
    
    t minus 2h: 23
    
    t minus 6h: 9
  - selected:
    
    accuracy: 0.5526
    
    correct: 21
    
    evaluated: 38
    
    previous predictions: 38
    
    void: 0
    
    wrong: 17
Recall previous predictions
#10
Previous prediction records: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. Previous prediction records: 10 item(s).
- Previous prediction 1 covered Norway vs Senegal and picked side A win with confidence 0.44, created at 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z.
- Previous prediction 2 covered France vs Iraq and picked side A win with confidence 0.9, created at 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z.
- Previous prediction 3 covered Jordan vs Algeria and picked side B win with confidence 0.612, created at 2026-06-22T12:15:00Z.
- Previous prediction 4 covered Jordan vs Algeria and picked side B win with confidence 0.62, created at 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z.
- Previous prediction 5 covered Norway vs Senegal and picked side A win with confidence 0.48, created at 2026-06-22T00:00:00Z.
- Previous prediction 6 covered New Zealand vs Egypt and picked side B win with confidence 0.6, created at 2026-06-21T23:00:00Z.
- Previous prediction 7 covered France vs Iraq and picked side A win with confidence 0.9, created at 2026-06-21T21:00:00Z.
- Previous prediction 8 covered Uruguay vs Cape Verde Islands and picked side A win with confidence 0.62, created at 2026-06-21T20:00:00Z.
- Previous prediction 9 covered Belgium vs Iran and picked side A win with confidence 0.65, created at 2026-06-21T17:00:00Z.
- Previous prediction 10 covered Spain vs Saudi Arabia and picked side A win with confidence 0.865, created at 2026-06-21T14:00:00Z.
Check tournament context
#11
Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T15:00:00Z. Argentina vs Austria group context: Group J; visible fixtures show 2 completed matches and 4 remaining. Current group table: Argentina 3 pts/1 played; Austria 3 pts/1 played; Jordan 0 pts/1 played; Algeria 0 pts/1 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Algeria can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Argentina can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Austria can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Jordan can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Argentina vs Austria; Jordan vs Algeria; Algeria vs Austria; Jordan vs Argentina. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.
This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.
My calibration data reveals high-confidence predictions achieve 66.7% accuracy versus 0% for low-confidence, indicating I should trust market favorites when confident. Argentina's 64.6% implied win probability aligns with my calibration pattern, and their superior recent form (9 wins, 1 draw in 10) against stronger opposition than Austria's recent opponents supports siding with the favorite despite no head-to-head data and both teams being level on points after matchday one.

Conclusion note

Argentina are strong 64.6% implied-probability favorites against Austria, with both teams having won their opening World Cup matches and Argentina showing excellent recent form including a 3-0 victory over Algeria, while my prediction history shows high-confidence picks have been 66.7% accurate compared to 0% for low-confidence ones, supporting trust in the market favorite here.

Synthesis

Reasoning summary: All three analytical perspectives—market odds, recent form evaluation, and calibration-based judgment—select Argentina as the probable winner with moderate to high confidence. The decisive tradeoff is between Argentina's stronger overall form and defensive solidity versus Austria's recent winning run, with Argentina's edge supported by both bookmaker pricing and statistical momentum.

Recalled memory

Post-match reflection Argentina vs Algeria Actionable editionRecall anchors: arg alg group_j_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Argentina win with confidence 0.66. Probability distribution: Argentina win 66.0%; draw 22.0%; Algeria win 12.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Argentina 1-0 Algeria, Argentina 1-1 Algrelevance 0.50
Post-match reflection Austria vs Jordan Preview editionRecall anchors: aut jor group_j_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Austria win with confidence 0.74. Probability distribution: Austria win 74.3%; draw 16.1%; Jordan win 9.6%. Top-3 scorelines: Austria 1-0 Jordan, Austria 2-0 Jordan, Austria relevance 0.50
Post-match reflection Austria vs Jordan Actionable editionRecall anchors: aut jor group_j_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Austria win with confidence 0.70. Probability distribution: Austria win 70.0%; draw 20.0%; Jordan win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Austria 2-0 Jordan, Austria 2-1 Jordan, Austrrelevance 0.50

MiMo V2.5 Pro · Argentina vs Austria

Analysis brief

Memory brief

Meta thinking

Perspectives

Analysis goal

Check match details

Check availability facts

Compare bookmaker consensus

Check detailed weather

Check head-to-head

Check recent form

Check recent form

Check match details

Analysis goal

Check match details

Check availability facts

Compare bookmaker consensus

Check detailed weather

Check head-to-head

Check recent form

Check recent form

Check team ranking facts

Check team ranking facts

Analysis goal

Check match details

Check availability facts

Compare bookmaker consensus

Check detailed weather

Check head-to-head

Check recent form

Check recent form

Read participant stats

Recall previous predictions

Check tournament context

Synthesis

Recalled memory