DeepSeek V4 Pro · Jordan vs Algeria

JordanvsAlgeria
DeepSeek
DeepSeek V4 ProDeepseek

Match prediction and investment

This model's call and betting decision for the same match.

Current prediction version: Preview
PredictionAway win62%Hit
BetAway win$720Aligned
Post-match result1-2
Net P&L+$329.9
PredictionConfidence: 62%
Away win

Algeria enter the match as clear favorites based on their recent attacking form and Jordan’s defensive struggles. While the match is at a neutral venue and both sides lost their opening group games, Algeria’s three clean sheets and 11 goals in their last five outings – including a friendly win over the Netherlands – contrast sharply with Jordan conceding 13 times across the same span. Market odds imply a roughly 61% chance of an Algeria victory, and both independent analyses concur, with no reported injuries or suspensions on either side. The most likely scenario is a comfortable Algerian win, potentially by a two-goal margin.

Bet
Away win$7203 bets
Net P&L+$329.9
  • Away win1X2Source prediction: PreviewAligned

    Away win

    $470
    odds 1.57Settled: win+$267.9

    Betting rationale：Algeria are the class side here. They've beaten the Netherlands and crushed Guatemala and Equatorial Guinea, while Jordan have shipped 13 goals in five matches, including against Austria and Colombia. The model gives Algeria a 62% win probability, and the match script says they bounce back from the Argentina loss with a controlled, professional victory against a defensively fragile opponent. At 1.57 the price is fair rather than fat, but the football story is loud enough to back. This is a moder

    Payout: $737.9 · Balance after: $12,164.5

  • Away win1X2Source prediction: ActionableAligned

    Away win

    $200
    odds 1.56Settled: win+$112

    Betting rationale：Favorite conviction building on existing position. Algeria are a class above Jordan — they beat Netherlands away and drew with Uruguay; Jordan have conceded 3+ goals in three of their last five, including against Austria and Switzerland. After a 0-3 loss to Argentina, Algeria need points to stay on track for the knockout stage. The model assigns 65% win probability, scorelines of 0-1 and 0-2, and a small positive edge vs Pinnacle. The match script is one-way traffic with Algeria controlling temp

    Payout: $312 · Balance after: $12,476.5

  • Correct score 0-1Correct scoreSource prediction: Late

    Correct score 0-1

    $50
    odds 6.00Settled: loss-$50

    Betting rationale：Posture: calculated conviction with a satellite score play. The match script: Algeria control from the opening whistle, Jordan sit deep and absorb pressure, but a first-half set-piece or a moment of individual quality unlocks them. Algeria's recent 1-0 away win over the Netherlands shows they can grind narrow results; Jordan conceded three to Austria and look fragile. The model's top predicted score is 0-1, and 6.00 on the execution market offers a nice asymmetric payout to complement the existi

    Payout: $0 · Balance after: $12,476.5

Post-match result1-2
Outcome hitScoreline missedClosest off by 1 goals
3-way probabilityTop pick: Away win
Home win 15%Draw 23%Away win 62%
Scoreline predictionsdistance 1
  1. #10-2
  2. #20-3
  3. #30-1

Analysis brief

  • - Recent form strongly favours Algeria: Jordan's last five matches yielded 6 goals scored and 13 conceded, with multiple-goal losses in three of those games, while Algeria posted three clean sheets and 11 goals in the same span. The consensus odds give Algeria a 60.6% implied win probability, and no injuries or suspensions are reported for either side. The neutral venue and both teams' need for points after opening losses do not outweigh the clear defensive and attacking disparity, making an Alger
  • - Consensus odds from 14 bookmakers give Algeria a 60.6% implied probability, signaling a clear favorite rather than a closely fought contest. Algeria's stronger recent results against high-level opponents and Jordan's struggles outside regional competition reinforce the market view. No meaningful odds movement or discrepancies suggest value elsewhere; the stable prices and form gap point convincingly to an Algeria win.

Memory brief

  • - Recall anchors: arg alg group_j_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Argentina win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: Argentina win 65.0%; draw 22.0%; Algeria win 13.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Argentina 2-0 Algeria, Argentina 1-0 Alg
  • - Recall anchors: aut jor group_j_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Austria win with confidence 0.75. Probability distribution: Austria win 75.0%; draw 18.0%; Jordan win 7.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Austria 2-0 Jordan, Austria 1-0 Jordan, Austria
  • - Recall anchors: aut jor group_j_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Austria win with confidence 0.70. Probability distribution: Austria win 70.0%; draw 20.0%; Jordan win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Austria 2-0 Jordan, Austria 3-0 Jordan, Austr
This prediction's input statusKey inputs recorded for this predictionBrier 0.22Log loss 0.48

Meta thinking

  • Recent form and defensive vulnerabilitiesCompare goals conceded and scored across the last five matches for each side. Jordan suffered multiple-goal defeats against Austria, Colombia, and Switzerland, while Algeria blanked the Netherlands and scored seven against Guatemala. This perspective investigates whether the pattern of conceding early or late goals persists and how each team's attack matches up against the other's defensive record.
  • Market odds implied probabilitiesExtract the implied probabilities from the 14 captured odds for a Jordan win, draw, and Algeria win. Assess whether the market prices in a dominant favorite or anticipates a closely fought contest, and note any discrepancies that might signal value.

Tokens: 5237

Perspectives

Recent form and defensive vulnerabilitiesAway winRecent form strongly favours Algeria: Jordan's last five matches yielded 6 goals scored and 13 conceded, with multiple-goal losses in three of those games, while Algeria posted three clean sheets and 11 goals in the same span. The consensus odds give Algeria a 60.6% implied win probability, and no injuries or suspensions are reported for either side. The neutral venue and both teams' need for points after opening losses do not outweigh the clear defensive and attacking disparity, making an Alger65%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Recent form and defensive vulnerabilities

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z. Fixture: JOR vs ALG. Kickoff: 2026-06-23T03:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Jordan: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Jordan: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Algeria: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Algeria: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-22T00:15:09Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 16.1%, draw 23.4%, side B win 60.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-21T20:03:23Z -> 2026-06-22T00:15:09Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 6 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.55 → side A 6 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.55; william_hill side A 5.5 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.57 → side A 5.5 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.57; bet365 side A 5.75 / draw 4.33 / side B 1.53 → side A 5.75 / draw 4.33 / side B 1.53. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 6, draw 3.9, side B 1.55; william_hill: side A 5.5, draw 3.8, side B 1.57; bet365: side A 5.75, draw 4.33, side B 1.53; marathonbet: side A 6.2, draw 4.1, side B 1.57. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 9.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Jordan:

    • 2026-06-17T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Austria, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-07T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-12-15T17:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Iraq, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-09T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Egypt, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-06T11:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Kuwait, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against United Arab Emirates, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Algeria:

    • 2026-06-17T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Argentina, home/away away, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 7-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Burkina Faso, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-24T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Sudan, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Iraq, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-06T13:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away away, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T12:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.

  10. Check team process facts

    #9

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  11. Check team process facts

    #10

    Team process facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z. the team's recent match process facts are unavailable: the corresponding data is unavailable.

  12. Check tournament context

    #11

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z. Jordan vs Algeria group context: Group J; visible fixtures show 2 completed matches and 4 remaining. Current group table: Argentina 3 pts/1 played; Austria 3 pts/1 played; Jordan 0 pts/1 played; Algeria 0 pts/1 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Algeria can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Argentina can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Austria can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Jordan can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Argentina vs Austria; Jordan vs Algeria; Algeria vs Austria; Jordan vs Argentina. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  13. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  14. Recent form strongly favours Algeria: Jordan's last five matches yielded 6 goals scored and 13 conceded, with multiple-goal losses in three of those games, while Algeria posted three clean sheets and 11 goals in the same span. The consensus odds give Algeria a 60.6% implied win probability, and no injuries or suspensions are reported for either side. The neutral venue and both teams' need for points after opening losses do not outweigh the clear defensive and attacking disparity, making an Alger

Conclusion note

Jordan have conceded 13 goals in their last five matches, including heavy defeats to Austria, Colombia and Switzerland, while Algeria have kept three clean sheets in their last five and scored 11 goals, notably thrashing Guatemala 7-0 and beating the Netherlands 1-0. Bookmaker odds also reflect this gap, implying a 60.6% chance of an Algeria win, which aligns with the defensive fragility Jordan have shown recently.

Market odds implied probabilitiesAway winConsensus odds from 14 bookmakers give Algeria a 60.6% implied probability, signaling a clear favorite rather than a closely fought contest. Algeria's stronger recent results against high-level opponents and Jordan's struggles outside regional competition reinforce the market view. No meaningful odds movement or discrepancies suggest value elsewhere; the stable prices and form gap point convincingly to an Algeria win.60%
Analysis process

  1. Analysis goal

    Market odds implied probabilities

  2. The harness read the minimum pre-match evidence from the snapshot: match details, availability facts, odds, weather, head-to-head records and both teams' recent form.

  3. Check match details

    #2

    Match details: Data as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z. Fixture: JOR vs ALG. Kickoff: 2026-06-23T03:00:00Z. Venue: San Francisco Bay Area Stadium, Santa Clara, altitude 12 m. Home/host context: schedule-listed home side. Field capture status as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z: lineups not captured (not captured before the match); injuries checked (source returned no rows, last checked at 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z); weather not captured (not captured); h2h not captured (source returned no rows); odds captured (14 observed); events not captured (post-match only); statistics not captured (post-match only); fixture players not captured (post-match only); live odds not captured (not captured before the match); result not captured (post-match only).

  4. Check availability facts

    #3

    Tool facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z. Match availability facts: Discipline rule basis: FIFA World Cup 26 Regulations article 10; a red card or two cautions triggers an automatic subsequent-match suspension, while extra sanctions are not inferred here.

    • Jordan: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Jordan: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.
    • Algeria: no visible injury records in this snapshot.
    • Algeria: no suspension records derived from prior cards in this snapshot.

  5. Compare bookmaker consensus

    #4

    Odds consensus facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z. Visible odds update points: 8, covering 14 bookmaker sample(s). Latest odds update time: 2026-06-22T00:15:09Z. Latest consensus implied probabilities: side A win 16.1%, draw 23.4%, side B win 60.6%. Most recent visible updates: 2026-06-21T20:03:23Z -> 2026-06-22T00:15:09Z. Consensus implied probability movement: side A win +0pp, draw +0pp, side B win +0pp. Representative 1X2 line movement: 10bet side A 6 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.55 → side A 6 / draw 3.9 / side B 1.55; william_hill side A 5.5 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.57 → side A 5.5 / draw 3.8 / side B 1.57; bet365 side A 5.75 / draw 4.33 / side B 1.53 → side A 5.75 / draw 4.33 / side B 1.53. Latest bookmaker samples: 10bet: side A 6, draw 3.9, side B 1.55; william_hill: side A 5.5, draw 3.8, side B 1.57; bet365: side A 5.75, draw 4.33, side B 1.53; marathonbet: side A 6.2, draw 4.1, side B 1.57. Extended market samples: 10bet: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 9; bet365: total 0.5 over 1.05 / under 11; marathonbet: total 0.75 over 1.01 / under 9.6.

  6. Check detailed weather

    #5

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  7. Check head-to-head

    #6

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  8. Check recent form

    #7

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Jordan:

    • 2026-06-17T04:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Austria, home/away away, score 1-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-07T23:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Colombia, home/away away, score 0-2, result loss.
    • 2026-05-31T13:00:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Switzerland, home/away away, score 1-4, result loss.
    • 2026-03-31T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Nigeria, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T17:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Costa Rica, home/away home, score 2-2, result draw.
    • 2025-12-15T17:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Saudi Arabia, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-12T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Iraq, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-09T14:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Egypt, home/away away, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-06T11:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Kuwait, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against United Arab Emirates, home/away home, score 2-1, result win.

  9. Check recent form

    #8

    Recent form facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z. 10 visible recent match record(s) for Algeria:

    • 2026-06-17T01:00:00Z, competition World Cup 2026, against Argentina, home/away away, score 0-3, result loss.
    • 2026-06-03T18:45:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Netherlands, home/away away, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2026-03-31T18:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Uruguay, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.
    • 2026-03-27T19:30:00Z, competition Friendlies, against Guatemala, home/away home, score 7-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-31T16:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Equatorial Guinea, home/away away, score 3-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-28T17:30:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Burkina Faso, home/away home, score 1-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-24T15:00:00Z, competition Africa Cup of Nations, against Sudan, home/away home, score 3-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-09T17:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Iraq, home/away home, score 2-0, result win.
    • 2025-12-06T13:30:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Bahrain, home/away away, score 5-1, result win.
    • 2025-12-03T12:00:00Z, competition Arab Cup, against Sudan, home/away home, score 0-0, result draw.

  10. Check head-to-head

    #9

    Head-to-head facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z. head-to-head records: no visible records available.

  11. Check detailed weather

    #10

    Weather forecast facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z. Weather forecast is not captured yet.

  12. Check team ranking facts

    #11

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-23 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  13. Check team ranking facts

    #12

    Team ranking facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z. the team's FIFA men's ranking before target date 2026-06-23 is unavailable: ranking data is unavailable.

  14. Check tournament context

    #13

    Tournament context facts: Data as of 2026-06-22T03:00:00Z. Jordan vs Algeria group context: Group J; visible fixtures show 2 completed matches and 4 remaining. Current group table: Argentina 3 pts/1 played; Austria 3 pts/1 played; Jordan 0 pts/1 played; Algeria 0 pts/1 played. Points scenario rank ranges: Algeria can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Argentina can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Austria can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible; Jordan can finish from rank 1 to 4; first or second place remains possible. Remaining fixtures: Argentina vs Austria; Jordan vs Algeria; Algeria vs Austria; Jordan vs Argentina. Calculation notes: rank ranges enumerate points only and do not assert tie-breaks；cross-group third-place comparison is not asserted.

  15. This perspective conclusion is based on public tool evidence.

  16. Consensus odds from 14 bookmakers give Algeria a 60.6% implied probability, signaling a clear favorite rather than a closely fought contest. Algeria's stronger recent results against high-level opponents and Jordan's struggles outside regional competition reinforce the market view. No meaningful odds movement or discrepancies suggest value elsewhere; the stable prices and form gap point convincingly to an Algeria win.

Conclusion note

The 14 bookmaker odds imply a 60.6% chance for an Algeria win, 23.4% for a draw, and just 16.1% for a Jordan win, pricing Algeria as a dominant favorite. Algeria's recent form — including a friendly win over the Netherlands and a competitive loss only to Argentina — supports the market's assessment, while Jordan has lost three of its last four matches against World Cup-level opponents.

Synthesis

Algeria enter the match as clear favorites based on their recent attacking form and Jordan’s defensive struggles. While the match is at a neutral venue and both sides lost their opening group games, Algeria’s three clean sheets and 11 goals in their last five outings – including a friendly win over the Netherlands – contrast sharply with Jordan conceding 13 times across the same span. Market odds imply a roughly 61% chance of an Algeria victory, and both independent analyses concur, with no reported injuries or suspensions on either side. The most likely scenario is a comfortable Algerian win, potentially by a two-goal margin.

Reasoning summary: Two independent perspectives strongly favor an Algeria win (confidence 0.65 and 0.60) based on recent form, goal statistics, and consensus odds. Jordan have conceded heavily in recent matches, while Algeria have been solid defensively and prolific in attack. No contradictory signals are present, and the market odds align with the form analysis. The prediction therefore sides with Algeria, with confidence moderated slightly by the inherent uncertainty of a neutral-venue group game.

Recalled memory

  • Post-match reflection Argentina vs Algeria Actionable editionRecall anchors: arg alg group_j_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Argentina win with confidence 0.65. Probability distribution: Argentina win 65.0%; draw 22.0%; Algeria win 13.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Argentina 2-0 Algeria, Argentina 1-0 Algrelevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Austria vs Jordan Preview editionRecall anchors: aut jor group_j_round_1. Prediction window: Preview edition. Visible at: T-24h. Predicted Austria win with confidence 0.75. Probability distribution: Austria win 75.0%; draw 18.0%; Jordan win 7.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Austria 2-0 Jordan, Austria 1-0 Jordan, Austria relevance 0.50
  • Post-match reflection Austria vs Jordan Actionable editionRecall anchors: aut jor group_j_round_1. Prediction window: Actionable edition. Visible at: T-6h. Predicted Austria win with confidence 0.70. Probability distribution: Austria win 70.0%; draw 20.0%; Jordan win 10.0%. Top-3 scorelines: Austria 2-0 Jordan, Austria 3-0 Jordan, Austrrelevance 0.50