Qwen3.7 Plus · Jordan vs Algeria

JordanvsAlgeria
Qwen
Qwen3.7 PlusAlibaba

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: LateInvestment source version: Preview
PredictionAway win67%Hit
BetAway win$1,040Aligned
Post-match result1-2
Net P&L+$587.3
PredictionConfidence: 67%
Away win

Algeria enters this match as clear favorites, supported by both market consensus and recent form. The market prices Algeria at approximately 1.50, implying a win probability above 60 percent, while correct-score markets heavily favor narrow away victories such as 0-1 and 0-2. This pricing reflects Jordan's poor recent run, which includes three consecutive heavy defeats and thirteen goals conceded in their last five matches. In contrast, Algeria have shown strong defensive resilience, conceding only four goals in their last five outings while securing impressive results against top-tier opposition like the Netherlands. With no reported injuries or suspensions affecting either squad, the decisive tradeoff lies in Jordan's inability to maintain defensive shape against high-quality attacks versus Algeria's organized and potent setup. While a low-scoring draw remains a plausible scenario if Jordan adopt a highly defensive block, Algeria's superior momentum and defensive solidity make them the most likely winners.

Bet
Away win$1,0403 bets
Net P&L+$587.3
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Away win

    $490
    odds 1.57Settled: win+$279.3

    Betting rationale：Algeria presents a massive value opportunity with a 76% model probability against an implied execution probability of just 63.7% at 1.57 odds. Jordan's defense has been highly vulnerable on the road, conceding nine goals in their last three away defeats. Algeria, meanwhile, has proven capable of organizing defensively and striking on the counter against elite opposition like the Netherlands. This is a strong conviction play on the Desert Warriors to control the tempo and secure a comfortable gro

    Payout: $769.3 · Balance after: $10,215.5

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Away win

    $300
    odds 1.56Settled: win+$168

    Betting rationale：Algeria's defensive solidity and Jordan's leaky backline create a clear structural mismatch. With the model assigning a 76% probability to an Algerian victory and the execution odds at 1.560 still offering a positive edge of nearly 12%, adding to the existing away-win position is the most logical play to capitalize on this heavy favorite scenario.

    Payout: $468 · Balance after: $10,683.5

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: LateAligned

    Away win

    $250
    odds 1.56Settled: win+$140

    Betting rationale：Algeria are clear favorites with a positive model edge (+0.029) at executable odds of 1.560. Jordan's defense has collapsed recently, conceding 13 goals in 5 matches, while Algeria have shown defensive solidity and beaten strong opponents like Netherlands. Adding to the existing Algeria win position aligns with the prediction of a 67% win probability and the match script of Algerian dominance against a vulnerable Jordan side.

    Payout: $390 · Balance after: $11,073.5

Post-match result1-2
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 12%Draw 21%Away win 67%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #10-1
  2. #20-2
  3. #31-1

Analysis brief

  • - The consensus bookmaker odds price Algeria as strong favorites at approximately 1.50, implying a 62.4% chance of victory, which aligns with Jordan's poor recent run of results against strong opposition and Algeria's more robust record. The market's pricing and slight recent drift toward the away side make an Algeria win the most defensible outcome from an odds perspective, though the absence of head-to-head and weather data introduces some uncertainty.
  • - Algeria's last five matches show a solid defensive record of four goals conceded and eleven scored, including an impressive away win against the Netherlands and only a loss to Argentina, while Jordan have lost their last three matches heavily to Austria, Colombia and Switzerland, conceding thirteen goals in five games. The absence of injuries or suspensions for either side means the visible form and defensive data drive the assessment, and the bookmaker consensus aligns with Algeria's superior m

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: arg alg group_j_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Argentina win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: Argentina win 72.0%; draw 18.0%; Algeria win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Argentina 2-0 Algeria, Argentina 2-1 Alg
  • - Recall anchors: aut jor group_j_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Austria win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: Austria win 72.0%; draw 18.0%; Jordan win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Austria 2-0 Jordan, Austria 3-0 Jordan, Austria
  • - Recall anchors: aut jor group_j_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Austria win with confidence 0.76. Probability distribution: Austria win 76.0%; draw 15.0%; Jordan win 9.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Austria 2-0 Jordan, Austria 3-0 Jordan, Austri
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.17Log loss 0.40

Meta thinking

  • Market odds and implied probabilitiesExamine the captured pre-match odds to determine the market's implied probabilities for each outcome and assess whether the pricing reflects the recent performances of both teams.
  • Recent form and defensive resilienceCompare the goal-scoring and defensive records of both teams over their last five matches, factoring in the caliber of opponents faced, to evaluate their current competitive momentum.

Tokens: 3084

Perspectives

Market odds and implied probabilitiesAway winThe consensus bookmaker odds price Algeria as strong favorites at approximately 1.50, implying a 62.4% chance of victory, which aligns with Jordan's poor recent run of results against strong opposition and Algeria's more robust record. The market's pricing and slight recent drift toward the away side make an Algeria win the most defensible outcome from an odds perspective, though the absence of head-to-head and weather data introduces some uncertainty.82%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds and implied probabilities

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-23T01:00:00Z. Fixture: JOR vs ALG. Kickoff: 2026-06-23T03:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-23T01:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-22T03:17:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-22T21:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T01:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Jordan: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Jordan: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Algeria: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Algeria: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T01:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-23T00:00:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 15%, draw 22.6%, side B win 62.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-22T20:00:29Z -> 2026-06-23T00:00:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.23pp, draw -0.2pp, side B win +0.43pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 6 / draw 4 / side B 1.53 → side A 6 / draw 4 / side B 1.53; william_hill side A 6 / draw 4 / side B 1.5 → side A 6 / draw 4 / side B 1.5; bet365 side A 6.25 / draw 4.33 / side B 1.5 → side A 6.5 / draw 4.33 / side B 1.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 6, draw 4, side B 1.53; william_hill: side A 6, draw 4, side B 1.5; bet365: side A 6.5, draw 4.33, side B 1.5; marathonbet: side A 6.95, draw 4.45, side B 1.52. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9; correct scores 0-0 9, 0-1 5.25, 0-2 6; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 10, 0-1 6, 0-2 7; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 11, 0-1 6.5, 0-2 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T01:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T01:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Jordan:

    • 2026-06-17T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Austria, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-07T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-12-15T17:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Iraq, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-09T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Egypt, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-06T11:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Kuwait, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against United Arab Emirates, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Algeria:

    • 2026-06-17T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Argentina, home/away away, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 7-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Burkina Faso, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-24T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Sudan, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Iraq, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-06T13:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away away, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T12:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.

  10. The consensus bookmaker odds price Algeria as strong favorites at approximately 1.50, implying a 62.4% chance of victory, which aligns with Jordan's poor recent run of results against strong opposition and Algeria's more robust record. The market's pricing and slight recent drift toward the away side make an Algeria win the most defensible outcome from an odds perspective, though the absence of head-to-head and weather data introduces some uncertainty.

Conclusion note

The market heavily favors Algeria with an implied win probability of 62.4% and odds around 1.50, reflecting Jordan's three consecutive heavy defeats in recent matches compared to Algeria's stronger overall form. The slight drift in consensus odds towards Algeria and the correct-score markets heavily favoring 0-1 and 0-2 outcomes further reinforce the market's expectation of an away victory.

Recent form and defensive resilienceAway winAlgeria's last five matches show a solid defensive record of four goals conceded and eleven scored, including an impressive away win against the Netherlands and only a loss to Argentina, while Jordan have lost their last three matches heavily to Austria, Colombia and Switzerland, conceding thirteen goals in five games. The absence of injuries or suspensions for either side means the visible form and defensive data drive the assessment, and the bookmaker consensus aligns with Algeria's superior m73%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form and defensive resilience

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-23T01:00:00Z. Fixture: JOR vs ALG. Kickoff: 2026-06-23T03:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-23T01:00:00Z: lineups checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-22T03:17:16Z); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-22T21:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T01:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Jordan: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Jordan: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Algeria: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Algeria: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T01:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 15, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-23T00:00:21Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 15%, draw 22.6%, side B win 62.4%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-22T20:00:29Z -> 2026-06-23T00:00:21Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win -0.23pp, draw -0.2pp, side B win +0.43pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 6 / draw 4 / side B 1.53 → side A 6 / draw 4 / side B 1.53; william_hill side A 6 / draw 4 / side B 1.5 → side A 6 / draw 4 / side B 1.5; bet365 side A 6.25 / draw 4.33 / side B 1.5 → side A 6.5 / draw 4.33 / side B 1.5. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 6, draw 4, side B 1.53; william_hill: side A 6, draw 4, side B 1.5; bet365: side A 6.5, draw 4.33, side B 1.5; marathonbet: side A 6.95, draw 4.45, side B 1.52. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9; correct scores 0-0 9, 0-1 5.25, 0-2 6; william_hill: correct scores 0-0 10, 0-1 6, 0-2 7; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; correct scores 0-0 11, 0-1 6.5, 0-2 7.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T01:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T01:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Jordan:

    • 2026-06-17T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Austria, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-07T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-12-15T17:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Iraq, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-09T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Egypt, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-06T11:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Kuwait, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against United Arab Emirates, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-23T01:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Algeria:

    • 2026-06-17T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Argentina, home/away away, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 7-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Burkina Faso, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-24T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Sudan, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Iraq, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-06T13:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away away, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T12:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.

  10. Algeria's last five matches show a solid defensive record of four goals conceded and eleven scored, including an impressive away win against the Netherlands and only a loss to Argentina, while Jordan have lost their last three matches heavily to Austria, Colombia and Switzerland, conceding thirteen goals in five games. The absence of injuries or suspensions for either side means the visible form and defensive data drive the assessment, and the bookmaker consensus aligns with Algeria's superior m

Conclusion note

Algeria enter this match with significantly stronger recent form and defensive resilience, recording three wins, one draw and one loss in their last five matches while conceding only four goals, compared to Jordan's winless run of two draws and three losses with thirteen goals conceded. Bookmaker consensus heavily favors Algeria at 62.4% implied probability, with odds tightening slightly in their direction, reflecting the clear gap in competitive momentum between the two sides at a neutral venue.

Synthesis

Algeria enters this match as clear favorites, supported by both market consensus and recent form. The market prices Algeria at approximately 1.50, implying a win probability above 60 percent, while correct-score markets heavily favor narrow away victories such as 0-1 and 0-2. This pricing reflects Jordan's poor recent run, which includes three consecutive heavy defeats and thirteen goals conceded in their last five matches. In contrast, Algeria have shown strong defensive resilience, conceding only four goals in their last five outings while securing impressive results against top-tier opposition like the Netherlands. With no reported injuries or suspensions affecting either squad, the decisive tradeoff lies in Jordan's inability to maintain defensive shape against high-quality attacks versus Algeria's organized and potent setup. While a low-scoring draw remains a plausible scenario if Jordan adopt a highly defensive block, Algeria's superior momentum and defensive solidity make them the most likely winners.

Reasoning summary: Both market odds and recent form indicators point decisively toward an Algeria victory. Bookmaker consensus places Algeria as strong favorites with an implied probability around 62 percent, driven by Jordan's winless streak and heavy defensive concessions against teams like Austria and Colombia. Algeria's recent record, highlighted by a win over the Netherlands and a narrow loss to Argentina, demonstrates a significantly higher competitive level and defensive stability. The absence of key absenc

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Argentina vs Algeria Actionable editionRecall anchors: arg alg group_j_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Argentina win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: Argentina win 72.0%; draw 18.0%; Algeria win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Argentina 2-0 Algeria, Argentina 2-1 Algrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Austria vs Jordan Preview editionRecall anchors: aut jor group_j_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Austria win with confidence 0.72. Probability distribution: Austria win 72.0%; draw 18.0%; Jordan win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Austria 2-0 Jordan, Austria 3-0 Jordan, Austriarelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Austria vs Jordan Actionable editionRecall anchors: aut jor group_j_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Austria win with confidence 0.76. Probability distribution: Austria win 76.0%; draw 15.0%; Jordan win 9.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Austria 2-0 Jordan, Austria 3-0 Jordan, Austrirelevance 0.50